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It's been a long time since I've enjoyed an argument like this.
I ask for advice, can I at least enter the competition with this. Or should I still look for it? Then in what direction should I go, what are my mistakes? Thank you in advance.
As for your report, you cannot tell much from averaged data, especially when it is within comfortable limits. Few trades for statistical significance. Very good figures for drawdown, ratio of profitable to losing trades and their average size. Way to go. And what stands out immediately is only 86 trades on M15 since the start of the year. I can only guess, but it looks like you are seriously filtering the signals, achieving a good ratio of profitable to losing trades. That's assuming there are no logical errors in the code leading to rare trades.
I have shown you real tests, that is the best answer to your challenge, and you are still just babbling.
Repeat after me and post your tests on a real trade, that will be at least something out of the nonsense you are talking about.
For example I wonder what makes you think that grail is my Expert Advisor from the real test.
One look is enough for a smart person to see they are DIFFERENT.
Then concerning the Expert Advisor, what for do you need it? It's just a random entry with equal stop levels, it's like you said, but it's not 50/50, so you're making me look like some kind of keeper of Expert Advisors :) You're overheating or something :) How can you keep it if there's nothing in it, posting this nonsense will be just dumbfounding following you.
No credit for now.
How long have you been in the market? A year, two, three? Here's what people who have proven their wealth in this market a long time ago say:
- "I never met a rich technician" - Jim Rogers.
- "I always laugh at people who say, 'I've never met a rich technician', I love it! It's such an arrogant, nonsensical answer. I used fundamental analysis for 9 years and got rich as a technical player" - Mary Schwartz.
- "Diversify your investments" - John Templeton.
- "Diversification is insurance against ignorance" - William O'Neil.
- "Don't try to buy at the bottom" - Peter Lynch.
- "Don't try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top" - Bernard Baruch
- "The trend may be your friend for a few minutes in Chicago, but for the most part, it is rarely the way to get rich" - Jim Rogers.
- "I'm sure the biggest money is made on market reversals. Everyone says you fail by trying to pick tops and bottoms, and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. OK, for twelve years I missed profits in the middle, but I made a lot of money on tops and bottoms." - Paul Tudor Jones.
So here we have a group of people who have all together made billions of dollars trading the market and they can't agree on how to make money. NO ONE!!!!. So, what should we do? Is there anything they really agree on? Just one thing:
- "My basic advice is don't lose money" - Jim Rogers.
- "I'm more concerned about loss management. Learn to accept losses. The most important thing in trading the market is not to let your losses get out of hand" - Mary Schwartz.
- "I always think about losing money as opposed to thinking about making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have" - Paul Tudor Jones.
- "Rule number one in investing is never lose money. Rule number two - never forget rule number one" - Warren Buffett.
There really are many ways to make money in the market. There are thousands of seminars that you can pay for, where the lecturer will tell you how he made $1 billion in the stock market. They will also offer you his sister's book, How I Double My Money Every Hour, which is available in various forms, for only $29.95. They will all tell you about some models that will work at one time and won't at another. Some of you may go long with Jimmy Rogers, while others will do so with Bernard Baruch, but the most critical ingredient in making money in the market is not to lose much. You should always put out stop orders and only lose a fraction. You shouldn't lose too much, because you won't make a penny tomorrow if you suddenly go broke today.
One of the most common mistakes a trader makes is risking all of their capital. There is no quicker way to go broke than to do so. Studies that have been done on this suggest risking no more than 2% of your trading capital in a single trade. And most professionals will tell you that's too much, and they risk 1/4% to 1% in every trade. The idea is that no single trade should impact your entire capital and your entire trade. You're not going to get rich in this case, but you're also not going to find yourself having to sell your house, as has happened more than once to people.
Another advantage of small positions is that they allow you to be worry-free. If you risk a fairly small amount, you won't be 'shaken'. You also won't find yourself in a position where you say "Stop, I can't lose that much money" and you turn a bad trade into a terrible investment. So if you are serious about this, if you want to trade on a long-term basis, then you will practice prudent money management. Before you enter the market, the first thing you should ask yourself is how much risk I am taking in this trade. Remember that we are here to make money, but we can't do anything if we go bust.
The key to surviving is that you must respect the risk, take small positions that will not let you burn out. You must always keep in mind that in trading you are only playing the odds. You can have a model that works correctly 75% of the time, but every trade is a different case. It does not take into account the last trade. If you have a 75% system, you can still be wrong 10 times in a row, and if you trade any amount of time, it will happen sooner or later.
I once thought I'd found a surefire way to make money at roulette. I'd play black and red. I would sit at the table and after the ball fell on black or red 5 times in a row, I would start betting on the opposite colour (so, if it was five reds in a row, I would start betting on black). Then, if I was wrong, I would move on and double up. This means that if I started with $1, the next time I would bet $2, then $4, then $8, $16, etc. Eventually, I would win and win $1. I was 13 at the time and really thought I had found the "Holy Grail Cup". If it was so easy to figure out for a 13 year old, why didn't all the casinos go bankrupt and all the players become millionaires. Because it doesn't work.
If we flip a coin, we have a 50% chance each time that heads will roll, as well as tails. But each flip is independent of the previous one. The next flip of a coin has nothing to do with the previous one. It is pure chance. There is some chance of heads in a series of flips, or tails, but in which of the flips it is pure chance. Every time you flip a coin, it is one coin flip out of billions of flips. That's why you can have 100 eagles in a row if you flip a coin long enough.
That's why the first time I played roulette, black fell 19 times in a row and I came home a loser.
Trading is the same. We have some percentage of our trades that will be successful, and some percentage that will be unsuccessful. But your subsequent trade has nothing to do with the previous one. So, even if you have the most accurate method in the world, after a while you will go bust if you don't practice good money management and risk control.
So, now that we all understand why money management and risk control are very important, let's figure out how to exactly apply these rules to your trading. As I said before, you shouldn't ever risk more than 2% of your account in a single trade. But, as I also said, for most people that's too much, and I am one of that group of most people. I like to keep my risk to around 1%. So let me draw your attention to a risk of 1% of your trading account. For the purposes of this example, let's assume you have a very average account size of $25,000:
Let's say you were looking at the market charts tonight and came across an XYZ chart that looks like it could be a big swing trade, with a buy at 15 3/16. The previous day's low is 14 1/2. That means you would place your stop order at 14 7/16, risking 3/4 point on this trade. By taking $25,000 as your trading account, you could lose up to $250 in a single trade. You will use this value to determine how many lots or contracts you can buy. Assume your number of contracts is up to 333 contracts. Most people don't like doing odd lots, so you can round down to 300. Never round up because in that case you are exceeding your risk tolerance.
Let me offer you some more quotes about risk control:
- "If you have a money-making approach, then money management can make the difference between success and failure. I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'm in the game tomorrow. Risk control plays an essential role." - Monroe Trout
- "If you personify loss with yourself, you can't trade."- Bruce Kovner
- "The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of losses." - Tom Baldwin
- "Never risk more than 1% of your full assets in any trade. Risking 1% is indifferent to any particular trade. Keeping your risk low at all times is absolutely essential." - Larry Hite.
While all of these traders have different methods of making money, each of them agrees that controlling risk is the single most important aspect of trading. These traders are the best in the world and the only thing they agree on is risk control. Think about it.
Anyway, even if it's all nonsense, at least it's from people who mean something, but otherwise... Dogs bark, the caravan goes as they say in the East.
I am not going to respond to your your words, until you confirm them with concrete actions and do not get rid of the stigma you put on yourself.
SZZY: SK is much more specific than Vita Anatoly, take an example from him at least :)
I will not go on with this argument because I don't see any sane interlocutors, think and say what you like.
Thank you very much
for admitting to the switch,
for judging your advisor as "this nonsense",
for hiding it from everyone, just as you hide behind quotes from gurus and idols.
I would have argued with you - you asked so many questions that it is impossible to answer them again! And then it turned out I was not up to the level of sanity. Eh. I guess you ran out of citations and chain letters. Well, if that's all you've got, I'll be off. Goodbye.
SZS: By the way, SK is much more specific than Vita Anatoly, at least take an example from him :)
Since you mentioned me, let me say a few words.
I have followed the discussion with great interest. I must admit I enjoyed it very much!
Vita is absolutely right in all his assertions without exception.
Perhaps the only thing I can reproach him for (no, scold him) is the leniency of some of his wording.
Suppose we have a system, which generates trades with 70% to 30% probability of profit/loss. It doesn't even matter if we know about it. Suppose there were a hundred profitable trades in a row before the next decision was made. I tend to believe that the probability of the outcome of a future trade does not change, but remains the same - 70/30. Probability of outcome is an intrinsic property of MTS, and as long as the MTS remains unchanged, the probability of the outcome of the trade remains the same (as long as the coin is correct, it will fall 50/50 as long as it is not bent, undercut, etc.).
The likelihood of a future deal really does not depend on game account history. This is a fundamental, I would say, fundamental point in the whole argument. But that statement is not just correct, i.e. not "rather yes than no", but exactly the only correct statement. fully and exclusively. So in this case "I lean" is simply a form of speech adopted in context so as not to offend the interlocutor.
For those forum visitors who still have doubts:
Changing the cost of orders cannot influence the outcome of a losing, equally probable or profitable (any) trading system. The "money management" method discussed here (which implies changing the cost of lots according to "mysterious" criteria) is nothing more than a delusion, which has nothing to do with the realities of life.
I won't continue the argument further because I don't see any sane interlocutors, think and say what you want.
The assertion you advocate is a fallacy.
However, you should not take this fact as a personal insult and rudely lash out at your opponents.
There is no reason to turn a decent forum into a buffoonery.
Haven't enjoyed an argument like this in a long time.
Kudos to ST and Vita. I've long suspected that the whole coin and MM mess is a mess, and this is just the topic. All clear, beautiful, convincing.
I have been looking for the grail, like many people here, for a year and a half.
I have tried lots of ideas, but I have nothing to boast about.
I would like to ask the pros to take a look at the Expert Advisor's report. This is the best I have ever done.
I would like your advice, can I at least enter the contest with it? Or do I still have to look for it? Then in what direction to go, what are the mistakes? Thanks in advance.
By the way, on the subject. I think I've figured out MQL4 a little bit. If anyone has any ideas but no understanding of how to program it, please leave your email here and I will reply,
Maybe we can do something together. I won't leave my mailbox for spam protection purposes.
Judging by the size of the deal either the risk is small or the TP is absolute or the money management is not used. I use my EA that manages to do $2500 on EURUSD in the first decade of January with the risk of 10%.
Unfortunately, the summary data does not tell much about the program. A small drawdown may be the result of too large SL, which simply do not work during the testing period. The winning percentage in this case may be just that - SL is too big and therefore there are more winning bets.
Regarding the number of trades. The thing is that we should of course pay attention to this indicator. Because with our small deposits we have nothing to do except for intraday, so we have to focus on open positions from a few minutes to 4-5 days maximum. Fast close positions, however, often mean too close targets, and brokers will be against that. However, every day switch reduces profits because of the cost of maintaining an open position. So you have to think about it all at once. It only makes sense to hold a position for a few days in case of strong trends, when the overhead will clearly be less than the profit. But such positions, judging by your data, you didn't have any.
Otherwise you are doing quite well. Try to increase the risk and use MM at least for a fixed percentage of the deposit. And it would be nice to use historical data. I have a suspicion that this year the market is specific. There is no guarantee that this non-specificity will remain by the start of the Championship.
Guys, you're welcome to join the company. I have recently come across the subject of MQL4. I've decided that the mastering of the language will take about half a year. Please advise how to start in order not to lose precious time. Many thanks in advance.
Your advice is very valuable in any case.
The direction of the search is set. -))
I dare to take part in the contest.
There's nothing to lose, and the experience is sure to be useful.
Guys, you're welcome to join the company. I have recently come across the subject of MQL4. I've decided that the mastering of the language will take about half a year. Please advise how to start in order not to lose precious time. Many thanks in advance.
IHMO - by looking at the price chart
It's been a long time since I've enjoyed an argument like this.
I ask for advice, can I at least enter the contest with this. Or still looking for? Then in what direction to go, what are the mistakes? Thanks in advance.