A high-tech SME scam. Trader = victim? - page 7
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About volatility at the beginning of the session and at the end, I agree. But we are talking about oddities in price behaviour, which are difficult to explain by any human action, because they are instantaneous, chaotic and unpredictable. It's hard to explain price movement if it's not at the pace at which the MFA reports come out, not at the pace at which business people hedge their businesses, etc... People don't work at that pace and don't do that many contradictory actions in one day, let alone minutes.
The strangeness is understandable, the system is working and it's either taking up the volumes that weren't completed during the week or getting rid of them. Hence the acceleration towards the end to adjust the balance.
It's possible.
No hard feelings. My head is indeed in disarray and my conclusions are tentative, with the caveat that I have no proof of my suspicions. I said that at the beginning and I was waiting for people in the know to set the record straight. My categorical attitude comes from the fact that no one has reasonably objected to me yet).
Have you ever traded through an IB broker?
I have traded. The TWS platform itself notifies that after the futures expiry date all the positions on it will be closed. The broker does not support any deliveries. I don't know how to make a futures contract so that you can get the goods. But it seems to be done on another exchange called CBOT, and the electronic version on which speculators trade is called E-CBOT or GLOBEX.
I have traded on others, but the gist is the same everywhere. Of course, they always ask you to close position beforehand (only with corn not before expiration, but before first notice day), so as not to get on delivery. And it is unlikely that you will actually get on delivery, because as far as I understand, you must be registered as a commercial trader for that (although I could be wrong). If you, once on delivery, refuse it, then you have to pay a penalty.
The trading on CBOT happens in the pit, while on E-CBOT it happens in the electronic exchange system. But the contracts are deliverable in both cases. Only CBOT is gradually dying out as a relic, so the volumes are comparatively low.
About volatility at the beginning of the session and at the end, I agree. But we are talking about strange price behaviour, which is difficult to explain by any human action, because it is instantaneous, chaotic and unpredictable. It's hard to explain price movements if they don't happen at the pace at which MFA reports come out, the pace at which business people hedge their businesses, etc... People don't work at that pace and don't do that many contradictory actions in one day, let alone minutes.
It is clear that there is an active speculative game going on. But there aren't many players... This can also be seen by the fact that volatility is weak. And meanwhile everything is boiling in the cup. There are deals with the volume of hundreds of contracts. The price is barely moving. Then suddenly, bang! A jump of 100 points.
You clearly have a gap in your matrix regarding the market in general. The more liquid the market (more players), the less volatile it is. And vice versa. And you base your thinking on an erroneous postulate.
That futures are always deliverable is big news to me.
How is your point of view supported? Can I have a link?
His only mistake is to think that he cannot calculate volumes, or that he cannot calculate them. And volumes are easy to calculate. It's harder to calculate where those volumes will shoot out.
Perhaps.
I have traded with others, but the gist is the same everywhere. Naturally, they ask you to close your position earlier (only with corn not before expiration, but before first notice day) to avoid being put on delivery. And it is unlikely that you will actually be put on delivery, because as far as I understand, you must be registered as a commercial trader for that (although I could be wrong). If you, once on delivery, refuse it, then you have to pay a fine.
Trading on CBOT is done live - in the "pit", on E-CBOT - on the electronic exchange system. But the contracts are deliverable on both. Only CBOT is gradually dying out as a relic, so the volumes there are relatively small.
The more liquid the market is (more players), the less volatile it is. And vice versa. And you are speculating on the basis of an erroneous assumption.
As for the penalty - IB does not have it. Forced closing of positions, nothing more.
You can trade on SWOT electronically as well. I tried to open and close positions on the same corn.
I even asked if it is possible to open a position on E-SWOT and close it on SWOT because SWOT lags behind E-SWOT. They said it was impossible.
As for the trading pit, there are only two goods traded there - sugar and coffee. It's already an archaism... The pit was left because a lot of old traders were not psychologically adapted to this new type of trading. They resented for a long time and were nostalgic for their old jobs. So they were left with a hole.
About the postulate that the more liquid the market is, the less volatile it is, it obviously contradicts all logic.
Oil is one of the most liquid markets, but trading in it is very dangerous precisely because of the tremendous volatility.
How is that easy to calculate? Explain?
On the penalty side, IB does not have that. Forced closing of a position, nothing more.
I have also had cases where I forgot to close a position despite warnings, and then I was in agony all night long, thinking that I was a fool! Now they will fine me a couple of kopecks...But then it turned out that they had closed the position themselves the day before. And once, I even really got caught up in a delivery, but they somehow managed to resolve it. But it's better not to play with fire, technically they do not have to babysit you.
You can also trade on SWOT electronically. Tried opening and closing positions on the same corn.
This is something new. Are you confused?
As for the trading pit - there are only two commodities traded there - sugar and coffee. That's an archaism... The pit was left because a lot of old traders could not psychologically adapt to the new type of trading. They resented for a long time and were nostalgic for their old jobs. So they were left with a hole.
Do you have proof of that?
The postulate that the more liquid the market is, the more volatile it is, seems to me to contradict any logic.
Of course it does, that's what I'm telling you. But for some reason you've based your postings on that very belief.
Oil is one of the most liquid markets, but it is very dangerous to trade because of the tremendous volatility.