Decision-making error - page 5
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In my opinion, sufficient proof that there is a correlation, and a very strong one at that.
Everyone writes that the S/L and T/P ratios make a huge difference. And everyone always knows their loss up front. Then I'm confused at all if you
I'm confused by the fact that if you enter the market with confidence (by your TS) then why do you need S / L if you know that after a loss you will go to T / P, but the deal has already closed in a loss by S / L?
I haven't seen any proof yet. The range is 0.8 - 1.5, if you take another timeframe the range will be different - so what next? Where is the proof? The proof that the price moves?
Yes, actually, the range has nothing to do with it. I'm just taking possible price values. You're talking about "a different time frame". What "other"? You have the price "not related to previous and subsequent values" !!! Therefore, the time interval has nothing to do with it.
The proof is precisely that my predictions will almost always be orders of magnitude closer to reality than yours.
Everyone writes that the S/L and T/P ratios make a huge difference. And everyone always knows their loss up front. Then I'm confused at all if you
I don't understand why you enter the market with confidence (you`ve been doing it this way for years, why do you need S / L if you know that after a loss you will go to T / P, but the deal has already closed with a loss on S / L?
I mean, how is it "why" ??? Do you understand what it means that the TS works ??? It does not mean that it does not knock out SLs ! Moreover, there are TSs that take TPs ten times less often than SLs. That is, they have all SLs ! The queue of SLs may drag on 20-30 pieces in a row! However, these systems nevertheless work. Because one TP compensates 15 "losses" at once!
If a deal is closed in a SL loss - then it does not matter where it will go next. At this point - it should have been a loss. That's all.
The system cannot be evaluated by a single event, because this event is largely random, and only a large number of them have a tendency to profit or loss. "Know loss beforehand" - it is said about ONE trade. In addition, the same applies to the moment when the system stops working - the control drawdown or SL queue. It does not apply to other moments in the trade.
What do you mean "why"? Do you understand what TC works? It does not mean that it does not knock out SLs ! Moreover, there are TCs that take TPs ten times less often than SLs. That is, they have all SLs ! The queue of SLs may drag on 20-30 pieces in a row! However, these systems nevertheless work. Because one TP compensates 15 "losses" at once!
If a deal is closed in a SL loss - then it does not matter where it will go next. At this point - it should have been a loss. That's all.
The system cannot be evaluated by a single event, because this event is largely random, and only a large number of them have a tendency to profit or loss. "Know loss beforehand" - it is said about ONE trade. In addition, the same applies to the moment when the system stops working - the control drawdown or SL queue. It does not apply to other moments in the trade.
The week ends according to the forecast and the week is at a loss and all on loss and what to do?
Yes, actually, the range has nothing to do with it. I'm just taking possible price values. You're talking about "a different time frame". What "other"? You have the price "not related to previous and subsequent values" !!! So the time frame has nothing to do with it.
The proof is exactly that my predictions will almost always be orders of magnitude closer to reality than yours.
Everyone writes that the S/L and T/P ratios make a huge difference. And everyone always knows their loss up front. Then I'm confused at all if you
I'm confused if you enter the market with confidence (you know what to do with S/L), if you know that after the loss you will go to T/P, but the deal has already closed with a loss on S/L?
Do you even know that one order means ten times the difference, 2 means 100 and 3 orders of magnitude means 1000. Tell me exactly how many thousands of times your guessing ball is more accurate.
That's exactly what I mean - the order is a tenfold difference. Let's estimate how much more accurate my prediction will be.
Assuming the Eurodollar has a normal daily range of 100 pips, the average error of my "forecast" based on the MA would be 50 pips. Your "random" forecast is a forecast in the 7K pips range. The average error is 3.5K pips - roughly speaking, an order and a half. But that is on the daily chart. And if we take the minutes (let's not talk about ticks), which the local super traders terribly like to trade on, we obtain an error of about the same three orders of magnitude.
The price movement is not strictly determined, of course. However, it is not random at all. Several times I've conducted an experiment - we take any MQL-examples EA, generate a random sequence of bars, find approximately the same sequence of bars on the history and optimize the EA so that it shows a good profit on the history. And we run the same Expert Advisor on similar random bars - and at best, the profit disappears. Usually losses are incurred.
In my opinion, this is sufficient proof that the price movement is not random.
But if you think I'm wrong... well... Maybe I am.
Don't take any of this nonsense seriously. Most traders make up levels out of nothing in their heads, call them stop-loss and take-profit, and then promote them as some kind of risk control.