Do we need to follow the trend? - page 2

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223231:
The current movement can be abruptly reversed.
That's what I'm talking about. And they're the opposite!!!! )) I cannot judge how successful or unsuccessful they are because I am not personally acquainted with them and have not seen their trading history.
 
Trend is not a trend, but following other people's advice about trading (unless you're sure you're making $100K a week) is definitely not a good idea.)
 
mmmoguschiy:
that's what I'm saying. And they're the opposite!!!! )) I can't judge how successful or not they are, because I'm not personally acquainted with them and I have not seen their trading history.
I stick to the postulate: "Whatever can happen, will happen. If a trend can turn around, it will definitely do so fast, that it becomes scary. There is a probability of an event occurring with given characteristics.
 
223231:
Trend is not a trend, but following other people's advice about trading (unless you are sure that the person is making $100K a week) is definitely not a good idea.)
I'm sure I have some convictions from experience. I think I may call myself an asshole only when I earn my first million in hard currency (out of 100 quid :-D).

You may listen to all. the main thing is to run a filter afterwards ))
 
mmmoguschiy:
We were having a conversation about following a trend. The opponents were spitting that a trend cannot just change, that it should be followed and if it goes against you it is only a drawdown, that it will pass soon and we should fill it up using Limits or Marquets as it is growing.

To continue the discussion and to move the topic into a separate thread, I will give an example of gold:



So, let us move back to the year 2011. Up to September 2011 we had a steady upward trend. So, as stated by the opponents, we should have entered by buying at the point represented by the arrow. Suppose we did and "went in position" on the gold ... I think there is no sense to go on :-D
This is an unfortunate example, because the situation was not buying gold at that time. Despite the fact that the price continued to break records. I remember that time. It was more about selling. Or out of the market.
 

That's funny, gentlemen.

you should also discuss whether or not to put stop-losses

or whether you should lock your flat

 

The answer to your question is simple, obvious and does not require such extensive discussion: it all depends on the trading strategies used, for trend trading strategies following the trend will be the main component, for counter-trend trading strategies the trend is also important, but will be used to enter transactions against it, for reverse TS direction does not matter!!!!

Of course the methods for determining the trend is too subjective, but trend detection skills are very important for understanding the markets !!!

 
the easiest trend detection for me is from the classic CCI 80 and MA Smoothed 48 on the 4 hour chart
 
Globtroter:
This is an unfortunate example, as the current environment did not suggest buying gold at that time. Even though the price continued to break records. I remember that time. It was more a case of selling. Or out of the market.
That's a baseless assertion! The easiest thing to do is to criticise.) It's even easier to talk about it now - we know what would have happened after the entry. But at that time no one knew what would happen next! We could only speculate. And judging from the statement of the trend followers, we should have entered the market, because it was going upwards and judging by the chart there were no preconditions for its reversal or an explicit sideways trend - it's the part about being out of the market. But you won't make any profit being out of the market!
But you still haven't decided if you are a trend-follower, a counter-trends catcher or a bush sitter. I asked you a question - maybe 2010 was a bad conjuncture and you should have sold? Or maybe it was 2009? Do you remember that time? You obviously can't grasp the essence of my words - you can never say for sure if the trend will continue or reverse. So what - sit in the bushes?

And what are you saying now? You have to sit in the bushes again. (Although there is still a tendency to fall. Nobody has cancelled it, as you say!) How long can you sit there? :-D Did you come to earn money or sit in the bushes? :-D
 
transcendreamer:

That's funny, gentlemen.

you should also discuss whether or not to put stop-losses

or whether you should lock your flat

What about the chicken and the egg?
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