The work of robots on the real. Why people are disappointed - page 8
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In forex, quotes are INDICATIVE, i.e. the price is not formed from the bids in the book, but by the market maker (liquidity provider). This means that the market maker executes your order. Market makers sometimes refuse to execute their own orders at the prices they offer. The client, whose order has been received by market maker, in this case receives either reject (rejected execution) or a new price (slippage). This is the right of market makers in the forex market. That is why volumes and prices in the stack are not as important on the forex market as they are on the stock market.
The main difference between the Forex and the stock exchange is the execution of orders:
- On the exchange, execution is based on the order book and the client, whose order from the stack is being executed, CANNOT change the conditions (volume/price) of execution;
- In forex, your order is executed by a market maker and can change the execution conditions.
That's the gist of the current topic. No bot can predict the market maker's wish. The bot can only limit slippage and refuse a trade with an extended spread that exceeds the limit.
By the way, plaVe - the spread is the crux of the problem. Even VTB24, the only broker in RF registered in RF, licensed in RF and working on absolutely legal grounds (it can be sued in RF territory), says that floating spreads are the norm. It also has a fixed commission on MICEX, which does not change its values on strong price movements.
It is impossible to make the floating spread fixed by a law in the DG. The market is international.
Here's the gist of the current topic. No bot can predict the market maker's wish...
And the market maker is an unpredictable monkey or what? :)
Even if it is a monkey, the behaviour is at least different from random. And so it is possible to understand (make a forecast) in the market, and it does not matter if the movement of quotes is dictated by whom: the market maker, the crowd of losing traders, or, fuck, providence...
Well, the complexity of the market model, which makes the prediction, is another matter.
Is the market maker a monkey unpredictable or what? :)
Even if he is a monkey, the behaviour is at least different from random. So it is possible to understand (make a forecast) in the market, and it doesn't matter if the market maker, or the crowd of losing traders, or fucking providence...
Well, the complexity of the market model, which makes the prediction, is another question.
1. Absolutely random behaviour. Predictions do NOT come true most of the time.
2. Building a model on a forecast is a profitable thing only for the model builder.
3. You should not predict the behaviour of the market, but react to it. But this is another topic.
1. Blue contradicts green. If it does not, then the forecasts should come true 50% of the time.
2. Not only that.
3. Blue is identical to green. Unless, of course, a distinction is made between analysts and traders.
Predictable!!!
And the formula for this prediction is known - the crowd must lose! But the timing of that loss is NOT known.
The essence of the forex market is a game against the INSIDER!!! The one who is on the side of the market maker at the right time wins.
in other words, the market maker is responsible for the trends?
Don't make me laugh.
The institutionalist does not care about the crowd (analysts and traders). His task is NOT to buy cheap or sell expensively. The unpredictability of his behaviour lies in the fact that no one knows if he is going to buy or sell. And don't let the crowd exaggerate its importance that the market maker is leading it around by the nose. It's already mania - see a doctor. The market has an objective evil for the crowd that is floating spreads and technically camouflaged tricks of brokerage companies.
It is useless to fight the widening spread. The only way is to set the deviation limit from the price. Above the indentation limit give up the transaction and wait for the next signal with an adequate spread.
The broker's tricks cannot be cured. You can only change it to the only one registered in Russia (min. lot=1, daily rollovers, which is also not good for many robots). And use virtual orders on the market with slippage regulation.
Example: a sharp movement of EURUSD upwards (against the trend) due to Poroshenko's news about a ceasefire not only averaged the short, but also triggered take profit with a loss (demos at different brokers: screenshot 4, 4-1). If slippage was limited this would not happen. And in the tester in this situation everything OK - profit (screenshot 4-2). Attached.
The institutionalist does not care about the crowd (analysts and traders). His job is to REALLY buy cheap or sell expensively. The unpredictability of his behaviour lies in the fact that no one knows if he is going to buy or sell. And don't let the crowd exaggerate its importance that the market maker is leading it around by the nose. It's already mania - see a doctor. The market has an objective evil for the crowd that is floating spreads and technically camouflaged tricks of brokerage companies.
It is useless to fight the widening spread. You can only set the deviation limit from the price. Above the indentation limit give up the transaction and wait for the next signal with an adequate spread.
The broker's tricks cannot be cured. You can only change it to the only one registered in Russia (min. lot=1, daily rollovers, which is also not good for many robots). And use virtual orders on the market with slippage regulation.
Example: a sharp movement of EURUSD upwards (against the trend) due to Poroshenko's news about a ceasefire not only averaged the short, but also triggered take profit with a loss (demos at different brokers: screenshot 4, 4-1). If slippage was limited this would not happen. And in the tester in this situation everything OK - profit (screenshot 4-2). Attached.