Market patterns - page 11
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You cannot tell the difference at all by eye. If you give me 1,000,000 data, say in csv format, then you can run a test and say with certainty whether we are dealing with the SB or the real market.
Unfortunately, I don't have it, for lack of need. The picture (stories) is taken here
You're making a big deal out of it. The targets have been clearly announced:
... allowed to have only near-market income.... I'm both in my current profession and an illusion salesman... just pushing pictures.
.... you can only earn change by selling attractive on test(past data) automatic systems, through websites, but it's 3(ue) digits per month at most...
And believe me, it is in his case, and will be, if he did decide to get into the market, although if he qualified schedule, then doing for example spetsyfektov to movies can even without risk to have 50-150k $ a year. This is several times more than the income of the average merchant. so I don't see the point in his case at all.
Look from 1.21.00 and 1.34.00 it will be easier to understand what to aim for
http://www.lektorium.tv/lecture/?id=14232 (don't know how to insert video from there)
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A bit of an afterthought;)
...
It's not the first time I turn to Forex, the first time was 4 years ago, but I can not devote all the available time, so I'm still a beginner, I have not found a way to at least a stable 2-5 koe a month.
...
The so-called patterns on FI do not live long. So there is no harm in dreaming about stability. Trading is probability trading, i.e. it is a risky business, not a steady paycheck + advance.
Markets change as patterns are the results of a large proportion of traders applying some set of TS that move the price depending on the TA. Once other traders manage to calculate the market movements depending on these very TS in the form of regularities, those who discovered the regularities begin to earn, and those who create the regularities begin to lose. It is natural that those who created the patterns with their TS change their strategies or leave the markets when they notice losses. Regularities in the markets due to this are always changing - non-stationarity.
To make it clearer, we should take an EA which creates successful forward tests with positive MO of several spreads (for example, here it is free), take some portion of history and leave a controlling piece of historical data after the portion with forward test. Optimize the Expert Advisor with enabled forward, get a certain amount of successful forward tests. Re-check the results on a test piece of history and we see that some of the passes starting to fail after a certain period of time following a successful forward, i.e. market has changed and previously identified patterns do not work anymore.
Since we do not know in advance when the identified patterns will stop working, stability in trading is impossible.
But that's not the point. The matter of fact is that if a pattern gives profitable ÌÎ in the amount of several spreads and when the pattern stops working, we obtain the loss in the amount of minus spread, we obtain positive ÌÎ in general.
It is possible to calculate that the pattern is no longer working on a particular symbol, though with some delay. To do this, select the symbol in the terminal, select the results, for example, for the last week only, and look at the profit. If it is negative, it means that for this symbol it is time to look for other regularities, i.e. to re-optimize the Expert Advisor.
If one trades using several symbols simultaneously (one should choose symbols with fat forward results), systematically check expiration of patterns and timely perform re-optimization with a forward turned on, then the result is unstable and with drawdowns, but positive in general.
If we reason theoretically, then the absence of constant patterns in FI is kind of a SB (Bernoulli scheme, not random walk, because random walk is possible in all directions, and Bernoulli's scheme to the right up and right down or to the right without price changes). But on the other hand, detected patterns can give profits with MO in the amount of several spreads for some more time, though indefinitely, after their detection - this is already a market inefficiency. This inefficiency should be exploited.
Now I see that I can't get the answers to my questions in the way I presented them. I thank everyone for participation, but most likely I won't be able to generalize a general method of searching for methods. Well, I can't take apart concrete strategies one by one, or rely on optimization magic - it's unscientific. It is fascinating at first. But then I get a strong feeling of marking time, at least for me.
I just want to understand if such a methodology exists, albeit classified, or all, even the largest hedge fund managers of the world, are occupied with such a mosaic of topics. Maybe I have not yet reached a quantum level, so that I could go backwards and simulate processes synthetically. And then look for their standards in the real series. Apparently, this is the secret.
Look at 1.21.00 and 1.34.00 it will be easier to understand what to look for
http://www.lektorium.tv/lecture/?id=14232 (don't know how to insert video from there)
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A bit of an afterthought;)
This is an offtop from 2008. A lot has changed since then.
Thanks for the links to the lectures!
Now I see that I can't get the answers to my questions in the way I presented them. I thank everyone for participation, but most likely I won't be able to generalize a general method of searching for methods. But specific strategies to take apart one by one, or rely on the magic of optimization - it's unscientific. It is fascinating at first. But then I get a strong feeling of marking time, at least for me.
I just want to understand if such a methodology exists, albeit classified, or all, even the largest hedge fund managers of the world, are occupied with such a mosaic of topics. Probably I have not yet reached a quantum level to be able to go backwards and simulate processes synthetically. And then to look for their standards in real series. Apparently, this is the secret.
This is an off-topic from 2008. A lot has changed since then.
Thanks for the links to the lectures!
I just want to understand if there is such a methodology, even classified, or all, even the managers of the largest hedge funds in the world, are affected by such a mosaic.
See the sad story of the LTCM Foundation
Quote:
"Models developed in financial economics are very useful but, like models in other sciences, have their limitations. For example, any trader mechanically applying a formula to price options would quickly lose their money. Practitioners and academics have developed many refinements to the Black-Scholes formula. However, these refinements only work well for a certain period of time and can collapse unexpectedly."
That is, miracles do not happen. Trading is a risky business and those who are looking for stable income would better search for stability somewhere else, for example take a job on a local farm as a farm keeper.
Those who want a stable money-making machine in stock trading end up with a lip-rolling machine.
See the sad story of the LTCM Foundation
Quote:
I.e. there are no miracles. Trading is a risky business and those who are looking for a stable income in trading would be better off looking for stability elsewhere, such as taking a job at their home collective farm as a caretaker.
See the sad story of the LTCM Foundation
Quote:
"Models developed in financial economics are very useful but, like models in other sciences, have their limitations. For example, any trader mechanically applying a formula to price options would quickly lose their money. Practitioners and academics have developed many refinements to the Black-Scholes formula. However, these refinements only work well for a certain period of time and can collapse unexpectedly."
That is, miracles do not happen. Trading is a risky business, and those seeking a stable income in trading would be better to seek stability elsewhere, for example, take a job on the home collective farm as a keeper.
Those who want a stable money-making machine in stock trading end up with a lip-rolling machine.
Why do the statements of losers (or inept or lazy) always sound like axioms? ... It is the destiny of wingless toads to sit in a swamp and squawk loudly about the inability to fly in principle, because the loudest one somehow jumped with all his might ... и ... ...and it didn't fly!!! And no, to look up and see what are swallows doing up there high in the sky... flying? - nonsense!!! - flying is basically impossible...
P.S. This is probably because swallows are not shouting so loud - they have other priorities, they need to catch gnats..., lots of gnats...
Now I see that I can't get the answers to my questions in the way I presented them, thank you all for your participation, but it's unlikely that I'll be able to generalise on a general method of searching for methods.