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So the problem is not in pixels, or returns, but in our primitive models that we build for the market, the maximum of these models is to multiply pixel by pixel and look at it in a sliding window of 5-10 pixels) that's the whole fairy tale. That is, the model does not rise above the first level of abstraction, and we may need 1000 such levels....
So don't scold returns or pixels, you need to think more with your head, and of course you need knowledge....
Well, good luck to you in mastering new levels. I sincerely wish that you succeed, although I doubt it very much.
When you turn off the gas on sizzling cutlets, why do they keep sizzling. Because of inertia. )))) and that's the correct answer.
If someone could learn to predict at the opening of each minute whether the price will be higher or lower in 240 minutes (i.e. the colour of a 4-hour candle), with a probability of at least 55/45 - that would be alpha.
This is already available https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/746398
Only at every minute it makes no sense to forecast for 4 hours ahead. Too smeared forecast, it turns out 240 forecasts inside one duration. I.e. it is possible, but it is an inefficient use of the resource.
Forecast for any duration is built from minute candles, but the poll itself is optimal to make every 1/10 of the forecast range, i.e. 4 hours is normal to forecast on 20 minute candles (when closing 20 minute candle to start the poll). Otherwise there will be a lot of similar answers, because when shifting to 1/240 nothing fundamentally changes.
As for the quality of the forecast, it turned out to depend on the trading pair and the duration of the forecast. Crypto and large indices like SNP500 are best predicted, while commodities and everything that strongly depends on news and politics are the worst (indices depend, but more smoothly). Bitcoin now has 68% successful predictions on a 3 hour duration, the best rate there is. This figure is derived from real public forecasts on the real market.
On average, you can get around 60% for many pairs and durations from 7 minutes to 6 hours.
That is, the level of a good indicator has already been reached.
This is already there https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/746398
Only at every minute it makes no sense to forecast 4 hours ahead. Too smeared forecast, it turns out to be 240 forecasts within one duration. I.e. it is possible, but it is an inefficient use of the resource.
Forecast for any duration is built from minute candles, but the survey itself is optimal to make every 1/10 of the forecast range, i.e. 4 hours is normal to forecast on 20 minute candles (when closing 20 minute candle start the survey). Otherwise there will be a lot of similar answers, because nothing changes fundamentally when shifting to 1/240.
As for the quality of the forecast, as it turned out, it depends on the trading pair and the duration of the forecast. Crypto and large indices like SNP500 are the best predicted, while commodities and everything that is highly dependent on news and politics are the worst (indices are dependent, but in a smoother way). Bitcoin now has 68% successful predictions on a 3 hour duration, the best rate there is. This figure is derived from real public forecasts on the real market.
On average, you can get around 60% for many pairs and durations from 7 minutes to 6 hours.
I.e. the level of a good indicator has already been reached.
When you turn off the gas on sizzling cutlets, why do they keep sizzling. Because of inertia. )))) and that is the correct answer.
And why in the signal algotrading is not 100%, how does it even work?
are you talking about the demo? i don't know, maybe i closed something with my hands before, that account is for tests, don't pay attention.
You mean the demo? I don't know, maybe I closed something with my hands before, that account is for tests, don't pay attention.
Yeah, about the demo...
through the trade IDs, there's a marker.