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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.12.05 10:25
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment paired with an uptick in wage growth.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDJPY, M5, 2014.12.05
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
USDJPY M5: 88 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014
newdigital, 2014.12.06 08:31
Trading Video: EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Look to Open Next Week with a Bang (based on dailyfx article)
The FX market has positioned itself for an exciting open next week. Driven by a better-than-expected NFP payroll report, the Dollar Index extended its run to a more than five year high. On market-wide basis, the currency looks unencumbered technically to keep status quo momentum. However, among the crosses, we see a range of important technical levels that could take the wind out of the currency's sails. Some are scalable like GBPUSD and others are critical like EURUSD. Will we be ushered into the next phase of larger currency move or will the year-end seasonal drain throw the breaks on this remarkable financial market performance? We look at the trading landscape for the week ahead in this Trading Video.