USDJPY Technical Analysis 2014, 30.11 - 07.12: Bullish within Triangle - page 2

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.05 10:25

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment paired with an uptick in wage growth.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations

• Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
• If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily

• Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
• Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
OCT 2014	11/07/2014 13:30 GMT	235K	214K	+21	+66

October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDJPY, M5, 2014.12.05

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDJPY M5: 88 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014

newdigital, 2014.12.06 08:31

Trading Video: EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Look to Open Next Week with a Bang (based on dailyfx article)

• A large NFP payrolls beat Friday leveraged the Dollar sharply higher to fresh five-year highs
• Many of the majors head into next week on the verge of critical breaks on long-term technical patterns
• While the data on tap more volatility-prone, special attention should be paid to the RBNZ and SNB

The FX market has positioned itself for an exciting open next week. Driven by a better-than-expected NFP payroll report, the Dollar Index extended its run to a more than five year high. On market-wide basis, the currency looks unencumbered technically to keep status quo momentum. However, among the crosses, we see a range of important technical levels that could take the wind out of the currency's sails. Some are scalable like GBPUSD and others are critical like EURUSD. Will we be ushered into the next phase of larger currency move or will the year-end seasonal drain throw the breaks on this remarkable financial market performance? We look at the trading landscape for the week ahead in this Trading Video.