Working on an intelligence lot size algorithm together... - page 2
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Interesting . How much of the loss is due to spreads and commisions ?
I'll go with the first thing that comes to mind here -although extremely naive- :
If you reverse the system will you end up with a 19% win rate which outweights the losses ?
Hi Lorentzos,
Thank you for your approach. Thenloss is due to touching initial 30 pips stop-loss points. The spreads are low and commisiions are about 0.5 pip.
I can draw a reward-punishment table for the system such as follows;
Lot size=0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05...
Successful trade | -- -- -- -- --
Unsuccess trade | -- -- -- -- --
However, I wonder what the next step should be after determined above tabel.
I don't have any idea about 19% win rate will be If I reserve the system. I don't believe back test. However, I can test that on live.
But, why?
Hi Lorentzos,
Thank you for your approach. Thenloss is due to touching initial 30 pips stop-loss points. The spreads are low and commisiions are about 0.5 pip.
I can draw a reward-punishment table for the system such as follows;
Lot size=0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05...
Successful trade | -- -- -- -- --
Unsuccess trade | -- -- -- -- --
However, I wonder what the next step should be after determined above tabel.
I don't have any idea about 19% win rate will be If I reserve the system. I don't believe back test. However, I can test that on live.
But, why?
I think you should not reward big or small lot yet ,rather keep the lot static and reward big wins .The reward mechanism can be the pips, thats good .
Bad thing is you must make the system recognize patterns for distinguishing bad trades / good trades beforehand .
Imagine 5 doors , each door is a lot size ,now you must make the keys
Hi Icham Aidibe,
I hope you are well. It was very intelligence approach to use random entries becuase you could focuse your mpney management model etc. firstly.
I have B.Sc. in Statistics and M.Sc. in Quantitative Methods degrees. I have several scientific papers including robust and fuzzy statistical modelling. I have also conference presentations around the world.
I think that I can improve your model and determine why you had bad results after 4 months, if you want.
The Signals and its logic is very important. However, the money management is more important than them, I think to be in a profit at the end of a month.
I used to some techniques for my EA's logic such as deep and reinceforcement learning, q learning etc. These appraches very inteligence approaches. For examğle, A kind of Neural Network called CNN can
be applied on the money management model.
I am willing to work with you. If we can have a success, the money management model can be applied on many systems including different winning rates and Reward/Risk Ratios.
Algorithm, from the persian name Al-Khwârizmî or logical sequence or logical song for which musical notes could only be exclusively basics :
... all of that executed the right way, in the right proportion, at the right moment, for the right condition - the main constraint being : margin.
That's what missing to the EA. All I tried for now fails in a way or the other : when I give priority to profit, I take unconsiderable risks I finally pay & when I give priority to safety, it's not longer profitable enough to blow up your mind for.
So ... if you could determine "the golden sequence", it's your's !
As a reminder, this is the surefire system as described by his creator John C. :
But it's a fairy tale which turns into a nightmare as soon as you realize .... the margin constraint.
Good luck :)
Hi Lorentzos,
Thank you for your approach. Thenloss is due to touching initial 30 pips stop-loss points. The spreads are low and commisiions are about 0.5 pip.
I can draw a reward-punishment table for the system such as follows;
Lot size=0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05...
Successful trade | -- -- -- -- --
Unsuccess trade | -- -- -- -- --
However, I wonder what the next step should be after determined above tabel.
I don't have any idea about 19% win rate will be If I reserve the system. I don't believe back test. However, I can test that on live.
But, why?
Hi. I have been working on a similar project for two months now. I know of a guaranteed method to make your expert profitable.
Create a project on MetaEditor and add me or ask me to join.
I'll be expecting your response.
Hi. I have been working on a similar project for two months now. I know of a guaranteed method to make your expert profitable.
Create a project on MetaEditor and add me or ask me to join.
I'll be expecting your response.
Hi Nelson,
I hope you are well. I think you can share your method via here.
Algorithm, from the persian name Al-Khwârizmî or logical sequence or logical song for which musical notes could only be exclusively basics :
... all of that executed the right way, in the right proportion, at the right moment, for the right condition - the main constraint being : margin.
That's what missing to the EA. All I tried for now fails in a way or the other : when I give priority to profit, I take unconsiderable risks I finally pay & when I give priority to safety, it's not longer profitable enough to blow up your mind for.
So ... if you could determine "the golden sequence", it's your's !
As a reminder, this is the surefire system as described by his creator John C. :
But it's a fairy tale which turns into a nightmare as soon as you realize .... the margin constraint.
Good luck :)
Hi Icham,
I hope you are well. Can you give a little bit more detail about the graph and your strategy, please?
Best,
Murat Y.
Algorithm, from the persian name Al-Khwârizmî or logical sequence or logical song for which musical notes could only be exclusively basics :
... all of that executed the right way, in the right proportion, at the right moment, for the right condition - the main constraint being : margin.
That's what missing to the EA. All I tried for now fails in a way or the other : when I give priority to profit, I take unconsiderable risks I finally pay & when I give priority to safety, it's not longer profitable enough to blow up your mind for.
So ... if you could determine "the golden sequence", it's your's !
As a reminder, this is the surefire system as described by his creator John C. :
But it's a fairy tale which turns into a nightmare as soon as you realize .... the margin constraint.
Good luck :)
As I can see , everybody is looking for Graal.
I have been looking for it too, but just some considerations make me thinkning still nowadays.
Why size is 0.1 and not 0.2 or 0.01? Why TP is x and not y? Same for SL.
More time you stay in the market, more time it can be unpredictable.
What about the noise? Often it is a disgrace, or maybe it could be the right approach.
Do you agree more you risk, more could be your income (or loss)? How much should be trailing stop? Even if I am going to reach TP, how long will it take?
How can I choose the right pairs to operate on? Which indicators could be useful?
As I can see , everybody is looking for Graal.
I have been looking for it too, but just some considerations make me thinkning still nowadays.
Why size is 0.1 and not 0.2 or 0.01? Why TP is x and not y? Same for SL.
More time you stay in the market, more time it can be unpredictable.
What about the noise? Often it is a disgrace, or maybe it could be the right approach.
Do you agree more you risk, more could be your income (or loss)? How much should be trailing stop? Even if I am going to reach TP, how long will it take?
How can I choose the right pairs to operate on? Which indicators could be useful?
Hi Marco,
I hope you are well. I think that traders set up his/her own strategy firstly. It will be very useful if your signal strategy is different your lotsize strategy.
The Lot size strategy is about the money and the risk management. However, the signal strategy is about technical and/or fundamental analyses.
If we can develop a good model for both a signal strategy and lotsize strategy. Altgouh, our signal model's winning rate is not high, we can be in a profit
at the end of the week by using a good lotsize strategy.
Many traders try to achive the best signal strategy. Yes, I agree with them. That is necessary. However, we can be in the profit at the end of the week with a good lotsize strategy eventhough we has lowernwinning signal stragey than the best, I think.
I have opened this topic to focus on getting a good lotsize strategy. We assume that we have a enough signal strategy as 80% winning rate. If we have 80% winning rate, what should be lotsize function to be in the profit at the end of the week. I think that we should determine inputs of the lotsize function, firstly.
Hi Marco,
I hope you are well. I think that traders set up his/her own strategy firstly. It will be very useful if your signal strategy is different your lotsize strategy.
The Lot size strategy is about the money and the risk management. However, the signal strategy is about technical and/or fundamental analyses.
If we can develop a good model for both a signal strategy and lotsize strategy. Altgouh, our signal model's winning rate is not high, we can be in a profit
at the end of the week by using a good lotsize strategy.
Many traders try to achive the best signal strategy. Yes, I agree with them. That is necessary. However, we can be in the profit at the end of the week with a good lotsize strategy eventhough we has lowernwinning signal stragey than the best, I think.
I have opened this topic to focus on getting a good lotsize strategy. We assume that we have a enough signal strategy as 80% winning rate. If we have 80% winning rate, what should be lotsize function to be in the profit at the end of the week. I think that we should determine inputs of the lotsize function, firstly.
Sorry, but there is something I do not agree.
All is related among variables. Which is the sense to have 80% winning rate if when 20% losing occurs, will be bigger than previous earnings?
Sorry, but there is something I do not agree.
All is related among variables. Which is the sense to have 80% winning rate if when 20% losing occurs, will be bigger than previous earnings?
We assume that we are working with 1:6 Reward, Risk ratio.If we use stable and same lot size on all orders, 20% losing will be bigger than 80% winning.
However, if we use an intelligence lot size function instead of stable and same lot size, 20% losing can be lower than 80% winning. So, we can be in the profit.