AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 29.06 - 06.07: Bullish Ranging - page 2
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newdigital, 2014.07.03 07:44
2014-07-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Speech]
[AUD - RBA Gov Speech] = Due to speak at the Australian Conference of Economists and the Econometric Society of Australasian Meeting, in Hobart. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
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RBA Stevens: Repeats AUD high by historical standards
Comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Stevens, to the Australian Conference of Economists (ACE) and the Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM), Hobart:
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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.03
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 54 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Gov Speech news event
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newdigital, 2014.07.03 13:55
Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for NFPs
Traders lulled into a daze by the low volatility ought to grab a coffee for this morning - volatility should be back with a vengeance. Thanks to the holiday-shortened week for the July 4 US Independence Day, market participants have been gifted with the European Central Bank rate decision and the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report coming within less than an hour of one another.
Of the two, the ECB rate decision will be the less exciting, given the likelihood that the ECB sits pat after unveiling a plethora of measures last month; simply not enough time has passed for policymakers to determine if said measures have proven effective. ECB President Draghi's press conference, in lieu of substantive action, will carry additional weight.
With the June US ADP Employment report showing jobs growth north of +280K (which only tallies private payrolls, not government jobs), there is a distinct possibility that the June US NFP figure comes in above +250K. Considering that the Federal Reserve's tone has started to diverge from incoming economic data (the Fed is behind the curve, as they say), a strong June jobs report could be the spark the buck needs to move off of its lowest levels since October.
See the video above for details on trade setups in EURUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD, and USDJPYForum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
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newdigital, 2014.07.03 12:16
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 215K in June, but the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may spark a mixed reaction in the EUR/USD as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations of seeing the longest stretch of 200K+ prints since 1999-2000, it seems as though we would need a more meaningful pickup in job growth for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to soften its dovish tune for monetary policy, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback may continue to take shape going into the Fed’s July 30 as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the highly accommodative policy stance.
The pickup in private sector hiring along with the ongoing improvement in business confidence raises the scope for a better-than-expected NFP print, and a strong employment read may mitigate the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to move away from its easing cycle.
However, the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with the persistent slack in the real economy may continue to drag on job growth, and a weak NFP figure may trigger selloff in the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) beyond 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 215K+; Unemployment Holds Steady
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Report Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Preserve Ascending Channel for Now While RSI Retains Long-Term Bearish Trend
- Interim Resistance: 1.3770 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3790 (38.2% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3500 Pivot
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
May 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. economy added another 217K jobs in May following a revised 282K expansion the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly held steady at an annualized 6.3% amid forecasts for a 6.4% print. Despite the downtick in unemployment, the EUR/USD climbed back above the 1.3650 region following the release, but the market reaction was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 1.3640.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.03
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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newdigital, 2014.07.04 08:09
AUD/USD Forecast July 4, 2014, Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair fell during the session on Thursday, dropping to the 0.9350 level. That being the case, the market certainly looks like it could fall from here, but there is a significant amount of support down at the 0.93 level, meaning that possibly the market continues lower but only after a significant breakdown. On the other hand, if we get a supportive candle here, we could start buying as well as the market could head back towards the 0.95 handle. The market breaking above the 0.95 handle would in fact be very bullish, and would be more of a buy-and-hold type of situation. However, the last two sessions have been rather brutal against the Australian dollar, so it’s hard to imagine that there isn’t something going on here.
Breaking down from here would send this market down to the 0.92 handle, an area that is massively supportive. Because of that, we do think that there are a couple of possible trades coming up, and we are somewhat ambivalent about which direction the market goes, and will simply wait until we get some type of move in one direction or the other in order to be involved. We believe that either direction will work, but it’s very likely that we could stay between the 0.92 level on the bottom, and the 0.95 level on the top for the time being, and possibly even as long as the summer as the Forex markets could get fairly quiet.
Ultimately, we will have to pay attention to the gold markets as well, as the correlation is well-known between the two markets. On top of that, we have to pay attention to the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve will be able to taper off of quantitative easing going forward, which of course should boost the value of the US dollar. On top of that, it really puts a beating on the value of the Australian dollar, as it is considered to be a “risky” asset. The markets are at a bit of an inflection point right now, so we will certainly be watching.
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newdigital, 2014.07.04 17:41
Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD (based on fxstreet article)
AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
Australian Dollar completed its descending wave and broke level of 0.9417. We think, today price may return to level of 0.9417. After reaching it, we’ll see whether price is going to continue falling down or growing up. If falling down – it may reach level of 0.9270; if growing up – reach new high. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue moving inside descending trend.
