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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting to Read April 2014
newdigital, 2014.04.14 20:48
Theory Of Stochastic Processes : With Applications to Financial Mathematics and Risk Theory
This book is a collection of exercises covering all the main topics in the modern theory of stochastic processes and its applications, including finance, actuarial mathematics, queuing theory, and risk theory.
The aim of this book is to provide the reader with the theoretical and practical material necessary for deeper understanding of the main topics in the theory of stochastic processes and its related fields.
The book is divided into chapters according to the various topics. Each chapter contains problems, hints, solutions, as well as a self-contained theoretical part which gives all the necessary material for solving the problems. References to the literature are also given.
The exercises have various levels of complexity and vary from simple ones, useful for students studying basic notions and technique, to very advanced ones that reveal some important theoretical facts and constructions.
This book is one of the largest collections of problems in the theory of stochastic processes and its applications. The problems in this book can be useful for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as for specialists in the theory of stochastic processes.
Building Reliable Trading Systems : Tradable Strategies That Perform As They Backtest and Meet Your Risk-Reward Goals
A tradable strategy is one that fits your own risk-reward goals and trades as well in real time as it performs in a development backtest. While it's not easy to create a tradable strategy, due to pitfalls ranging from excessive curve-fitting to greed, if done the right way, you can achieve a realistic level of success.
Nobody understands this better than author Keith Fitschen—a thought leader in trading system development whose most popular system, Aberration, has been named "One of the Top Ten Trading Systems of All Time" by Futures Truth. For more than twenty-five years, Fitschen has developed and actively traded his proven systems, and now he shares his extensive experience in this field with you.
Engaging and accessible, Building Reliable Trading Systems opens with a practical look at exactly what is achievable with a trading strategy. This includes documented performance from some of the best money managers in the world over the last five years, metrics that best characterize a trading strategy's performance, and a set of questions to help you define what would constitute a "tradable strategy" according to your personal risk-taking tolerance. It also addresses one of the biggest problems in developing a strategy—curve-fitting—and presents a unique methodology known as "Build, Rebuild, and Compare," or BRAC, that can be used to determine the degree of curve-fitting in your strategy development.
With this information in hand, Fitschen moves on to outline two tradable systems: one a short-term scalping system for stocks, and the other a mid-term trend-following strategy for commodities. Entries, exits, and trading filters are discussed as these systems are developed. By the end of the process, both are "tradable" as is, but in order to tailor them to a range of risk-reward profiles—from large stock and commodity accounts to small—you'll be introduced to some essential money management techniques. Fitschen also develops a money management overlay to trade the stock and commodity strategies together, which can yield a trading solution that is better than either alone.
And for those who want even more detail about the strategies developed in this book, the trades for both systems can be found on www.keithstrading.com. At the website, you can input your user name and password to find the TradeStation Easy Language code and daily signals for them.
Written with the serious trader in mind, Building Reliable Trading Systems contains information that you'll be hard-pressed to find elsewhere—from BRAC to bar-scoring—and will put you in a better position to generate realistic trading returns over time.
by Nicholas Pardini
With central banks around the world devaluing major currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese Yen, and the euro, opportunities for higher returns are available through investing in emerging market currencies. Investing in exotic currencies such as the Chinese renminbi or Brazilian real may seem complicated, but with the help of this book we make it more accessible to investors of all sizes. The Definitive Guide to Emerging Market Currencies covers the macroeconomic underpinnings foreign currency markets, the fundamental factors that define the future strengthening of currencies in emerging markets, and how to trade these currencies. The book also goes into detail on the economic fundamentals of every significantly liquid emerging market currency along with an investing outlook for each one. For those looking to make money trading emerging market FOREX, or are just curious about emerging market currencies, this book is the best place to start. Even stock market investors benefit from learning about these FOREX markets because currency fluctuations have a huge impact on investors' total returns in any foreign country.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.06.26 08:24
This is some advice made by Nicholas Pardini in November last year.
Nicholas Pardini is the founder and managing partner of investment firm Nomadic Capital Partners, which specializes in investing in emerging and frontier markets around the globe. His book, “The Definitive Guide to Emerging Market Currencies,” was written in response to his inability to find research on the subject.
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7 best currencies for long term investors
Want to buy and hold? Here's one expert's view.Foreign exchange markets tend to be the domain for short-term technical and momentum based speculators. However, with central banks around the world holding real interest rates negative and printing large quantities of money, investors’ home currencies in developed nations such as the United States, Europe and Japan may not be a safe store of value.
Stretched valuations across bond and equity markets make this an apt time to take profits, but what currencies should investors hold their cash? Here’s my top seven strongest currencies based on long-term economic fundamentals.
7) Korean won
South Korea has become a manufacturing powerhouse. The quality of Korean goods such as Samsung Electronics, Hyundai and Posco meets and often exceeds Japanese competitors. In spite of a weak yen, South Korea maintains competitive advantage versus Japan. South Korea’s fiscal health is also strong with a 35% debt to GDP, 3.3% GDP growth, and 3.8% current account surplus.
6) Malaysian ringgit
Malaysia is the only developed nation since its independence in 1957 that has not defaulted or experienced a full year of inflation above 20%. The Malaysian central bank has an excellent track record of keeping inflation low and exports of crude oil, palm oil, minerals, and other natural resources keep foreign reserves well stocked. The tricky part for Western investors is that the ringgit can only be traded via non-deliverable forwards due to capital controls left over from the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
5) Norwegian krone
Norway has the most stable currency in Europe. With oil exports, a high standard of living, a 13% current account surplus, and a debt to GDP of just 28%, Norway is in excellent shape to maintain currency strength and hold off the structural problems of the rest of the continent. Because Norway is not part of the EU, it can serve as a financial safe haven for investors if the European debt crisis deteriorates further.
4) Chinese renminbi
China is transitioning from an export based economy to one that relies on more domestic consumption. Part of this transition will be RMB appreciation as higher domestic purchasing power of imported goods such as food and energy will be needed to increase the wealth of middle income Chinese and get them to spend money on local consumer goods and services. China has stockpiles of foreign reserves and trade surpluses which will also hold up the renminbi as the government has been intervening less to keep the currency down. The renminbi would be rated higher if it was not for strict capital controls.
3) Hong Kong dollar
The Hong Kong dollar is like the call option of currencies. It is pegged to a narrow band to the U.S. dollar, so downside risk is limited. However, if trade pressures and a weak dollar break the peg, that the Hong Kong dollar has appreciation potential of greater than 20% to match the recent gains of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar.
2) Singapore dollar
With increased disclosure in Switzerland, Singapore has become the new global center of hidden money and a favored tax haven. As income inequality increases along with the increased rates and enforcement of taxation, foreign capital inflows will continue to increase in Singapore that puts upward pressure on the currency. Singapore also has an 18%.6 current account surplus and has been the greatest beneficiary of the growth of Asian economies and Asian tourism. As seen in the chart, the Singapore dollar has one of the most stable paths of appreciation against the U.S. dollar of any currency.
1) New Zealand dollar
The New Zealand dollar is the safest store of value among the bunch. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the only developed nation central bank that plans on raising interest rates in the near future and the country has reformed its tax code to lower rates and increase transparency. New Zealand also has stable exports from undervalued agriculture assets.
Trading Exchanges Market Microstructure Practitioners : Larry Harris
This book is about trading, the people who trade securities and contracts, the marketplaces where they trade, and the rules that govern it. Readers will learn about investors, brokers, dealers, arbitrageurs, retail traders, day traders, rogue traders, and gamblers; exchanges, boards of trade, dealer networks, ECNs (electronic communications networks), crossing markets, and pink sheets. Also covered in this text are single price auctions, open outcry auctions, and brokered markets limit orders, market orders, and stop orders. Finally, the author covers the areas of program trades, block trades, and short trades, price priority, time precedence, public order precedence, and display precedence, insider trading, scalping, and bluffing, and investing, speculating, and gambling.
Inside The Black Box : Rishi K Narang
Whether you call it quant, algo, or black box trading, it all adds up to the same thing: systematic trading performed by computers.
While some decry it as dangerously detached from human control, and a driver of excessive volatility in the markets, others see quantitative trading as a welcome departure from the unruly passions and cognitive biases that inform human investment decision making.
Say what you will about quant trading, the fact is, overall, quant funds consistently outperform the markets—which may be why so many smart investors are keen to avail themselves of that black box magic.
Unfortunately, much remains obscure about quantitative trading, thanks in great part to the extreme guardedness of quants when it comes to the details of how their systems work. But, as quant-trader and master explainer Rishi Narang deftly shows in this updated edition of his bestselling guide, quantitative trading is much easier to understand and take advantage of than you think.
Designed to make quantitative trading comprehensible to even the most math- or technophobic investor, this book takes you on a guided tour inside the black box. In plain English, Mr. Narang turns the lights up on what the quants are up to, once and for all lifting the veil of mystery surrounding quantitative trading and quantitative trading strategies.
Following a concise introduction to quantitative trading principles and general practices, Mr. Narang cuts to the chase with a detailed inventory of the contents of a typical black box system, explaining, in non-technical terms, what each one is and how it fits together with the others.
Then, with the help of numerous real-world examples and lively anecdotes, he clearly explains:
A book that lifts the lid on black box trading, making it transparent, intuitively sensible, and readily understandable, Inside the Black Box is a must-read for institutional investors, asset managers, investment advisors, pension fund managers, and all savvy investors looking to gain an edge in today's turbulent financial markets.