Allow me to present to the distinguished community Technical analysis and Forex news by NewForex company.
Plenty of indicators are used by traders to analyse the market, however only a small part of them can help to estimate the volatility of market processes. The indicator ?Bollinger bands? is considered as a secure instrument and is used in many graphic analitical programmes.
The indicator ?Bollinger bands? was created in the 20th century by the financial analyst, the president of the company Bollinger Capital Management John Bollinger. Of course this indicator can not foresee the direction of the future price movement but it is able to prompt the moment when a strong price movement is expected.
The indicator consists of only three lines.The line in the middle is a simple moving average, as a rule with the period of 20. The upper and the lower line, they determine 2 bands of the indicator, have an equal distance from the middle one. This distance is proportional to the volume of the mean square price range, this indicator characterizes the market volatility. Consequently, we observe narrow lines during calm periods and when the market is unstable Bollinger bands widen.
There are drastic price changes when the bands meet during small and quite longstanding fluctuations of market prices. During this period the indicator will not prompt the direction of the future movement. Traders can outguess this direction by means of other instruments of technical analysis. If the price goes beyond one of the indicator borders, it might be a signal of the beginning of a new trend or the continuation of the previous trend after the correction.
Fairly often the price forming a high or a low beyond the indicator lines returns inside the Bollinger bands. In this case the first target of the trader should be an average line.In the given picture there are a lot of examples. Thus, market extremums, which usually occur beyond Bollinger bands, indicate the change of market tendencies and the lines of the indicator represent strong levels of support/resistance and price consolidation. Due to this peculiarity of the indicator it can be a base for a really working trading system.
The efficiency of Bollinger bands becomes apparent together with other indicators and if they confirm signals of turnback or clearance, the probability that an open position will be profitable sharply increases. It is worth combining Bollinger bands with indicators of volume ?MACD? or ?Stochastic?.
However, it is worth remembering that work with Bollinger bands requires from the trader sufficient experience and necessary skills acquiring which it will be possible to estimate the placement of forces in the market and take proactive decisions about the trades.
Forex News from New Forex: Aussie falls after lowering of the credit rating
On Thursday, July 7, the Australian dollar loses ground against the US dollar after cutting down the credit rating of Australia. The rating agency Standard and Poor’s fetched down the rating of Australia to AAA, i.e. from stable to negative. The pair AUD/USD shed 0.23% at the start of the trading session, at the moment it is edging down to 0.07% to 0.752.
The New Zealand dollar advances 1.30% against the greenback, market participants realised after the yesterday’s report of Fed that they should not wait for the interest rate hike in the nearest time.
The dollar index slipped to 0.03% to 96.10.
Forex News from New Forex: Pound rises amid positive manufacturing data
The pound sterling gains ground in the trading on Thursday, July 7, after the release of positive economic news. Industrial production dropped in the UK by 0.5% in May. However, it is much better than the forecast at -1.0%. Year on year the industrial production increased by 1.4% in May instead of expected 0.5%. Manufacturing production shed also 0.5% which is more positive than the forecast -1.0%. Year on year manufacturing production surged 1.7% with the forecast only at 0.7%.
The currency instrument pound/dollar trades currently at 1.3025 (+0.74%). Against the euro the pound picked up 0.93% to 0.8503.
Forex News from New Forex: Technical analysis of EUR/USD
In the trading on Thursday the pair remains within the level of support at 1.1065 and resistance 1.1149. A slight bearish sentiment prevails in the market with attempts to breach the current support level but without luck at the moment.
Exponential moving averages with periods 20 and 55 days crossed downwards and decline. The MACD moved into the zone below zero, the Stochastic sends a signal to sell. The euro gained some support after the release of yesterday’s minutes by the Fed, the price climbed to 1.1111. However, the market could not stay at this level and pulled back to 1.1065 at the end of the trading session.
Most market participants are in the anticipation of the results of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting later today. And the market is eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s data from the USA on unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls.
Trading decisions should be based on the above-mentioned macroeconomic data.
Forex News from New Forex: Technical analysis of GBP/USD
Hitting a new 31-year low on Wednesday declining to 1.2795, the currency pair got support after the release of data from the USA and today trades within the support at 1.2747 and resistance at 1.2980. Based on the results on the previous trading session the pair formed a firm bearish candlestick in a day-chart which implies that the market intends to go downwards and there might be some new anti-records.
EMA20 and EMA55 keep declining, the MACD remains below its central line as well as the RSI. Only the oscillator Stochastic sends a signal to buy.
Forex News from New Forex: US unemployment by numbers
Today global markets are in the anticipation of unemployment data from the US. The unemployment rate is calculated according to the number of people actively searching for work. In May 2016 this number dropped to 4.7%, a low since November 2007. The number of unemployed residents decreased by 484,000 to 7.4 mln.
An average unemployment level in the USA over 1948 to 2016 period is 5.82% with a high at 10.80% in November 1982 and a low at 2.50% in May 1953.
In May the unemployment rate among man was 4.3%, women 4.2%, Whites 4.1%, among Hispanics 5.6%, Asians 4.1%, African Americans 8.2%. Unemployment among teenagers stands at 16.0%. Around 1.9 mln US residents can not find work for more than half a year. The State calls this group "long-term unemployed".
If we look carefully at the difference between states, the lowest rate in May 2016 was in South Dakota with 2.5%, the highest in Alaska with 6.7%.
June forecast shows a slight rise to 4.8%, how accurate it is we will find out later today.
During the trading session on Thursday the currency pair rose to 1.1106 and later bounced off to
1.1052 making a firm bearish candlestick in the day chart which shows the market intention to
decline. It is necessary to breach the strong support at 1.1050. In case of success we expect to see
the price at 1.0970. Otherwise, the market has to breach the resistance at 1.1111 which will allow
the pair to climb to 1.1180.
In the trading on Friday the pair remains within the support level at 1.1067 and resistance at
1.1095. EMA20 and EMA55 crossed downwards and keep descending. The MACD-histogram stands in the
negative zone and slowly rises. The oscillator Stochastic sends a signal to sell.
The market consolidated due to the decreased activity of its participants before the release of
macroeconomic data from the US today at 15:00 GTM.
On Thursday the pair edged up to 1.3076 but later bounced off to 1.2878 finishing trades with a
neutral day candlestick which says about the weakness of the currency pair and market consolidation
giving chances both to bulls and bears, according to the current technical structure.
On Friday the price remains within the support at 1.2883 and resistance at 1.3000. However, it is
not so simple here. Today at 15:30 GTM the market expects the release of unemployment data and
nonfarm payrolls for June. Consequently, all market participants shudder to a halt in the
anticipation of macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, a further scenario totally depends on
the released data.
Exponential moving averages consolidated, decline and slowed down. The MACD-histogram remains in the
negative zone but slightly rises. The RSI also stands below its central line. The Stochastic sends a
signal to buy. We don’t exclude a further market descend hitting new record lows, even if the
greenback receives firm support today.
Forex News from New Forex: Commodity currencies slide amid low oil prices
The Australian and the New Zealand dollar lose ground against the greenback in the trading on Monday, July 11. The US dollar gained strong support after the release of upbeat employment data last Friday and due to low oil prices. At the moment the currency instrument AUD/USD shed 0.28% to 0.7546. The number of home loans decreased in Australia in May by 1.0% which is significantly better than the forecast at -2.0%. In April the number of loans increased by 1.4%. Tomorrow markets will be in the expectation of business conditions and business confidence in Australia.
The pair kiwi/dollar stands at 0.7243 (-0.82%). Tomorrow the release of Food Price Index for June is expected in New Zealand. In May it declined by 0.5%.
Commodity currencies suffer from falling oil prices. WTI edged down to 1.63% to $44.68 a barrel. Brent slid 1.52% to $46.05. The Canadian dollar slipped to 0.39% versus the buck to 1.3094.
The dollar index stands at 96.72 (+0.43%) which is a 2-week high.
Forex News from New Forex: US dollar advances after Friday data
Today, on July 11, the US dollar climbs against the main currencies after optimistic employment data in the US. In June 287 000 new working places were registered instead of expected 175 000. Average hourly earnings edged up 2.6% in comparison with the same period last year. The unemployment level slightly rose from 4.7% in May to 4.9% in June.
The pair euro/dollar shed 0.21% to 1.103. Pound/dollar dropped by 0.65% to 1.2868 which is close to a 31-year low. Market participants are in the anticipation of the Bank of England minutes on Thursday, July 14. It is assumed that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%. However, the Bank of England might introduce extra stimulus measures to support economy after Brexit.
The pair dollar/yen picked up 1.78% to 102.3. The Japanese currency loses ground after the decision of Prime-Minister Shinzo Abe to launch a new round of fiscal stimulus.
European stocks are in the positive zone after the Bank of Japan decision and upbeat data from the US. The pan-European index STOXX 600 surged 0.48%. The UK’s FTSE jumped 0.55%, the German DAX rose 1.07%, the French CAC 40 added 0.70%.
On Monday, July 11, the pair EUR/USD trades within the support at 1.1015 and resistance at 1.1055. As we see on today’s 5-minute chart the price is under pressure ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. In late afternoon on Friday the market showed high volatility after the publication of the US nonfarm payrolls. Today the MACD-indicator indicates the formation of a sideways market trend. Taking into account signals of most indicators, it’s worth considering orders to sell on Monday.
Forex News from New Forex: Aussie and kiwi look confident
The Australian and the New Zealand dollar significantly rise in the trading on Tuesday, July 12. Positive data from Australia and increasing oil prices lend support to these currencies. The pair AUD/USD stands at 0.7623 (+1.22%). The business confidence index in Australia climbed from 3 in May to 6 in June, the index of business conditions advanced from 10 to 12 last month.
The pair kiwi/dollar jumped to 0.7299 (+1.12%). Oil prices gain ground amid supply disruptions in Iraq. WTI surged 0.56% to $45.30 a barrel, Brent added 0.76% to $46.64. The dollar index slid 0.49% to 96.11.
In general, Asian markets show positive dynamics today. The Japanese index Nikkei edges up in the expectation of fiscal stimulus from the central bank of Japan. The Nikkei picked up 2.46%, the Topix and the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 advanced 2.4%.
The Chinese market gains as well. The CSI300 index, which includes stocks of the largest companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 2.2%. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.8%.
Forex News from New Forex: Gold falls after the release of US data
In the trading on Tuesday, July 12, gold prices decrease as market participants consider chances of interest rate hike in the USA after the release of positive employment data. Market tension subsides after the decision of the UK to leave the European Union.
Gold spot shed 0.16%. On Monday the decline was 0.8%, the biggest descend in the last two weeks. Gold futures with the delivery in August slid 60 cents or 0.05% to $1,356.00 a troy ounce. However, since the start of the year the yellow metal picked up almost 30% amid faint hopes for the interest rate hike in the USA.
Meanwhile, silver gains 0.42% to $19.30.
European markets behave confidently today. The pan-European index STOXX 600 added 1%. The German DAX advanced 1.71%, the French CAC 40 jumped 1.71% as well, the UK’s FTSE trades in flat. Uncertainty over the political situation in the UK gradually eases after the appointment of Theresa May as the UK Prime-Minister. This Wednesday, on July 13, she is getting officially into office.
In the trading on Tuesday, July 12, the pair EUR/USD keeps it yesterday’s bearish sentiment. As we see on a 5-minute chart it trades within the support at 1.1045 and resistance at 1.1125. The indicator Stochastic shows that the pair EUR/USD stands in the zone of overbought. It allows us to suppose that the pair will decline in the short run.
At the moment market participants are in the anticipation of the Bank of England meeting over the interest rate this Thursday. And also we wait for the retail data from the USA which is due to be released on Friday and might influence on the dollar rate. These two events may affect changes within the pair this week.
Forex News from New Forex: Asian markets closed with a rise shrugging off low data from China
Asian markets closed today with a firm rise in the expectation of new monetary stimulus from Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7%. The Japanese Topix jumped 1.1% advancing 6.3% during the last two trading sessions. The yen gained 0.06% against the buck after a 4% decline at the start of the week.
The Australian and the New Zealand dollar shed 0.01% and 0.04%, respectively. The fall is caused by the decrease of import in China by 8.4% in June and export by 4.8%. It has strong influence on these currencies as China is the leading export market for Australia and New Zealand. The yuan slid 0.04% against the US dollar. The Hang Seng climbed 0.5%, the China Enterprises Index picked up 0.06%. Market participants assume that the central bank of China will introduce new stimulus measures in the coming months.
European stocks move in mixed ways in the trading on Wednesday, July 13. Markets recover after Brexit. The pan-European index STOXX 600 edged up 0.24%. The UK’s FTSE surged 0.08%, the German index DAX slipped to 0.08%, the French CAC 40 climbed 0.21%.
Forex News from New Forex: US dollar slides against the main currencies
In the trading on Wednesday, July 13, the US dollar tumbles against the leading currencies. The instrument euro/dollar climbed 0.15% to 1.1074. Pound/dollar added 0.19% to 1.3266 after the appointment of Theresa May as the UK Prime-Minister. However, the pound remains under pressure due to the Bank of England meeting which is planned on this Thursday, July 14. The current interest rate at 0.50% might be cut down to 0.25% in order to launch the program of monetary easing to support the economy after the decision of the UK to leave the European Union.
The pair dollar/Swiss franc tumbled 0.41% to 0.9843, the US dollar edges down to 0.05% against the loonie to 1.3032. The Bank of Canada should make a decision over the interest rate today. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%.
The dollar index slipped to 0.17% to 96.39.
In the trading on Wednesday the pair stands within the immediate support at 1.1058 and resisitance at 1.1132. As for short-term prospects, on a 4-hour chart we see that the MACD-histogram has just entered a positive zone but the indicator RSI has not staying below its central line. However, the oscillator Stochastic says that the pair is oversold which implies a price increase.
EMA20 and EMA55 flatten after the recent crossing downwards which says about the consolidation within the current level of support at 1.1058.
On Wednesday the currency pair trades with a considerable price rise within the immediate support at 1.3109 and resistance at 1.3435.
During the first part of the previous trading session the pair was firmly gaining drafting off the local support level at 1.2985 and later consolidated above the strong resistance at 1.3150. Then the pair continued its rise to 1.3290 with a rally within up to 300 pips. Today during the Asian trading session the pound sterling advances against the greenback to 1.3338, after that there was seen some correction which should determine the power of opposing parties. In case of the dominance of bears the price might reverse to 1.2985. Otherwise, we might expect testing the level at 1.3435.
In a 4-hour timeframe the MACD-histogram entered a positive zone and keeps edging up. Both the RSI and the oscillator Stochastic indicate that the pair is overbought and the bullish sentiment of the market eases. However, the price remains above lines of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which gives bulls good chances for the further upsurge.
Forex News from New Forex: Interest rate in the UK, in the expectation of a fresh record
The base rate in the United Kingdom is an interest rate at which commercial banks take loans from the Bank of England. In theory: the lower the rate is, the cheaper loans for borrowers are. The decision over the UK interest rate is made by nine members of the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England. A meeting of the bank takes place every month. Studying the economic state of the country the decision over the rate is made.
The rate hike decreases inflation supporting savings of citizens and keeping them from loans. Thus, reducing the demand for goods in shops. The rate cutdown boosts the demand and increases prices as the pure income of people rises.
If we consider the period from 1971 to 2016, the highest interest rate was in March 1979 at 17%, the lowest rate is recorded at the moment at 0.5%. This rate has been unchanged since March 2009.
However, after the decision of the UK to leave the European Union most market participants are in the anticipation of the further decline up to 0.25%. Later today we will see if the Bank of England sets a fresh record.
Forex News from New Forex: Pound sterling hit a 2-week high
On July 14 the pound sterling advanced to a 2-week high against the US dollar after the decision of the Bank of England to keep the interest rate at 0.5%. The pair pound/dollar surged 1.85% to 1.3388 today. The pound picked up 1.20% against the euro to 0.8327.
At the meeting of the Bank of England eight out of nine members of the Monetary Committee voted to hold the interest rate unchanged at 0.5% instead of an expected decrease to 0.25%. However, it was claimed in the report that the Committee will return to the question of the interest rate cutdown this August. It was also mentioned that the decision of the UK to the leave the EU might weaken the economy and expose the housing market to a risk.
European indexes reacted with a rise after the report of the Bank of England. The pan-European STOXX 600 added 0.78%, the UK’s FTSE climbed 0.07%, the German DAX gained 1.26%, the French CAC 40 edged up 1.04%.
In the trading on Thursday, July 14, EUR/USD keeps trading in a wide side channel. As we see on a 5-minute chart today, the pair trades within support at 1.1085 and resistance at 1.1130. This type of trading will continue until there is some certainty over the procedure of Brexit and it consequences.
Today’s outcome of the Bank of England meeting over the interest rate will definitely influence on the sentiment of the pair EUR/USD. The result might exert considerable pressure on the euro.
Forex News from New Forex: Gold and silver decline
Gold and silver prices tumbles in the trading on Friday, July 15, as the US dollar advances. Gold futures with the delivery in August shed 0.03% to $1.331.80 a troy ounce. Spot gold slid 0.29% to 1.330.80 a troy ounce. We suppose that spot gold might decrease further to $1,313. During this week the precious metal lost 2.9%. Currently gold is under pressure due to positive economic news from the US. Gold holdings in the largest EFT-fund SPDR Gold Trust slipped to 0.25% to 962.85 tonnes on Thursday. Silver futures edged down to 0.43% to $20.235. Spot silver fell 0.69% to $20.16.
Oil shows negative dynamics as well amid concerns over the supply glut. Crude oil with the delivery in August lost 0.96% to $45.24. In the Mercantile Exchange in London Brent slipped to 0.95% to $46.92 a barrel. Positive news from China kept oil from the further decline on Friday. The GDP of China climbed 1.8% in the second quarter, year on year the rise is 6.7%. Retail sales in June increased by 10.6% year on year. Industrial production gained 6.2%.
Forex News from New Forex: European shares fall after the attack in France
European shares lose ground in the trading on Friday, July 15, after the horrifying terrorist attack in France where at least 84 people died. The French index CAC 40 slid 0.38%, the UK’s FTSE lost 0.20%, the German DAX edged down to 0.22%. The pan-European STOXX 600 slid 0.18%.
Clear that after the yesterday’s tragedy in Nice Europe tries to come to itself and all the other news are of secondary importance. French economy has been quite resistant to such kind of shocks but the last event might hit the touristic sector of the country.
European currency advanced 0.04% against the US dollar to 1.1123. The euro surged 0.42% to 117.61 against the yen. Against the pound sterling the euro shed 0.17%.
In the trading on Friday, July 15, EUR/USD keeps trading in the side channel. The pair has been showing this trend for three weeks since the referendum in the UK. As we see on today’s 5-minute chart it trades within the support at 1.1105 and resistance at 1.1155.
It is likely that the pair will breach the strong resistance at 1.1165, then next day we will see an ascending trend. Otherwise, the sideways trend will remain.
Forex News from New Forex: The kiwi is under pressure
Today, July 18, Statistics New Zealand data was published. The consumer price index in New Zealand in June was 0.4%. This is less than expected.
Against these data the new Zealand dollar weakened and now is under pressure. NewForex analysts believe that soon the pressure will continue.
Market participants expect the possible increase in pressure on Thursday. This will happen as there new data from Statistics New Zealand and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be published.
In morning trading the new Zealand dollar declined against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Euro.
In the trading on Monday, July 18, the pair EUR/USD shows downward movement. As we see on today’s 5-minute chart it trades within the support at 1.1035 and resistance at 1.1075.
In the coming days, perhaps, the political situation in Turkey will affect the movement of the pair. These events can exert significant pressure on the Euro and ensure the growth of the us dollar.