Forex Analysis by LiteForex - page 8
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EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The pair continues growing amid some weakening in the USD.
The American currency remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. Experts predict that monetary policy will stay unchanged. Furthermore, due to problems in China and falling oil prices the regulator might delay the next rate hike until summer that would significantly support the pair.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0787 (active trade), 1.0820.
Resistance levels: 1.0977, 1.1370.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0820 with the target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.0780.
USD/CHF: waiting for the Fed decision
Current trend
Today the pair is falling amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. Experts do not expect the rate to be hiked. At the same time, investors will focus their attention on commentaries by the regulator, in which there could be announced that monetary policy tightening is going to be delayed that would substantially pressure the pair.
Support and resistance
On the hourly, 4-hour and weekly charts, the pair is moving along ascending channels.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0120 (middle of the channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0100 (ЕМА50), 1.0040 (ЕМА144, lower border of the channel), 1.0000 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). From further fall the pair is prevented by support levels at 0.9855 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.9830 (December 2015 lows).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0195 would send the pair towards 1.0400 (upper border of the channel on the weekly chart).
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic signal sales.
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.000, 0.9975, 0.9830, 0.9765.
Resistance levels: 1.0195, 1.0400.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0130 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.0000, 0.9855 and stop-loss at 1.0160.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0185 with targets at 1.0200, 1.0260, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0140.
XAG/USD: technical analysis
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, both directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are insignificant. The DI lines are directed down; ADX is growing.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the area of the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The DI lines are moving in different directions; ADX is falling.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 14.37, 14.25, 13.99, 13.78, 13.68.
Resistance levels: 14.52, 14.70, 14.95, 15.28, 15.51, 16.13, 16.34.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.52 with targets at 14.70, 14.95 and stop-loss at 14.37.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.37 with targets at 14.25, 14.00 and stop-loss at 14.50.
Validity – 1-2 days
USD/JPY: general review
Current trend
The pair continues growing even though the Fed at yesterday’s meeting left the interest rate unchanged.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to expand its stimulation program to reach the inflation target of 2% that would lead to further fall in the Yen. Furthermore, cheaper national currency would allow increasing Japanese exports and making them more competitive, that would have a positive effect on the economy.
According to forecasts, the pair can grow to the level of 125.00.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 117.85.
Resistance levels: 119.10.
Trading tips
Open long positions from the level of 119.20 with the target at 122.35 and stop-loss at 118.90.
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EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
Today the pair continued growing despite the publication of mixed data in the eurozone. The Producer Price Index for December fell to -0.8% that was substantially worse than forecasts of economists. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate slightly fell as well, from 10.5% to 10.4%. Therefore, continuous decline in prices could force the ECB to expand its stimulation program or cut interest rates further, either of which would significantly pressure the Euro.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0894.
Resistance levels: 1.0943.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0943 with the target at 1.0890 and stop-loss at 1.0955.
AUD/USD: pair resumed fall
Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly fell after the RBA decision on interest rates. As was expected, the regulator left the rate unchanged at 2%.
At the same time, in its Rate Statement the regulator noted that it does not rule out further monetary policy easing this year if the economy continues slowing down due to the outside factors. It also noted that inflation is likely to remain very low in the medium-term.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7015 (local low), 0.6981, 0.6936, 0.6900 (21 January low), 0.6875, 0.6850, 0.6826 (15 January low).
Resistance levels: 0.7045 (local high), 0.7068, 0.7100, 0.7128 (local high), 0.7158, 0.7183, 0.7200 (5 January high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7015 with the target at 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.7060. Validity – 2-3 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7015 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7100 and stop-loss at 0.6960. Validity – 2-3 days.
Analytics from LiteForex
USD/CAD: pair is falling
Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly declined amid growing oil prices that were supported by strong data on the Caixin China Services PMI.
In addition, the pair was pressured by mixed data from the US. The ADP Employment Change for January came out at 205 thousands that was better than forecasts but substantially worse than the previous figure. The Markit Services PMI for January fell from 53.7 to 53.2 points, which did not match the expectations.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to labour market data from the US and Canada.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly widening. MACD continues growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3780 (local low), 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3622 (10 December 2015 low), 1.3554, 1.3500.
Resistance levels: 1.3850 (local high), 1.3900, 1.3947, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.4050, 1.4100 (local high), 1.4169, 1.4200, 1.4325 (26 January high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3780 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.3700. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3760. Validity – 2-3 days
USD/CHF: Franc continues growing
Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell.
The pair was pressured by the latest Fed monetary policy meeting that substantially decreased chances of further interest rate hikes in the US. In addition, the USD was pressured by poor data on the Nonfarm Payrolls that fell from 262 to 151 thousands, while economists predicted 190 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings grew by 0.5%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning down while the price range is widening. At the same time, the indicator formed a signal for correctional growth as the price has left the range. MACD is falling and giving a strong sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and turning horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.9920 (local low), 0.9900, 0.9879 (11 January low), 0.9851 (24 December low), 0.9818, 0.9800, 0.9784 (14 December low).
Resistance levels: 0.9956 (local high), 1.0000 (psychologically important level), 1.0032, 1.0067, 1.0100, 1.0123 (3 February high), 1.0166, 1.0200, 1.0254 (29 January high), 1.0281.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.0000 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.0100 and stop-loss at 0.9960. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.0000 with the target at 0.9900 and stop-loss at 1.0050. Validity – 2-3 days