Forex Analysis by LiteForex - page 4
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AUD/USD: in contracting triangle
Current trend
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. This decision confirms the Fed is confident that US economic recovery is sustainable and suggests the Regulator has a favorable outlook for the global economy.
RBA, in its turn, is likely to keep loose monetary policy due to weak inflation. Moreover, the Australian Dollar is under pressure from a continuous fall in commodity prices, in iron ore price in particular, as Australia remains the largest exporter of this raw material. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair tends to continue declining.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, a contracting triangle has formed with the lower border near the level of 0.7190 and the upper border at 0.7335 (EMA144). The price is likely to breakdown the lower border of the triangle and continue declining to 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980 and 0.6910 (year lows).
In case of a correctional growth, the price might reach the level of 0.7335 (EMA144 on the daily chart). An upward trend would resume only after the consolidation above the levels of 0.7465 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci).
Support levels: 0.7215, 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7500.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7260 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7335, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7190.
USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
During yesterday’s session, the pair significantly grew.
The pair was supported by strong data on the US labour market, where the number of Initial Jobless Claims fell from 282 to 271 thousands, against a forecasted decline to 275 thousands. In addition, the pair is supported by strengthening after the Fed decision on interest rates US Dollar and falling oil prices. In current conditions, the Bank of Canada might decide to continue with monetary policy easing and cut the interest rate to -0.5% that would add to the pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Price Index for November in Canada.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD’s histogram is above the zero and its signal lines indicating strong upward trend. The K% line of Stochastic is about to cross over the D% line suggesting a possibility of a correction in the pair.
Support levels: 1.3900, 1.3840, 1.3800.
Resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4050, 1.4100.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4000 with targets at 1.4050, 1.4100.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3900 with targets at 1.3840, 1.3800.
XAU/USD: general analysis
Current trend
On Thursday, the XAU/USD pair was falling, being under pressure from the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. Having lost more than 2500 points, the price for gold was moving down towards its year lows, reached at the beginning of December. At present, the price has started correcting up in the area of 1054.35.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the lower and the meddle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The DI lines of ADX are crossing each other and directed down.
The indicators confirm a downward trend in the XAU/USD pair.
Today, the price is likely to remain within the channel between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1049.85 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1049.98 (December low).
Resistance levels: 1067.73 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1084.65, 1099.14, 1120.41, 1133.94, 1165.35, 1191.93.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1060.50 and stop-loss at 1051.00. Validity – 1 day
USD/JPY: BoJ loose monetary policy
Current trend
At the meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy mostly unchanged. BoJ Governor stated the Regulator aims at achieving an inflation rate of 2 per cent; however, much depends on the price of oil. Therefore, Japan’s Central Bank might start taking more decisive action soon.
Today, the US Dollar is gaining back its losses against the Japanese Yen. As the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have different approaches to monetary policy, the USD/JPY pair tends to be strengthening in the medium term.
Support and resistance
Strong support levels are 121.35 (EMA on the daily chart) and 120.55 (EMA200 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart, 61.8% Fibonacci). After the consolidation below the level of 120.55, the price might decline further to 120.00 and 118.85.
If the price overcomes the resistance levels of 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.10 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci), an upward trend might resume towards 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions; on the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions, suggesting a downward correction is, possibly, nearing the end.
Support levels: 121.35, 121.00, 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
Resistance levels: 121.50, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 121.90, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.10 with targets at 120.55, 120.00, 118.85 and stop-loss at 121.60.
GBP/USD: important statistics
Current trend
Important data on the UK economy is expected during the week.
Tomorrow data on the Current Account is due. According to forecasts, in November the budget deficit increased by about 4.7 billion Pounds. On Wednesday, data on the third quarter GDP is out. The figure is expected to remain at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, latest data on consumer inflation showed a near-zero growth, while producer price indices significantly fell.
Therefore, absence of inflation growth and poor macroeconomic statistics shift the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the UK to the second half of 2016 that will continue pressuring the pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling towards the lower border if a descending channel near the level of 1.4860.
An upward correction in the pair could continue up to the levels of 1.5000 (ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart), 1.5085 (ЕМА144), 1.5120 (ЕМА200), 1.5230 (23.6% Fibonacci correction and upper border of the descending channel). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 1.4860 will accelerate the fall towards 1.4800, 1.4750 and 1.4600 (year lows).
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750.
Resistance levels: 1.4960, 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5230.
Trading tips
Open short positions from current prices with targets at 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4930.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4940 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4890.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The single European currency is trading slightly up against the US Dollar. At present, the pair remains within the range of 1.0910-1.0930. Analysts suggest the USD will continue strengthening as the Fed has started tightening US monetary policy. ECB, in its turn, tends to expand monetary stimulus to boost the EU economy.
GDP data for the third quarter is due today in the US. If the indicator comes in above the forecast of 1.9%, EUR short positions should be placed.
Support and resistance
The support level is 1.0807.
The nearest resistance level is 1.1009.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1009 with the target at 1.0815 and stop-loss at 1.1065.
XAG/USD: growth impulse getting weak
Current trend
Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said a hike in US interest rates is seen as a start of a new period in US economic growth. US economy has a solid momentum going into 2016. He also noted the Fed might continue increasing rates not at every meeting but every other meeting. Therefore, the US Dollar tends to strengthen while the price of precious metals will remain under pressure.
However, due to geopolitical tensions and global financial markets instability, demand for the safe haven assets might increase.
Support and resistance
Despite OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions, the growth impulse is getting weak.
The price reached the resistance levels of 14.20 (ЕМА144), 14.30 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Theoretically speaking, an upward correction might reach the level of 14.45 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The pair is trading in a descending channel on the daily chart with the lower border near the level of 13.50 and in a descending channel on the weekly chart with the lower border below the level of 13.20. After the breakdown of the level of 14.00 (August lows), the fall will accelerate.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.65, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.45, 14.80, 15.05, 15.30.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.20 with targets at 14.00, 13.65, 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.40.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.55 with targets at 14.75, 15.00 and stop-loss at 14.40.
XAU/USD: general analysis
Current trend
After a strong growth at the beginning of the week, the price of gold declined and was ranging between 1080.68 and 1071.79 on Tuesday. At present, the price remains in the area of 1073.85 and might start correcting up to this week high 1081.60.
Durable Goods Orders statistics for November are due today in the US. This data is an important indicator for the market; its growth has a positive effect on the economy. However, analysts expect a decline to -0.7% from 3.0% in October that might affect the USD and ease the pressure on the XAU/USD pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 remain above the current price and directed down. According to the indicator, the pair is in a negative trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with almost no volumes. ADX indicator suggests a decline in the pair. The DI lines are directed parallel and down, ADX is falling.
Support levels: 1068.46 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1051.22, 1046.43 (beginning of December low).
Resistance levels: 1084.74 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1097.67, 1118.26, 1131.65.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1080.87 and stop-loss at 1068.46.
If the price consolidates below the level of 1068.46, short positions would become valid. Open short positions from the level of 1065.60 with the target at 1051.22 and stop-loss at 1073.00.
USD/JPY: pair declined
Current trend
Last week, the Japanese Yen gained support when the Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor gave a generally favorable outlook of the country’s economy.
At present, the USD/ JPY pair still tends to continue declining.
However, Japan is undergoing a period of a weak growth in Industrial Production, Services PMI and a decline in exports. Moreover, inflation will remain low in the medium term. Thus, BoJ might have to consider further changes to monetary policy.
Support and resistance
A decline in the pair has stopped at the support level of 120.55 (EMA200 on the daily chart and 61.8% Fibonacci) which is also the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart. While the price remains above this level, it tends to grow in the medium term.
The breakout of the resistance levels of 121.35, 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.00 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci) would allow the price to strengthen to 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA histogram is near the zero line. Amid a decline in trading activity due to the upcoming holidays, the pair is likely to remain near the level of 121.00.
Support levels: 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
Resistance levels: 121.35, 121.50, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 121.60 with targets at 121.90, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 120.35 with targets at 120.00, 118.85, 118.00 and stop-loss at 120.75.
AUD/USD: growth in oil prices supported AUD
Current trend
Yesterday, after the Energy Information Administration reported a fall in US crude inventories, the price of oil grew by 3.8%.
Since opening of the trading day, the AUD/USD pair has been strengthening amid a growth in commodity prices. The Australian Dollar gained support as Australia is a large exporter of commodities.
However, in the medium term, the pair tends to continue declining due to different approaches to monetary policy of the Fed and RBA.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims data, due in the US. If the indicator comes in below the forecast, the pair might get another impulse for growth.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions.
The nearest resistance level is 0.7290. If this level is broken out, a growth to 0.7325 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be possible.
If the price declines below the level of 0.7210, it might move further down to 0.7100 (lower border of an ascending correctional channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7325, 0.7400, 0.7450, 0.7510.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7220 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7310 with targets at 0.7325, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7280.