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Germany Ifo Business Climate Likely continued to Improve
The index has been on a clear uptrend since its trough in October 2014. The combination of a lower oil price, and European Central Bank easing policies that led to euro (EUR) depreciation and lower borrowing rates is helping German businesses. Exporters are likely to be particularly positively affected by EUR depreciation. In the last survey, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers all showed an improved outlook. The construction-sector outlook deteriorated, but remains strong. Germany is expected to maintain this positive momentum in Q2, unless geopolitical events raise uncertainty or the situation in Greece becomes more dramatic. "We expect the German IFO business climate index to have increased to 108.7 in April from 107.9 in March, an eight-month high", said Standard Chartered in a report on Thursday.
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Japan Producer Prices Rise 3.2% In March
An index measuring producer prices in Japan were up 3.2 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - standing at 103.0. That was just shy of forecasts for 3.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the February reading. Among the individual components, prices were down for hotels, real estate, communications and transportation. For the first quarter of 2015, producer prices were up 3.3 percent on year, slowing from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. They were also down 0.1 percent on quarter after adding 0.2 percent in the three months prior.
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Americas Roundup: Cad Rapidly Depreciating Vs. Usd on Friday, Poloz Speech Weighs - 27 April, 2015
Market Roundup United States Durable Goods Mar 4%, forecast 0.6%, previous -1.4% United States Non-def Ex-Air Mar -0.5%, forecast 0.3%, previous -2.2%, def spending skews headline number Mexico Retail Sales YY Feb 5.6%, forecast 4.2%, previous 4.7%, rates on hold unless inflation rises United States Mar building permits revised number mm increase to 1.042 mln vs previous 1.039 mln United States Mar building permits revised chg mm increase to -5.4 % vs previous -5.7 % Argentina Feb economic activity yy increase to +1.4 % (forecast 0.5 %) vs previous 0.0 % Argentina Mar industrial output nsa increase to -1.6 % (forecast -1.5 %) vs previous -2.2 % Colombia's central bank holds key lending rate at 4.5 pct, as expected Greece's Varoufakis agreement with lenders will be difficult but will happen, there is no other choice; Greece needs a deal & is ready to compromise Germany'S Merkel says we will do everything to ensure that Greece stays in the Euro zone European governments have largely failed to reform (EU document) Bank of Canada's Poloz Oil price shock soon to be positive overall for Canada Reuters Poll Brazil's CB to hike rates 50bps next week to 13.25% (42/48 economists) Economic Data Ahead No Significant Data Key Events Ahead Sat Apr 25 (1130 ET/ 1530 GMT) German Bundesbank Pres Weidmann & German FinMin Schaeuble to participate in a press conference FX Recap USD/CAD: Canadian dollar is now rapidly depreciating vs. its American counterpart on Friday, lifting USD/CAD to session highs near 1.2180. Canadian dollar shed further ground following Poloz speech. USD dynamics and the crude oil performance will remain the main drivers for the CAD into the next week. GDP figures for the month of February, due on Thursday will also be watched. Currently the pair is up 0.21% at 1.2170. Immediate resistance is at 1.2208 (low Apr 22) followed by 1.2250 (high Apr 23) and then 1.2328 (high Apr 16). Supports on the downside are at 1.2135 (low Apr 23), 1.2100 (psychological level) and finally 1.2088 (low Apr 17). Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.20 (700M),1.2035-50 (700M), 1.2165 (804M), 1.22 (807M) USD/JPY: Greenback is losing face in to the closing hours of the week's session. USD/JPY bears in charge ahead of BoJ next week. The pair has lost the 119 handle in a bearish market, and is currently trading at the day's low of 118.84 after having made a high of 119.67. Supports is seen at 118.30 (March 26 low), while resistances are at 120.14 and 120.44. Option expiries Monday 27th: 119.00 (738M), 120.00 (1.8BLN) EUR/USD: Renewed optimism regarding a potential EU-Greece deal pre-Eurogroup meeting gave extra legs to the pair. Markets shrugged off poor results from the preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs as well as mixed IFO numbers. Lack of progress in the Eurogroup meeting prevented EUR-bulls to advance beyond the key barrier at 1.0900. Euro is above 1.0800 vs USD, on track to close the second consecutive week with gains. Another test of the 1.0900 handle and the critical resistance band at 1.1040/60 in the pipeline in the upcoming sessions. Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.0800 (521M), 1.0900 (1.1BLN) EUR/GBP is consolidating lower after the cross was punished from above the 0.72 handle. EUR/GBP rally ran in to strong offers just shy of the 0.7200 round figure at the cloud base at 0.7194. The pair is currently trading at 0.7160 with a high of 0.7212 and low of 0.7147. 0.7015 (March low) and 0.7000 (psychological level) are key supports.
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Uk Consumption to Drive Growth, Investment Under Pressur
UK GDP is expected to have expanded 0.7% q/q (2.8% y/y) in Q1, slightly higher than the 0.6% q/q rise in Q4-2014. Household consumption likely remained the key contributor to GDP growth, as it has been since the beginning of the UK recovery. Net trade is also likely to have made a marginally positive contribution, leading to a smaller trade deficit. Business investment may have remained under pressure due to election uncertainty; it fell 0.9% q/q in Q4. Whether we see a rebound in investment in Q2 will depend on how quickly the uncertainty fades after the election. Regarding GDP's sectoral breakdown, the average services PMI for Q1 was higher than in Q4-2014, a signal that the recovery remains very much driven by the services sector. Industrial production is more subdued recently, especially the oil-extraction sector.
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Euro Area Consumer Confidence Likely dipped in April
The final euro-area consumer confidence index is expected to match the flash release of -4.6 in April, dropping from -3.7 prior, which was the highest reading since 2007. The main reasons for higher consumer confidence are lower energy prices and easier credit conditions for households, which support real disposable household income. Wages and salaries increased 1.1% y/y in Q4-2014 in the euro area, about 1% higher than inflation, supporting real incomes. There are also some signs that the labour market is improving. However, this is not the case for all euro-area countries. Labour markets in Germany and Spain are among the best performing, while they remain stagnant in France and Italy.
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New Zealand Has NZ$631 Million Trade Surplus
New Zealand had a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$631 million in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That topped forecasts for a surplus of NZ$300 million following the NZ$50 million surplus in February. Exports were down 2.0 percent on year to NZ$4.9 billion, while imports climbed an annual 4.1 percent to NZ$4.3 billion. Year to date, New Zealand has a trade deficit of NZ$2.407 billion versus forecasts for NZ$2.700 billion after coming in at NZ$2.181 billion in February.
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New Zealand Building Permits Climb 11% In March
The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 11.0 percent on month in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - standing at 2,271, a nine-year high. That topped forecasts for an increase of 2.0 percent following the 6.3 percent contraction in February. "Townhouses, units, and retirement villages have driven the increase in new dwelling consents over the past year," business indicators manager Neil Kelly said. On a yearly basis, the total number of permits issued spiked 14.0 percent. The value of permits issued in March climbed NZ$128 million or 10 percent to NZ$1.4 billion. Individually, residential work was up NZ$125 million or 16 percent to NZ$925 million, while non-residential work added NZ$3 million or 0.7 percent to NZ$427 million. By region, there were 756 permits issued in Auckland (of which 449 were houses). Canterbury had 588 permits (of which 460 were houses) and Waikato had 219 (of which 186 were houses).
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Australia Inflation Expected To Slow - TD Securities
Consumer prices in Australia are expected to have decelerated in April, the latest survey from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute showed on Monday. Inflation is forecast to have slowed to 0.3 percent on month after it was called at 0.4 percent in March. On a yearly basis, consumer prices are tipped to slow to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent in the previous month. The data further fuels speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may act to cut interest rates in the near term.
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Australia Performance Of Service Index Contracts In April - AiG
The service sector in Australia swung to contraction in April, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Tuesday, with a Performance of Service Index score of 49.7. That's down from 50.2 in March, and it slips below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Among the individual components of the survey, new orders, services sales, supplier deliveries and services businesses all contracted in April, while services employment expanded.
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New Zealand Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.8% In Q1
The unemployment rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That missed forecasts for 5.5 percent, and it was up from 5.7 percent in the previous three months. Employment was up 0.7 percent on quarter - also missing expectations for 0.8 percent and down from 1.2 percent in Q4. On a yearly basis, employment added 3.2 percent versus forecasts for 3.3 percent and down from 3.5 percent in the previous three months. The participation rate was a record high 69.6 percent - beating forecasts for 69.4 percent, which would have been unchanged.
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