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Americas Roundup:euro slips Against US Dollar After Strong U.s. Data,safe-Havens Gain on attempted Turkish Coup-July 16th,2016
Market Roundup
? Key U.S. data shows strength, though U.Mich, Empire disappoint. ? U.S. June industrial output +0.6% vs expected +0.2%.
? U.S. June retail sales beat f/c, +0.6% vs expected +0.1%.
? U.S. core CPI in line at +0.2% m/m, +2.3% y/y.
? Bank of England's chief economist says UK needs prompt, muscular stimulus.
? Lockhart: Fed debate is sooner vs later, not hawks against doves
? Fed's Bullard sees upside risks to call for one rate hike in 2016
? Aug. 2 "reasonable" for Spain confidence debate on government -Deputy PM
? Bank of Italy cuts Italy's growth outlook following Brexit
? U.S. 2016 budget deficit seen USD 600 billion, 16 billion less than earlier forecast-White House.
? Markets predict decades of inflation frustration. Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) ? New Zealand 22:45 CPI QQ Q2 forecast 0.5%, 0.20%-previous
? New Zealand 22:45 CPI YY Q2 forecast 0.5%, 0.40%- previous
? China 1:30 China House Prices YY Jun 6.90%- previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
? No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1000 levels and currently trading at 1.1045 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1090 and hit lows at 1.1023 levels. Euro declined sharply against the dollar on Friday as upbeat U.S. data and on mounting worries that Turkey's armed forces had taken power in the country boosted dollar demand across the board. Reports of the coup attempt also stoked safe-haven bids for U.S. Treasury bonds, paring their earlier losses. U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June as Americans bought motor vehicles and a variety of other goods, bolstering views that economic growth picked up in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month after gaining 0.2 percent in May. Industrial output increased 0.6 percent last month, reversing May's 0.3 percent drop. Manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent amid broad increases in production, including a 5.9 percent surge in auto assembly. It was the third straight month of increases and lifted sales 2.7 percent from a year ago. The bullish data and a rally on Wall Street could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, but much will depend on policymakers' assessment of the impact on the U.S. economy of Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.3100 levels and currently trading at 1.3201 levels. It reached session high at 1.3247 and hit low at 1.3130 levels. Sterling edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the currency pair was weighted down as upbeat U.S. data boosted the greenback across the board, and the Bank of England's chief economist said Britain needed "muscular" stimulus to boost the economy. In his first speech since Britain voted last month to leave the European Union, the BoE's Andrew Haldane said the central bank needed to come up with a "package of mutually-complementary monetary policy easing measures" in time for a rate-setting meeting on Aug. 4. The pound fell almost 1 U.S. cent after the speech, and continued to weaken throughout the day, as data showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, reinforcing the view that U.S. economic growth picked up in the second quarter. For the week, though, sterling was on track for its best performance in more than four months, with a more than 2 percent rise against the dollar, boosted by the BoE's surprise decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
USD/CAD is supported at 1.2860 levels and is trading at 1.2951 levels. It has made session high at 1.2986 and lows at 1.2860 levels. The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, retreating from an earlier 10-day high as firm U.S. data supported the greenback and domestic manufacturing data disappointed. Canadian factory sales fell more than expected in May, sliding 1.0 percent from April on weakness in motor vehicles and some energy products. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after stronger than expected retail sales added to evidence that growth in the U.S. economy has regained momentum after a first-quarter lull. Still, the Canadian dollar advanced 0.8 percent for the week as a somewhat optimistic update on Wednesday from the Bank of Canada lowered expectations for an interest rate cut.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7530 levels and currently trading at 0.7560levels. It hit session high at 0.7608 and made session lows at 0.7560 levels. The Australian dollar declined against US dollar on Friday after US economic data beat expectations, helping dollar recover some lost ground against the Aussie dollar. Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer prices gained for a fourth straight month in June, while retail sales also rose more than expected. Earlier in the Asian session, Australian dollar surged to a 10-week high after a swath of Chinese economic data beat expectations. China?s economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, soothing worries about a slowdown. The Australian dollar declined to $0.7560, from $0.7650 after the US data and further declined down after Turkey's armed forces said they had taken power in the country. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could well cut its 1.75 percent cash rate next month if inflation data due on July 27 prove to be as soft as many analysts suspect.
Equities Recap
The shares of European travel and leisure companies fell on Friday, weighing on the region's stock markets, after an attack in the French city of Nice that killed more than 80 people.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.2 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.1 percent, France?s CAC finished the day up by 0.4 percent.
The Dow industrials ended at a record high on Friday and major indexes closed a third consecutive week of gains as upbeat economic data and the start of earnings season gave investors confidence.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.04 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.11 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.11 percent.
Treasuries Recap U.S.
Treasury prices trimmed losses in late U.S. trading on Friday as the Turkish military said it had taken power in the country, kindling safe-haven demand for low-risk assets on worries about a large shift in power in the Middle East.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were 8/32 lower in price for a yield of 1.558 percent, up 3 basis points from late on Thursday.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Friday and was set for its first weekly loss since May on improving global risk sentiment and a stronger dollar after better-than-expected U.S. data.
Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,327.91 an ounce by 2:48 p.m EDT (1848 GMT), while U.S. gold settled down 0.4 percent at $1,327.40 per ounce.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, ending the week higher, after data from top energy consumers the United States and China boosted the oil demand outlook.
Brent crude futures closed up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $47.61. It slipped as much as 1.5 percent earlier to a session low of $46.65 and rose as high as $48.05.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled up 27 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $45.95 a barrel. The intraday low was $45.05 and it touched a high of $46.31 during the session.
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Fxwirepro: Nzd/usd Extends 4-Day Losing Streak, Bias Lower, Stay Short
New Zealand CPI undershot expectations in Q2, increasing the odds of RBNZ rate cut in August.
Data released today showed NZ consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annualized 0.4% pace in Q2, unchanged from Q1, but slightly lower than the estimate of 0.5%.
The pair extended downside for the the fourth-day, hit session lows of 0.7068 before paring some losses to currently trade around 0.7090 levels.
Our previous call (FxWirePro NZD-USD breaks below 20-DMA at 0.7169, good to go short on rallies - EconoTimes) has achieved TP1 and is approaching TP2.
Recommend lowering trailing stop to 0.7170, and hold for targets. Techs are biased lower, bearish invalidation only above 0.72 levels.
Immediate support and resistance are now located at 0.7060 (trendline) and 0.7166 (20-DMA).
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Boost in Turkey's Lira sends investors running back
After failing to organize a coup, Turkey's Lira surged, reclaiming about a third of its loss as officials plan to limit Brexit's impact on the country by extensive liquidity and heightened support for the currency. The Lire rose by 1.6 percent to 2.9684 after its 4.6 decline on friday. The country is now starting to attract investors who predict a possible outflow from the country and sees potential in its rallying assets. In other news, Japan's yen continues to decline as it slipped 0.6 percent to 105.47 per dollar. US stocks, meanwhile, have advanced as S&P 500 index rose to 0.2 percent.
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Aud/usd falls Below 0.7570, weighed by Nzd/usd
NZD/USD falls 1.15%, weighing on AUD/uSD ahead of RBA minutes AUD/USD briefly fall below 10-day MA at 0.7569
Next supprot at 38.2 fibonacci of 0.7505/.7675 move at 0.7535
RBA minutes out at 0.1:30 GMT
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China to Continue Building on Contested Islands
China's navy chief Admiral Wu Shenli told his counterpart U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson during a meeting in Beijing that the communist nation would proceed with construction work on the contested South China Sea islands despite foreign objection, emphasizing China's rejection of the unfavorable ruling from the arbitration tribunal in the Hague.
Admiral Wu's statement on Monday came after the international tribunal court rebuked China's historic and economic claims over the majority of the South China Sea with the release of its July 12 decision, favoring the Philippines who brought the case with a legal victory.
The Chinese navy chief stated that they will not halt their construction activities on Nansha Islands, notwithstanding any nation or individual that express their opposition. He defended the construction as 'justified and lawful' and cautioned that undertakings to pressure China will only have the opposite results, according to reports of Xinhua News Agency.
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Fxwirepro: Usd/krw Struggles to Break Key Resistance at 1142, Buy on Dips
USD/KRW is currently trading around 1140 levels.
It made intraday high at 1143 and low at 1139 levels.
Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 1130 mark.
A sustained break below 1128(October 2015 low) will tests key supports at 1121/1115/1101/1095/1078/1063 levels respectively.
Alternatively, a daily close above 1142 will drag the parity higher towards key resistances at 1152, 1162, 1176, 1182, 1196, 1201, 1209 (20D EMA) and 1220 (March 03, 2016 high) marks respectively.
In addition, South Korea?s Kospi was trading 0.25% lower at 2,011.08 points.
We prefer to take long position in USD/KRW only above 1142, stop loss 1128 and target 1152/ 1168 marks.
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Startup transactions in global decline
Startup companies supported by venture capital continue to lie low in terms of deals, and are burdened further by economic concerns and increased funding.
Reasons behind this point to larger startups such as Snapchat and Uber Technologies accounted for majority of the funding. CB Insights chief executive also forecast that there would be no improvement in terms of deal activity in the next quarters and that large deals will create an impression that funding levels are healthy.
It was also reported that despite several emerging companies in the second quarter, there would still be more of them that will be acquired at a lower value.
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Fxwirepro: Kiwi Depreciates Against Major Peers As Rbnz Signals more Easing
AUD/NZD is trading around 1.0706 marks.
Pair made intraday high at 1.0731 and low at 1.0628 marks.
Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 1.0610 marks.
On the top side, a sustained close above 1.0722 will drag the parity higher towards 1.0823/1.0976 (January 2016 high) /1.1062 (30D EMA)/1.1123/1.1298/1.1317 levels respectively.
Alternatively, a sustained break below 1.0611 mark will take the parity down towards key supports around 1.0560, 1.0420, 1.0315(May 05, 2015 low), 1.0261 and 1.0109 marks respectively.
Important to note here that in a daily chart, 20D, 30D and 55D EMA heads down and confirms the bearish trend. Current upside movement is short term trend correction only. RBNZ says a decline in the exchange rate is needed.
RBNZ says outlook for inflation has weakened due to high exchange rate.
RBNZ says likely further policy easing will be required. RSS feed
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Fxwirepro: South Korean Won Opens Onshore Trade at 1,137.5 Per Dollar, Faces Strong Support at 1128
USD/KRW is currently trading around 1134 levels.
It made intraday high at 1136 and low at 1133 levels.
Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at 1142 mark.
A sustained break below 1128(October 2015 low) will tests key supports at 1121/1115/1101/1095/1078/1063 levels respectively.
Alternatively, a daily close above 1142 will drag the parity higher towards key resistances at 1152, 1162, 1176, 1182, 1196, 1201, 1209 (20D EMA) and 1220 (March 03, 2016 high) marks respectively.
In addition, South Korea?s Kospi was trading 0.05% lower at 2,011.28 points.
We prefer to take short position in USD/KRW only below 1128, stop loss 1142 and target 1115/ 1101 marks.
News are provided byInstaForex.