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France's Hollande Presents His Case, Realizes Ground Realities at European Summit
France's Hollande presenred his case for Growth and joint euro bonds along with use of structural funds to shore up Greek growth but realised that there were not many takers for it at the summit of European leaders. He agreed with other leaders to urge Greece to continue walking on the agreed path which not many people in Greece believes in according to results of latest elections
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German Gfk Consumer Sentiment Remains steady in June Despite Turmoil
The forward looking GfK consumer sentiment for Germany stayed at 5.7 in June as expected, after 5.6 in May. Business cycle expectations in May jumped to 19.6 from 8.5 defying all the bad news the Willingness to spend increased in May to 32.0 from 27.6 in the previous month
Quotes
On outlook
"Consumers seem unfazed by the increased turbulence in the euro zone recently. The elections in France and Greece, which above all have unsettled the markets, have not damaged business cycle sentiment,"
"An important prerequisite for a sustained positive development of private consumption remains a robust labour market and here the signal is, as before, on green,"
On risk
"The present uncertain situation of the debt crisis poses a potential risk for Germany's domestic economy,"
"Should the events involving Greece and other euro zone countries intensify further or even escalate, this could quickly bring the positive trend in consumption to a standstill,"
GfK
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Finnish Trade Gap Narrows Sharply In April
Finland's unemployment rate decreased significantly in April, data released by the National Customs Board showed Thursday.
The trade deficit dropped to EUR80 million in April from EUR160 million in March. In April 2011, the trade balance was a deficit of EUR350 million.
Export of goods increased 2 percent annually to EUR4.695 billion in April. Shipments to the European Union states and Eurozone countries decreased 1 percent each during the month.
The value of imports, meanwhile, decreased 3 percent annually to EUR4.775 billion in April. Arrivals from the European Union decreased 5 percent year-on-year, while imports from the Eurozone dropped 8 percent.
In the January-April period, the trade balance was a deficit of EUR1.115 billion. Exports edged up 1 percent year-on-year during the four-month period, while imports remained broadly unchanged, data showed.
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French Business Sentiment Drops For Second Month
French business sentiment weakened for the second straight month in May, survey results from Bank of France showed Friday.
The corresponding index came in at 93, in line with forecast, but down from the prior month's reading of 94. Likewise, confidence in services dipped to 92 from 93.
The bank lowered its economic outlook. Gross domestic product is expected to contract 0.1 percent in the second quarter, revised downward by 0.1 percentage point.
Forecasts are that industrial activity will slightly improve in the short term. Service sector activity is also expected to improve over the coming weeks.
According to the survey, industrial activity declined, largely reflecting weakness in the automotive and metalworking sectors. While order books diminished due to lower demand, inventories are perceived as being slightly above targeted levels.
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Sweden Inflation Expectations Fall: Survey
Inflation expectations among Sweden's labour market parties, purchasing managers and money market players have eased in June from March, results of a survey carried out by the market research firm TNS SIFO Prospera revealed Wednesday.
All survey participants expect annual inflation to be 1.5 percent in the first year, which is less than 1.7 percent forecast in March. The expected figure for the second year was 1.9 percent, lower than 2 percent seen earlier. In five years, inflation is seen at 2.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent expected in March.
The expectations on GDP growth was also lower in the latest survey. The GDP growth forecast for the first year was lowered to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent. In the second year, the economy is seen expanding 2 percent, slower than the 2.3 percent expected earlier.
Expectations on wage growth was unchanged from the March survey at 2.8 percent. The participants continue to expect the central bank to cut the benchmark interest rate, which is the repo rate, to 1.4 percent in 3-months time.
They do not expect further easing in the policy rate in 12 months, but expect the central bank to raise it to 1.5 percent.
The survey, which is commissioned by the Sveriges Riksbank, was carried out among 255 organisations.
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European Economics Preview: SNB Rate Decision Due
The Monetary Policy Assessment of the Swiss National Bank is set to dominate the scene on Thursday, headlining a busy for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to publish German wholesale price data for May. In the meantime, Finland's consumer price figures are due. Annual inflation is seen unchanged at 3.1 percent in May.
The Swiss National Bank is set to announce its rate decision at 3.30 am ET. The central bank is likely to retain the interest rate close to zero. Also, the SNB is expected to maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro.
In the meantime, Dutch retail and external trade balance figures are due. Retail sales were up 2.2 percent year-on-year in March.
At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to release its monthly report for June. The ECB had maintained its key refi rate at a record low 1 percent at the meeting held on June 6.
Eurostat is slated to release Eurozone final inflation data at 5.00 am ET. According to flash estimate, annual inflation fell to 2.4 percent in May from 2.6 percent in April. Eurozone first quarter labor cost data is also due.
Italy's BTP auction results are due at 5.10 am ET. The government aims to raise between EUR 4 billion and EUR 6 billion.
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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Foreign Trade Data Due
Foreign trade figures from the U.K. and Eurozone are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.
At 2.00 am ET, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association is slated to release Europe's new car registrations for May. Sales were down 6.9 percent in April.
Sweden's AMV unemployment data is also due at 2.00 am ET. The jobless rate is expected to fall to 4.1 percent in May from 4.3 percent in April.
At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to publish producer prices for May. Producer price inflation is seen slowing to 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent in April. In the meantime, Hungary's industrial output figures are also due.
External trade figures from Italy and Norway are due at 4.00 am ET. The Czech central bank is set to release current account data in the meantime. The balance is forecast to show a shortfall of CZK 3.55 billion in April compared to a surplus of CZK 10.65 billion in March.
Half an hour later, the Office for National Statistics is slated to publish April foreign trade figures. The U.K. visible trade deficit is seen at GBP 8.5 billion.
At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone foreign trade and employment reports are due. The trade surplus is expected to fall to EUR 4 billion in April from EUR 8.6 billion in March.
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UK Property Asking Prices At New High, Rightmove Says
Asking prices for a property in the United Kingdom rose to a new record high in June buoyed by strong price movements in London and South East, property website Rightmove said on Monday.
Prices of new property coming to market was GBP 246,235, a third consecutive national record. This was 1 percent higher than a month earlier and 2.4 percent above last years' level.
Strong rises in the south of the country have helped to push the national average asking price into new record territory, Rightmove Director Miles Shipside said.
The report, meanwhile, observed that sellers' prices are now 2 percent up on August 2007, the month before the UK economy faced the run on Northern Rock. They have fallen considerably in real terms when compared to retail price inflation over the same period.
London is the only inflation-proof hedge seeing average asking prices 3 percent ahead of the retail price index since August 2007. London and South East regions saw new asking price records in June.
"In these uncertain economic times, lenders feel safer to lend to those with a cash-cushion, and those sitting on that cash often feel more comfortable with it invested in tangible assets, including bricks and mortar," Shipside said.
June saw a weekly run-rate of 29,394 new sellers in the three weeks prior to the disruption of the Diamond Jubilee break. This was the highest new listing run-rate recorded for two years.
Rightmove said this suggested that further increases in asking prices are unlikely as fresh supply exceeds summer demand.
A report from the Nationwide Building Society showed last month that the U.K. house prices rose 0.3 percent from a month earlier in May, while demand remained subdued. Lloyds Banking Group's Halifax division said prices increased 0.5 percent in May.
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Europe Must Revive Economic Growth, IMF Says
The International Monetary Fund on Monday urged Europe to focus on reviving economic growth to help the recovery of the region's crisis-hit economies.
A paper published by IMF staff observed that Europe needs to revive economic growth to help break the vicious cycle of the feedback loop between weak government finances, weak banks, and weak growth that continually undermine each other.
IMF also noted that with the recession continuing, and unemployment high and on the rise in many countries, European policymakers needs to do more.
The staff said both short-term and long-term solutions are needed to tackle the problem of low growth in the continent. Large-scale reforms could boost GDP by 4.5 percent over five years, according to the report.
"Structural reforms should be implemented now to anchor medium-term growth prospects," said Rodrigo Valdes, a deputy director in the IMF's European Department. "But these reforms need to be complemented to sufficiently boost growth in the short term; hence policymakers must supplement them with policies to promote demand, external in some cases, internal in others."
Common pools of resources can be strengthened and better targeted, including more forceful interventions to improve labor market conditions, the report said.
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Moody's Lifts Turkish Credit Ratings
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised its ratings on Turkish government bonds by one notch to Ba1 from Ba2 with a 'positive' outlook, citing improvement in public finances.
This is the highest non-investment grade rating. According to Moody's, the main drivers of the rating action are the significant improvement in Turkey's public finances and the policy actions that have the potential to address external imbalances.
Moody's said the improved public finances have increased shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet. Also, the authorities' recent policy actions are capable of addressing the huge current account deficit, which is the largest credit risk facing the country.
The agency said the decision to maintain the 'positive' outlook on Turkey's ratings reflected its expectation that both of the drivers that led to today's rating upgrade will continue to improve the country's fiscal and macroeconomic resilience.
An upgrade to an investment-grade rating will depend on Turkey becoming more resilient to balance-of-payment shocks, given the already favorable public-finance metrics, Moody's noted.
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