Forex News (from InstaForex) - page 9

 

US Dollar Steady Ahead Of May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Report.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S., is scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM ET. Economists expect a 17.8% year-over-year decline in the 20-city composite house price index for May.

The US dollar held steady against its major opponents ahead of the report. As of 8:55 am ET, the greenback was worth 1.4234 against the euro, 94.66 versus the yen, 1.0698 against the franc and 1.65 per pound.

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The International Monetary Fund welcomed Indonesia's fiscal stimulus plan for 2009, underscoring timely and efficient implementation of the spending program. The Washington-based agency urged Indonesia to maintain some of the stimulus measures next year.

The Executive Board of IMF noted that private consumption supported by the fiscal stimulus package helped to maintain positive economic growth. However, another round of global risk aversion could adversely affect nation's external liquidity, demand and growth prospects. To withstand these risks, the authorities should strive to achieve the appropriate policy mix and promptly adjust it as needed to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability.

The board assessed that the current level of the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals and that reserves are at a comfortable level. Some others believed that the current level of reserves and the various contingency arrangements should provide an adequate cushion.

Regarding inflation, the fund said, "Strong commitment to the medium-term inflation targets, as well as publication of inflation forecasts, would help guide inflation expectations and enhance policy credibility."

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Eurozone Economic Sentiment Rises For Fourth Straight Month In July.

Eurozone economic sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive month in July, a monthly survey from the European Commission showed Thursday. The index stood at 76, up from a revised reading of 73.2 recorded in the prior month. Economists were expecting the indicator to climb to 75. However, the level is still far below the long-term average.

Industrial and services confidence improved 2 points each to minus 30 and minus 18, respectively. Consumer confidence also climbed 2 points to minus 23 in July. At the same time, construction remained at the June level of minus 33. Confidence amongst retailers moved up by 4 points to minus 13.

Separately, the EU said the business climate indicator for the euro area increased to minus 2.71 in July from minus 2.92. But the level is still very low, even when compared to the previous historical lows of 1993.

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The public's trust in business has stabilized and is recovering significantly in some of the world's largest markets, results of a survey conducted by Edelman, a leading independent public relations firm, showed Thursday.

Edelman's previous survey, conducted in January, showed a devastating loss in trust in the private sector.

The mid-year survey was conducted among 1,675 informed public in six countries - the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, India, and China.

The survey found that India and China are the most positive about business. At 75%, India recorded the highest level of trust in business of any of the six countries surveyed. China followed with 60% saying they trust business to do what is right.

"The private sector is perceived as enabling an economic growth that has led to healthier living standards. The survey numbers reflect a high degree of national pride in the accomplishments of business," said Alan VanderMolen, president, Asia Pacific, Edelman.

In the U.S., 48% of informed public trust business to do what is right, up from a low of 36% in January. The figure for France rose to 41% from 30%.

"Trust in business is on the way back, but we're still in the middle of the game," said Richard Edelman, president and CEO, Edelman.

The public's trust in government rose the most in India, an increase of 13 points to 55% followed by the U.S., where the trust barometer rose 12 points to 42%.

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German retail sales dropped unexpectedly in June despite rising consumer confidence and low price level as recession continued to put pressure on consumer spending.

According to a provisional report from the Federal Statistical Office, retail sales for June recorded a surprise monthly decrease of 1.8% in real terms, following a revised 1.3% drop in May. Economists were looking for a 0.3% rise.

Year-on-year, sales slipped 1.6% in June, smaller than a revised 3.7% fall seen in May. The annual decline was also unexpected as economists were looking for an increase of 0.9%.

For the January to June period, retail turnover dropped 2.1% in real terms compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Sales were down nominally by 2.3%.

In nominal terms, retail sales dipped 2% year-on-year and 1.6% from the prior month in June.

Simon Junker, Commerzbank analyst said in a note that German retail sales proved to be stable despite severe recession, probably because of the still stable labor market and the low price level. The crisis has reached retail too, supporting the judgment that the largest Eurozone economy shrunk again in the second quarter, albeit only moderately, he said.

According to the analyst, the German economy would possibly pick up in the months ahead, though retail may not benefit very much in the coming months. At most, the favorable price trend could strengthen purchasing power and support sales. However, rising unemployment would dent retail sales again.

German unemployment decreased in July, which was the first decline since October 2008. Meanwhile, the jobless rate stood at 8.3%, unchanged from June.

Consumer confidence and business climate in the economy showed improvements in recent months as a result of Chancellor Angela Merkel's spending plan. Merkel is seeking a second-term in office in September elections.

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Dollar Shows Mixed Trading Against Majors.

Tuesday in Asia, the U.S. dollar showed mixed trading against its major counterparts. While the dollar recovered from a new multi-month low against the pound, it remained higher against the euro and the franc. On the other hand, the dollar eased from a 4-day high against the yen.

Data showed yesterday that the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to shrink in July but at a slower pace than in June. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June, beating economists' expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Meanwhile, a report from the U.S. Commerce Department revealed that construction spending rose 0.3% percent in June following a revised 0.8% slide in May. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.5% for the month.

The dollar strengthened against the pound after hitting a new multi-month low of 1.7005 at 9:35 pm ET Monday. At present, the pound-dollar pair is trading near yesterday's North American session close of 1.6933 with 1.682 seen as the next target level.

During Asian deals on Tuesday, the dollar edged up against the currencies of Europe and Switzerland. Currently, the dollar is worth 1.0626 against the franc and 1.4379 against the euro, compared to yesterday's close of 1.6933 and 1.4419, respectively. If the dollar climbs further, it may likely target 1.074 against the franc and 1.421 against the euro.

The dollar jumped to a 4-day high of 95.48 against the yen at 9:45 pm ET Monday. Thereafter, the dollar-yen pair weakened and it is now worth 95.08, down from yesterday's close of 95.28. The next likely target for the U.S. currency is seen at 94.6.

The monetary base in Japan was up 6.1 percent on year in July to 93.209 trillion yen, following the 6.4 percent annual expansion in June, the Bank of Japan said today. Seasonally adjusted, the monetary base fell 6.9 percent on year to 93.918 trillion yen.

The Swiss July CPI, U.K. July construction PMI and the Euro-zone June PPI are expected in the upcoming European session.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release its personal income & outlays report for June at 8:30 am ET. Economists estimate the report to show that personal income declined 1% and the personal spending increased 0.3% in the month.

At 10:00 am ET, the National Association of Realtors is due to release its pending home sales report. Economists estimate a 0.3% increase in the pending home sales index for June.

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Indonesian Central Bank Lowers Key Rate By 25 Bps.

Wednesday, the Indonesian central bank decided to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected for the ninth straight month. The Bank Indonesia reduced its benchmark rate to 6.5% from 6.75%. The decision came in line with economists' expectations.

The central bank said rising domestic demand and high commodity prices may cause inflationary pressure next year. The bank added that monetary policy would be directed to be more anticipative of the potential inflation increase.

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Thursday, Fitch Ratings maintained the stable outlook on Malaysia's local banks' credit ratings, despite very weak macro economic indicators.

The firm said the probability of capital impairment for Malaysian banks still appeared fairly low, despite the extremely stressed macro economic conditions and the reasonably-stressed assumptions simulated by the agency. Fitch said this in the context of its report titled "Stress Test on Malaysian Banks", where it attempts to simulate a fairly-stressed scenario for Malaysian banks.

The firm also noted that although banks' earnings were likely to be lower in 2009 and 2010 compared with 2008, they appeared adequate to fully absorb the credit costs associated with asset quality deterioration. This means their loss absorption capacity would likely remain adequate and financial strength largely intact, Fitch said.

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Swiss Jobless Rate Rises In July.

Switzerland's unadjusted jobless rate rose to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, the State Secretariat For Economic Affairs said Friday. That was in line with economists' expectations.

There were 145,364 unemployed in the country in July, up 5,111 from June and 53,201 from the same month of the previous year.

Youth unemployment rose 3,229 from June to 25,693 and the number of job seekers grew 5,147 to 204,137. There were 14,370 vacancies in July, down 485 month-on-month.

The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment also increased in July, to 3.9% from 3.8% recorded in June. That was also in line with economists' prediction.

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The pace of deterioration in the U.K. job market is slowing as private sector demand for staff began to stabilize following a surge of redundancies earlier in the year, results of the latest quarterly CIPD/KPMG labor market outlook survey revealed Monday.

The survey of more than 900 employers in all sectors of the economy found that not only are far fewer employers expecting to make staff redundant but the scale of planned redundancies has also reduced. However, signs of improved employer optimism in the private sector are offset by mounting pessimism in the public sector.

"When it comes to the immediate jobs outlook, the best that can be said is that things are getting worse more slowly," John Philpott, chief economist at the CIPD said. But, he warned that "It is far too soon to rule out another avalanche of private sector redundancies later in the year." According to the survey, employment will keep falling and unemployment is still on course to top 3 million in 2010. Due to a fall in expected redundancies, the private sector unemployment would be less compared to the public sector.

The balance of private firms cutting over those recruiting fell to minus 2 from minus 30 recorded in the spring. By contrast, in the public sector the negative balance has increased from minus 3 to minus 28.

Moreover, the survey found that the pay outlook has worsened, with only 15% of respondents planning to conduct a pay review this quarter, compared to 32% in the previous quarter.

Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG said, "This conservative approach indicates that business remains unconvinced that current economic green shoots will lead to sustainable healthy growth in the near term."

Average pay increase expectations have dropped below the rate of inflation to 1.7%. Smith said this will result in a reduction in real earnings and could stifle any consumer led recovery.

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