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a question about probability

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mrluck1
439
mrluck1  

Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks

Johannes Jilles van Duijn
773
Johannes Jilles van Duijn  
mrluck1:

Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks


Thats easy  you win ratio is 160 %   :) 
Eleni Anna Branou
3677
Eleni Anna Branou  
mrluck1:

Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks


In Greece we have a saying: "2 for the oil, 2 for the vinegar and 4 for the vinaigrette" (meaning that if you mix 2 ingredients, that cost 2 (euros, usd etc.) each, you don't get something that costs 4).

Michalis Phylactou
10857
Michalis Phylactou  
Johannes Jilles van Duijn:

Thats easy  you win ratio is 160 %   :) 

You must be giving lectures at Harvard Business School :)
mrluck1
439
mrluck1  

lol

maybe i didn't specified correctly the question:

if i have 2 tatics

1- that misses only  2 trades in 10 times

2- that misses only 2 trades in 10 times


if i use tatic 1, then 2, then 1... how can i calculate in probability my new win ratio? or there isn't a way to calculate it?

thanks

Bilal Said
229
Bilal Said  
the probability is 80% too.
mrluck1
439
mrluck1  
ok thanks for your answer
Osama Shaban
1465
Osama Shaban  
Sure you will get same probability.
whroeder1
14771
whroeder1  
You get the same probability, except when they disagree.
mrluck1
439
mrluck1  

i understand your answer, butfor example, if i have 2 coins:

coin 1

coin 2

, with 50% chance in flipping each. 


If i pick only one coin and flip it in a row, the probability each flip would be:

1º: 50%

2º  25%

3º 12.5%

... and so on


So in the first i have 50% in probability and 25% next flip, but if i pick the second coin for the 2º flip, i have 50% or 25% of chance? 

Pham Duy Duc
654
Pham Duy Duc  

it's better to separate 2 tactics into 2 different accounts, so you can keep the probability of each tactic 80%, and also double the winning-rate. The reason is that you will not miss with the 20%-loss of each tactic together.

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