a question about probability

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Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks

 
mrluck1:

Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks


Thats easy  you win ratio is 160 %   :) 
 
mrluck1:

Hi friends, if i have 2 strategies that has 80% win ratio each,

1 tatic

2 tatic


and if i decide to trade 1 tatic, then  2 tatic, 1, 2, 1, 2 alternating them, my question 

is: if i combine two good tatics, i'll get an increase on my win ratio, or it will remain in 80%, and how calculate

this new probability? 


thanks


In Greece we have a saying: "2 for the oil, 2 for the vinegar and 4 for the vinaigrette" (meaning that if you mix 2 ingredients, that cost 2 (euros, usd etc.) each, you don't get something that costs 4).

 
Johannes Jilles van Duijn:

Thats easy  you win ratio is 160 %   :) 

You must be giving lectures at Harvard Business School :)
 

lol

maybe i didn't specified correctly the question:

if i have 2 tatics

1- that misses only  2 trades in 10 times

2- that misses only 2 trades in 10 times


if i use tatic 1, then 2, then 1... how can i calculate in probability my new win ratio? or there isn't a way to calculate it?

thanks

 
the probability is 80% too.
 
ok thanks for your answer
 
Sure you will get same probability.
 
You get the same probability, except when they disagree.
 

i understand your answer, butfor example, if i have 2 coins:

coin 1

coin 2

, with 50% chance in flipping each. 


If i pick only one coin and flip it in a row, the probability each flip would be:

1º: 50%

2º  25%

3º 12.5%

... and so on


So in the first i have 50% in probability and 25% next flip, but if i pick the second coin for the 2º flip, i have 50% or 25% of chance? 

 

it's better to separate 2 tactics into 2 different accounts, so you can keep the probability of each tactic 80%, and also double the winning-rate. The reason is that you will not miss with the 20%-loss of each tactic together.

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