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Brexit: Everything You Need To Know - page 5

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British Chambers of Commerce lowers GDP forecast for the UK after Brexit vote

A report on the BCC growth prediction for Britain

  • Expects the UK to grow 1.8% this year (lowered from its March estimate of 2.2%
  • And by 1% in 2017 (down from its original forecast of 2.3%)
Cites (have a guess):
  • Uncertainty surrounding the UK's negotiations over its EU exit
On the bright side:
  • The UK "would skirt with" but avoid a recession
  • The slide in GBP will help exporters
'Skirt with'? Huh?

Its BCC's first GDP forecast since the EU referendum
There is more at the BBC report

Brexit Vote Was BOE Governor Carney’s Worst Day at the Office

The night of Britain’s European Union referendum result was the toughest moment of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s career and policy makers “absolutely” got their response right, he said.

Answering questions from school children at an event hosted by the BBC in Coventry, in the U.K.’s West Midlands, Carney said he felt a “tremendous responsibility” to keep the financial system functioning as it became clear that Britons had voted to quit the bloc on June 23.

The governor said he napped for about two hours before watching the first results on television and going to the BOE’s Threadneedle Street headquarters in London at around 3:30 a.m. to help oversee its operations and coordination with central banks around the globe.

“My reaction was to make sure that the big fat plan that we had was being put in place,” Carney said. “It’s our responsibility at the BOE to be prepared for these contingencies. We had everybody in the financial world focused on the event and we had to get it right. It’s interesting, it’s exciting, it’s important and we did absolutely get it right.”

The governor said a large number of countries want to trade with the U.K. after it leaves the trading bloc and opportunities are “very large” with new technology enabling smaller firms to do more business overseas.

Trade Strengths

“Most countries want to trade with the U.K.,” he said. “You can be a small firm of three-to-five people based here and you can sell around the world. That’s increasingly going to be the case and that’s tremendously exciting. It really plays to the strength of the U.K. because this is a really, truly innovative country.”

In a wide-ranging session, he also revealed his childhood nicknames were “Carnage” and “Carnival” -- saying he preferred the former as it was “more manly” -- that he likes the confectionery bar, Dairy Milk, his favorite food is pizza, his favorite film is Gallipoli and that his guilty pleasure is watching the television show “The Great British Bake Off.”

With U.K. interest rates at a record low 0.25 percent, Carney also had a message for savers in his response to the question of what advice he would give his younger self.

“I always tried to save something of what I earned, even if just for discipline, and I would have taken some of that money and I would have put it in some sort of equity fund, something that wasn’t just a pure savings vehicle,” he said. “It’s not a bad thing when you’re young to have something that will grow, something that is higher risk. You’ve got a long life so you can ride out that risk.”


Slovakia's Fico ready to veto Brexit deal with EU

Slovakian PM Robert Fico has been stepping up his stance over Brexit 18 Sept

At an end of the first EU summit without the UK on Friday, Mr Fico said that he and other Central European leaders whose citizens make up much of the EU migrant population in Britain would not let those people become "second class citizens".

But in an interview with Reuters yesterday, he went further.

"V4 [Visegrad group] countries will be uncompromising.Unless we feel a guarantee that these people are equal, we will veto any agreement between the EU and Britain."

Fico claims to speak on behalf of the Visegrad Four (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) but the Czech ambassador to the UK pointed out this was not an "official statement" of the Visegrad countries' common position on their approach to Brexit negotiations.

He said that while he respected Mr Fico's opinion, it was for Poland - which holds the Visegrad presidency - to speak on behalf of the group.

The Visegrad group has consistently opposed EU efforts to introduce mandatory quotas for migrants but  Fico said the EU had shifted from a debate over mandatory quotas to a new principle of "flexible solidarity" over the migrant crisis.

Add the comments to the rumours surrounding UK fin min Hammond's reported stance of giving up on EU single market access to take a stronger line on immigration and the plot becomes ever thicker.


Brexit? What Brexit? EU on cruise control

The "Brexit cruise" didn't get very far. EU leaders drifted down the Danube for an hour, said little about Britain over a leisurely shipboard lunch, then circled back to Bratislava to resume Friday's summit.

Beneath the surface, though, things have been stirring on Brexit. Summit chairman Donald Tusk later stirred them up more by saying Britain's poker-faced prime minister, Theresa May, had let him glimpse her cards, indicating divorce talks prompted by June's referendum may start in four to five months.

Britain's plan to leave the European Union was at the heart of the meeting of the 27 other member states in Slovakia, where May was the notable absentee. But it seemed an empty heart.

Book-ended by talks ashore on repairing the loss of trust in the EU exposed by the British vote, the cruise conversation was minimal, according to Tusk. This left leaders back where they started - waiting for Mrs May and, when the summit ended, bickering with each other over migrants and economics.

Tusk and others repeated their mantra of "no negotiation without notification" - that the EU will not so much as talk to the British until May triggers a two-year countdown to Brexit by formally saying Britain will leave under Article 50 of the EU treaty.

The legal mechanics, written to discourage anyone quitting, mean that triggering it flips negotiating power from London to Brussels by binding Britain to a deadline to strike a deal or lose favored access to its main export market.

That poses dilemmas for both sides of how much to talk and when. Diplomats speak of a "chicken and egg situation".

Tusk's apparently casual reference to a conversation with May from which he concluded she was "quite likely" to be ready to invoke Article 50 in January or February - a timing she herself is loath to commit to as her government wrestles over strategy - was in line with EU efforts to hurry her along.

read more


Four EU countries ready to block EU/UK agreement

The UK Telegraph report on four EU countries (the Visegrad group, or V4) who say they'll  block any agreement between Britain and the EU unless V4 citizens are guaranteed the right to work in Britain

  • Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic
Robert Fico, the Slovak Prime Minister:
  • "V4 countries will be uncompromising"
  • "Unless we feel a guarantee that these people are equal, we will veto any agreement between the EU and Britain. I think Britain knows this is an issue for us where there's no room for compromise."
  • On Friday, European Union officials also warned that Britain would not gain access to the EU's single market unless Mrs May accepted rules allowing the "freedom of movement" of workers across Europe.

UK  Foreign Minister Boris Johnson spoke over the weekend

  • He said there was plenty to do before Aritcle 50 is triggered
  • But once it is, developments will move quickly,
  • "... we are not going to do it before Christmas and I think we've got to do a lot of work to get our ducks in order and that is going on
  • "... not letting the process drag on is the key phrase I would use."
Also from Reuters:
Two books on the Brexit referendum have been published, current PM May wasn't much help to then PM Cameron apparently, and neither was BJ. For the real Brexit nerds this one.

The legal challenge to the process required to trigger Article 50 will continue in October. 

The challenge seeks to provide constitutional clarity on the process required to exit the EU.

Following a preliminary hearing on 19 July 2016, a two-day judicial review will be held in the High Court before the Lord Chief Justice on Thursday 13 and Monday 17 October 2016 to clarify the constitutional process necessary to trigger Article 50 and enable the UK to leave the EU.

Gina Miller is the lead claimant in a judicial review claim against the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.

Miller is the co-founder of wealth management company SCM Private.

The claim seeks clarification from the court as to the constitutional process that must be followed by the Government in triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of the European Union to withdraw the UK from the EU.

"This case is not an attempt to subvert the outcome of the referendum or to keep Britain in the EU. It is about ensuring for the future of this country that the legally correct process for leaving under the UK constitution is followed. There is only one opportunity for this to be carried out and it should be undertaken in accordance with our laws,” says Miller.

Ms Miller's case argues that the Government cannot trigger Article 50 without an Act of Parliament.

Her legal team will argue that this is required by the rule of law and the sovereignty of Parliament, the principles on which the UK's constitution is based.

“If we do not have clarity over the correct legal way to trigger Article 50, it could result in significant legal disputes and uncertainty over the validity of the notification. My case argues that the executive, i.e. Government, should be held to account by ensuring full Parliamentary scrutiny - and a vote by both houses of Parliament on the required Act – before Article 50 is triggered,” says Miller.

Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union provides for a Member State to give notice of its exit of the European Union "in accordance" with the Member State's "own constitutional requirements".

This claim is to clarify what the UK's constitution requires before notification can be given. The Government's position has been that the Prime Minister can trigger Article 50 through the use of the Royal Prerogative powers.

Ms Miller will argue that the UK's constitution does not allow the use of the Royal Prerogative powers in this case, because the act of notification under Article 50 frustrates the rights of individuals and others enacted by Parliament in the European Communities Act 1972.

The Royal Prerogative powers cannot be used by the Government to remove or reduce rights granted by an Act of Parliament – the sovereignty of Parliament requires that only Parliament can change its own laws.

The Court indicated in July that, given the constitutional importance of the claim, any appeal will go straight to the Supreme Court and will be decided before the end of this year. This will ensure legal certainty prior to the Government's sending of the notice under its timetable.



UK to trigger Article 50 by end-March 2017

UK PM Theresa May was speaking earlier today 2 Oct 2016

 "We are going to be a fully independent, sovereign country - a country that is no longer part of a political union with supranational institutions that can override national parliaments and courts.

"And that means we are going, once more, to have the freedom to make our own decisions on a whole host of different matters, from how we label our food to the way in which we choose to control immigration."

Given the two year expiry time of the Lisbon Treaty-based trigger that means the UK will have left by the summer of 2019 and that is at least one uncertainty out of the equation.

What May also confirmed though was that immigration and UK sovereignty will be top of the negotiation agenda at the expense of the single market. That in itself only intensifies the overall uncertainty of how Brexit will pan out. She has denied that it's "hard Brexit" per se as but the jury's very much out on that.

 May told The Andrew Marr Show that the process of leaving the EU would be "quite complex" but she hoped there would now be "preparatory work" with the remaining EU members so that "once the trigger comes we will have a smoother process of negotiation".

 "It's not just important for the UK, but important for Europe as a whole that we're able to do this in the best possible way so we have the least disruption for businesses, and when we leave the EU we have a smooth transition from the EU."

The end-March deadline means that official negotiations will begin ahead of the French and German elections next year

So the passive Remain campaigner becomes a pro-active Brexiteer. Politics eh ? May's gloves  are off now and she seems keen to get Brexit pushed through before going to the country again in the next scheduled General Election in 2020.

Expect the pound to open up lower in Asia and remain ( no reverse pun intended!) on the back-foot as I have been recommending for more than a while now.

Some of this confirmation will have been factored in though as rumours have been circulating for a while and with a market essentially short we can expect to see some profit coming off the table. Keep selling those rallies though as this play has a long way to run yet.

May also promised a bill to remove the European Communities Act 1972 from the statute book but the repeal of the 1972 Act will not take effect until the UK leaves the EU under Article 50.

She said this was an "important step", adding:

 "That means the UK will be an independent sovereign nation, it will be making its own laws."

The BBC has more on today's developments here

UK's Hammond: No ifs, no buts, no second referendum, we are leaving the EU

Fin min Hammond starts his speech at the Tory party conference

  • Brexit process will be complex
  • We have the skills and ingenuity to make an exit a success
  • Brexit will need meticulous planning and steely determination
  • We are entering EU negotiations with the economy fundamentally robust

He's speaking at the Conservative conference so most of the comments are massaging their own egos and slagging off the opposition.


Germany's Fuchs: Theresa May is underestimating EU's position in Brexit talks

CDU's Michael Fuchs with some tough words

  • May is going for hard Brexit
  • Hard Brexit will harm the London market
  • Brexit timetable is now clearer
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