Brexit: Everything You Need To Know - page 10
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Scotland says to unveil single market Brexit plan this week
Scotland will publish proposals this week for how it can remain in the European single market after Britain leaves the European Union in order to avoid the "national disaster" of a "hard Brexit", the Scottish government said on Sunday.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal process of leaving the EU, by the end of March to kick off two years of exit talks.
However, her plans for those negotiations have been shrouded in secrecy and businesses and investors fear Britain might seek a "hard Brexit" where controlling immigration takes priority over access to the European single market.
While the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum, Scotland strongly backed remaining in the bloc.
The country's devolved nationalist government has said it wants to stay part of the EU when the rest of the UK leaves, and on Tuesday will put forward plans for remaining in the 500 million-consumer single market should that prove impossible.
"In line with our commitments to explore all options to protect Scotland's interests, we will set out compromise proposals which, while not conferring the full benefits of EU membership, would mitigate the Brexit damage," said Michael Russell, the Scottish government's minister for EU negotiations.
"At the heart of our plan is a framework to keep Scotland's place in the European Single Market."
Russell said such a plan faced "complexities" but a "hard Brexit" threatened 80,000 Scottish jobs over a decade.
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Brexit - Scotland proposals for how it can remain in the single market
Later this week Scotland will publish proposals for how it can remain in Europe's single market
UK's Rogers tells colleagues to challenge "muddled thinking" over Brexit
The out-going EU ambassador fires off a few words of warning 4 Jan
Sir Ivan Rogers resigned yesterday in a surprise move that gave the pound a wobble and in his resignation letter he has launched a stream of thinly veiled attacks on those in the govt that he's supposed to have been advising.
Sir Ivan's note to staff, obtained by the BBC, said:
"I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power.
"I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them."
"Government will only achieve the best for the country if it harnesses the best experience we have"
Rogers was due to step down in November after serving a 4-year term which included advising former PM Cameron on his EU-deal prior to the referendum. The rot will have started from there.
Rogers' resignation letter in full here
Hollande goes begging for Brexit banks
The WSJ reports that French president Hollande has been asking banks what would get them to come to France
JPM's CEO Jamie Dimon was apparently asked by Hollande in October what would get UK banks employees running over to France. He was told that the chances were slim unless the French relaxed it's labour laws (more chance of the moon being made of cheese).
Hollande supposedly said that change would come and would happen under his successor.
The full article (ungated) from the WSJ is here.GBP EUR Slides as Supreme Court Ruling Approaches (James Lovick)
The pound continues its very gradual slide lower against the Euro in the first week of this year. GBP EUR is under pressure as we now inch closer to 31st March, the deadline that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stated she will invoke Article 50, the mechanism required to pull Britain out of the European Union. The Supreme Court Ruling which may arrive as soon as next week is also going to be a huge driver for GBP EUR and will in my view create new direction. Those clients who have a requirement to either buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to make contact to look at the options available to you and how to try and maximise on the exchange rates as the better levels become available.
Despite a very positive week for the UK with very strong numbers for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors as per the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) the pound has not seen any real boost higher as the uncertainties surround Brexit keeps pressure on sterling.
European retail sales numbers and consumer confidence figures are released this morning which should give some clues as to the outlook on the high street in the Eurozone and could impact on Euro exchange rates.
Mrs May said the UK would have control of its borders and the best possible trade deal with the EU. She didn't commit to maintaining "single market access", and she suggested that people who thought the country could keep "bits of EU membership" were missing the point that it "would be leaving".
This failure to commit to the single market will be music to the ears of Brexiteers. To Remainers it will raise concerns that a "hard Brexit" could be on the offing.
But, as with so much in the Brexit debate, clarity over the UK's position in the negotiations, due to start very soon, remains lacking.
It remains to be seen whether UK can stay in single market after exit
The Junior Brexit minister David Jones in being quizzed by a committee
Signs that the UK is still looking at the 'have your cake and eat it' scenario.
The Guardian: Brexit Could Cost London Over 230,000 Finance Jobs
It is estimated that Brexit could trigger over than 230,000 job losses in Britain’s financial services sector if euro clearing shifts to continental Europe and full access to the bloc’s single market is lost, according to top industry officials.
London is currently the world’s biggest hub for clearing euro-denominated financial contracts but some continental policymakers want this shifted to the eurozone after the Brexit.
Clearing
As per a report in The Guardian, Xavier Rolet, Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange, said that the Brexit could have an impact on “unimaginably large” contracts which are cleared through the City and which might need to be transferred to the 27 remaining EU member states or other financial centres.
Rolet has called for a five-year transition period for Britain to leave the EU, but the triggering of Article 50 in March could prompt banks to implement contingency plans to shift business out of London.
The result of the referendum has prompted several European centres to pitch for the business cleared mainly through the London Clearing House which is operated by the LSE.
As reported by Finance Magnates last September, London’s Investment banks were reported to be planning for the loss of euro clearing after the Brexit with France or Germany expected to succeed London over the clearing of $570 billion worth of euro derivatives after the UK.
Even ahead of the 23 June referendum HSBC said that it could move 1,000 roles to Paris in a preemptive move before the Brexit was completed. Douglas Flint, HSBC’s chairman said that banks without operations elsewhere in the EU will likely trigger migration plans immediately after Brexit talks begin in March, estimating that “tens of thousands” of jobs are linked to EU “passporting” rights.
Banks currently have passporting rights, allowing them to operate across the eurozone from a base in Britain which they could lose after Brexit.
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UK may have to delay triggering article 50 - Independent
More good news for Theresa May
The UK's Independent paper is reporting that the triggering of article 50 could be delayed for months due to Northern Ireland's political upheaval.
They say that if May tries to trigger art50 before the Northern Irish Assembly is in place, there could be grounds for Northern Ireland to declare the move illegal as May will need approval from the assembly.
The assembly is heading for snap elections which could take at least two months.
There's a lot of 'if's', 'and's' and 'maybe's' to the story so it may not be as inflammatory as is being written but it is further uncertainty in the Brexit process.
The full story from the Indy is here.