Brexit - The Economist 2017 prediction: "Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"
A Brexit view from The Economist
They reckon that "By the end of 2017 Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"
Britain is now in unknown, volatile territory
When
she triggers Article 50, Mrs May will begin a two-year countdown to
Brexit. The first couple of months will bring bureaucratic
throat-clearing (the European Commission will lead the talks, with the
European Council breathing down its neck). In the run-up to France's
presidential election, in April and May, mainstream French politicians
will talk tough about Brexit to counter Marine Le Pen, the right-wing
populist who wants her country to hold its own referendum on leaving the
EU. Shortly afterwards German politics will turn inwards ahead of a
parliamentary election in September, probably re-engaging in earnest
with Brexit only in November, once a new coalition has emerged in
Berlin.
I am not totally convined that Brexit will happen in the end. There are a lot of potential things that could stop this happening. The main problem now is the uncertainty. This is likely to continue for a long time yet.
Germany’s Slowing Economy Highlights Need for “Comprehensive” Post-Brexit Trade Deal With UK
Germany’s growth engine slowed more than expected in the third
quarter, as exports fell in the wake of the United Kingdom’s decision to
leave the European Union (EU). According to one German official, the
slowdown hastens the need to reach a new post-Brexit trade agreement
with London.
Europe’s largest economy expanded just 0.2% in the third quarter,
halving the previous quarter’s growth rate, the Federal Statistics
Office reported last week. A median estimate of economists called for
0.3% growth. Exports detracted from growth, while household and state
spending increased further.
While the German economy is expected to end the year on a high note,
some are worried about the country’s trade outlook in the wake of
Brexit. Ilse Aigner, Germany’s economy minister, recently said that
Brexit poses a “high risk” to Germany, seeing as how the UK is one of
Bavaria’s “most important trading partners.”
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently indicated she was
willing to compromise on the issue of mobility following the UK’s
referendum. Free movement is a central tenant of pan-European
integration, one that the UK government opposes in the wake of Brexit.
The UK government must invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty before
beginning a new round of trade talks with Brussels. British Prime
Minister Theresa May has indicated she intends to notify Brussels of her
intent to leave the EU by the end of March.
Another legal challenge regarding Brexit on its way
BBC reporting 28 Nov 2016
The BBC has learned that the UK govt is facing a legal
battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has
left the EU,
Lawyers say uncertainty over the
UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped
from taking Britain out of the single market.
They will argue the
UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and
Parliament should decide, but the government said EEA membership ends
when the UK leaves the EU.
Lawyers expect there to be a legal challenge to decide whether it is
up to Parliament or government to make the decision to take the UK out
of the single market.
If the courts back this assessment and give
Parliament the final say over EEA membership, then MPs could vote to
ensure that Britain stays in the single market until a long-term trading
relationship with the EU has been agreed.
The EEA was set up in the 1990s to extend the single market to non-EU members like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.All
EU member states are in the European Economic Area and it had been
assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the
EEA as well.
But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would
not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by
triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is
focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or
because it is a member of the EU.
UK Supreme Court to begin its deliberations on Brexit today
The UK government's appeal against the High Court ruling begins today 5 Dec
We posted on the original 3 Nov decision here and now the highest court in the land will begin a landmark legal hearing into whether
Parliament's consent is required before official Brexit negotiations
can begin.
The High Court ruled that rights
conferred by Parliament when it passed the 1972 European Communities Act
- which paved the way for the UK to join the then European Economic
Community - were likely to be affected by Brexit.
As a result, it concluded, any process leading to the potential withdrawal of rights could only be determined by Parliament.
Here's the key points:
The case is about whether the government needs Parliament to trigger the process for the UK to leave the EU
The government argues it can start the
Article 50 process using "prerogative powers", a remnant of the era of
all-powerful kings and queens
Justices will be ruling on who has the legal power to change the rights of British citizens
It's worth noting though that this petition is not
designed to prevent Brexit but that Parliament should be allowed to have
its say. Indeed Gina Miller leading the campaign last week conceded on
BBC Radio that Brexit was still very likely to go ahead.
Govt ministers will have a number of options if they lose the appeal, but it
has been reported that a 16-word bill is being prepared which could be
fast-tracked though Parliament, asking MPs and peers "to give
permission" to the government to trigger Article 50 in time to meet the
March deadline.
And yes folks, you can watch the whole thing live here
but don't forget that this part of the process is scheduled to last a
few days ( 5 to 8 Dec. Start times: 5 Dec - 11:00 GMT 6 Dec - 10:15 7
Dec - 10:30 8 Dec - 10:15) and a decision not due until January.
However,
given the market's penchant for dancing on hot coals right now we might
expect some reaction to headlines/comments in the meantime.
In a turnaround UK PM May has agreed to a vote on triggering Article 50 7 Dec
The news came out last night so not new but I'm just highlighting for good order and its potential impact on GBP pairs.
PM Theresa May has agreed to publish her plan for leaving
the EU in order to avoid a possible Tory rebellion and defeat in the
Commons.The government hopes this will persuade MPs to support its schedule for starting the process of leaving the EU.
Labour - which initiated the debate - said it would back the timetable but had wanted scrutiny of Brexit plans. Labour's
shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer put forward a motion to be debated
on Wednesday, with support from some on the Conservative back benches.
The
party wanted to force the government to reveal its negotiating stance
before formal talks with EU leaders get under way. Downing
Street tabled an amendment agreeing to outline its strategy, in
exchange for MP's approval of the government's timetable for triggering
Article 50.
The
reorganization comes amid an investigation by the EU into what it says
are sweetheart tax deals that smaller states in the bloc offer to
multinational companies to lure jobs and investment.
Opponents to Britain leaving the European Union will launch a fresh
legal action this week, which could further hamper Prime Minister
Theresa May's Brexit plans, The Sunday Times reported.
The
newspaper said campaigners will write to the UK government on Monday
saying they are taking it to the High Court in an effort to keep Britain
in the single market.
It said the claimants will seek a judicial
review in an attempt to give lawmakers a new power of veto over the
terms on which Britain leaves the EU.
They argue the government
“has no mandate” to withdraw from the single market because it was not
on the referendum ballot paper on June 23 and was not part of the ruling
Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2015 general election.
May
has said she wants to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by
the end of March, kicking off up to two years of exit negotiations.
However
the High Court ruled last month that Article 50 cannot be triggered
without parliament's assent. That ruling is being challenged by the
government in Britain's Supreme Court.
The Sunday Times said the
new court case hinges on whether the government would also have to
trigger another legal measure — Article 127 of the European Economic
Area agreement — in order to quit the single market.
It said
ministers argue Britain automatically exits the single market when it
quits the EU. But, it said if the claimants win the new case, the
government would have to gain the approval of lawmakers.
UK's May tells EU leaders she wants an early Brexit deal
UK PM May has been attending the European Council summit in Brussels
BBC reporting.
The
headline didn't come from May herself, who left the meeting without
making comment, but Irish PM Enda Kenny revealed what Mrs May had told
them, saying:
"She
would like to have the question of UK citizens living in Europe and
European citizens living in the UK dealt with in the early part of
discussions that take place."
Kenny also said the Irish
Republic would not sign a bilateral deal with the UK and the UK had to
agree its future relationship with the EU first.
After Mrs May's departure, the 27 other EU leaders met informally for
20 minutes to discuss their approach to Brexit negotiations.
They
agreed that European Commission official Michel Barnier will lead talks
for the EU - although MEPs are said to want a greater say.
European
Council president Donald Tusk said the "short, informal meeting" had:
"reconfirmed our principles, meaning the indivisibility of the four
freedoms, the balance of rights and obligations and the rule 'no
negotiations without notification'".
European Parliament president Martin Schulz has warned that negotiations could be vetoed if MEPs are not fully involved.
Brexit - The Economist 2017 prediction: "Theresa May will have achieved little of substance"
A Brexit view from The Economist
Germany’s Slowing Economy Highlights Need for “Comprehensive” Post-Brexit Trade Deal With UK
Germany’s growth engine slowed more than expected in the third quarter, as exports fell in the wake of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU). According to one German official, the slowdown hastens the need to reach a new post-Brexit trade agreement with London.
Europe’s largest economy expanded just 0.2% in the third quarter, halving the previous quarter’s growth rate, the Federal Statistics Office reported last week. A median estimate of economists called for 0.3% growth. Exports detracted from growth, while household and state spending increased further.
While the German economy is expected to end the year on a high note, some are worried about the country’s trade outlook in the wake of Brexit. Ilse Aigner, Germany’s economy minister, recently said that Brexit poses a “high risk” to Germany, seeing as how the UK is one of Bavaria’s “most important trading partners.”
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently indicated she was willing to compromise on the issue of mobility following the UK’s referendum. Free movement is a central tenant of pan-European integration, one that the UK government opposes in the wake of Brexit.
The UK government must invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty before beginning a new round of trade talks with Brussels. British Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated she intends to notify Brussels of her intent to leave the EU by the end of March.
read more
Another legal challenge regarding Brexit on its way
BBC reporting 28 Nov 2016
The BBC has learned that the UK govt is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU,
Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.
They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide, but the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU.
Lawyers expect there to be a legal challenge to decide whether it is up to Parliament or government to make the decision to take the UK out of the single market.
If the courts back this assessment and give Parliament the final say over EEA membership, then MPs could vote to ensure that Britain stays in the single market until a long-term trading relationship with the EU has been agreed.
The EEA was set up in the 1990s to extend the single market to non-EU members like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.All EU member states are in the European Economic Area and it had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.
But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement. The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.
More from the Beeb here
UK Supreme Court to begin its deliberations on Brexit today
The UK government's appeal against the High Court ruling begins today 5 Dec
We posted on the original 3 Nov decision here and now the highest court in the land will begin a landmark legal hearing into whether Parliament's consent is required before official Brexit negotiations can begin.
The High Court ruled that rights conferred by Parliament when it passed the 1972 European Communities Act - which paved the way for the UK to join the then European Economic Community - were likely to be affected by Brexit.
As a result, it concluded, any process leading to the potential withdrawal of rights could only be determined by Parliament.
Here's the key points:
It's worth noting though that this petition is not designed to prevent Brexit but that Parliament should be allowed to have its say. Indeed Gina Miller leading the campaign last week conceded on BBC Radio that Brexit was still very likely to go ahead.
Govt ministers will have a number of options if they lose the appeal, but it has been reported that a 16-word bill is being prepared which could be fast-tracked though Parliament, asking MPs and peers "to give permission" to the government to trigger Article 50 in time to meet the March deadline.
And yes folks, you can watch the whole thing live here but don't forget that this part of the process is scheduled to last a few days ( 5 to 8 Dec. Start times: 5 Dec - 11:00 GMT 6 Dec - 10:15 7 Dec - 10:30 8 Dec - 10:15) and a decision not due until January.
However, given the market's penchant for dancing on hot coals right now we might expect some reaction to headlines/comments in the meantime.
Full back story from the Beeb here
UK MPs to vote on Article 50 timetable today
In a turnaround UK PM May has agreed to a vote on triggering Article 50 7 Dec
The news came out last night so not new but I'm just highlighting for good order and its potential impact on GBP pairs.
PM Theresa May has agreed to publish her plan for leaving the EU in order to avoid a possible Tory rebellion and defeat in the Commons.The government hopes this will persuade MPs to support its schedule for starting the process of leaving the EU.
Labour - which initiated the debate - said it would back the timetable but had wanted scrutiny of Brexit plans. Labour's shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer put forward a motion to be debated on Wednesday, with support from some on the Conservative back benches.
The party wanted to force the government to reveal its negotiating stance before formal talks with EU leaders get under way. Downing Street tabled an amendment agreeing to outline its strategy, in exchange for MP's approval of the government's timetable for triggering Article 50.
source
What Brexit? McDonalds to move its international tax base to the UK
Maccas is moving its international tax base to the United Kingdom from Luxembourg
UK government facing new Brexit court case
Opponents to Britain leaving the European Union will launch a fresh legal action this week, which could further hamper Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plans, The Sunday Times reported.
The newspaper said campaigners will write to the UK government on Monday saying they are taking it to the High Court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market.
It said the claimants will seek a judicial review in an attempt to give lawmakers a new power of veto over the terms on which Britain leaves the EU.
They argue the government “has no mandate” to withdraw from the single market because it was not on the referendum ballot paper on June 23 and was not part of the ruling Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2015 general election.
May has said she wants to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty by the end of March, kicking off up to two years of exit negotiations.
However the High Court ruled last month that Article 50 cannot be triggered without parliament's assent. That ruling is being challenged by the government in Britain's Supreme Court.
The Sunday Times said the new court case hinges on whether the government would also have to trigger another legal measure — Article 127 of the European Economic Area agreement — in order to quit the single market.
It said ministers argue Britain automatically exits the single market when it quits the EU. But, it said if the claimants win the new case, the government would have to gain the approval of lawmakers.
read more
Brexit Summarized (In A 10 Second Clip From The EU Summit Today)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/brexit-summarized-10-second-clip-eu-summit-today
UK's May tells EU leaders she wants an early Brexit deal
UK PM May has been attending the European Council summit in Brussels
BBC reporting.
The headline didn't come from May herself, who left the meeting without making comment, but Irish PM Enda Kenny revealed what Mrs May had told them, saying:
"She would like to have the question of UK citizens living in Europe and European citizens living in the UK dealt with in the early part of discussions that take place."
Kenny also said the Irish Republic would not sign a bilateral deal with the UK and the UK had to agree its future relationship with the EU first.
After Mrs May's departure, the 27 other EU leaders met informally for 20 minutes to discuss their approach to Brexit negotiations.
They agreed that European Commission official Michel Barnier will lead talks for the EU - although MEPs are said to want a greater say.
European Council president Donald Tusk said the "short, informal meeting" had:
"reconfirmed our principles, meaning the indivisibility of the four freedoms, the balance of rights and obligations and the rule 'no negotiations without notification'".
European Parliament president Martin Schulz has warned that negotiations could be vetoed if MEPs are not fully involved.
The Beeb has more here