Current short term Forecast - page 9

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

EUR traded in a range of less than 50 pips last Friday, between 1.1191 and 1.1240. The outlook is still clearly neutral and we continue to expect this pair to trade sideways within a 1.1120/1.1290 range for now.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Extension likely limited to 1.2865.

GBP staged a rapid and abrupt turnaround last Friday and dropped below the revised target of 1.2930 (low of 1.2915). While the outlook is still viewed as bearish, any further extension is likely limited to the next major support at 1.2865 (low in August). That said, the current bearish phase is intact until 1.3060 is taken out.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 0.7675.

As highlighted in the Chart of the Day update last Friday, the undertone for AUD is positive but only a clear break above 0.7675 would indicate the start of a bullish phase. For now, as long as 0.7560 is intact, the prospect of a move above 0.7675 still appears to be quite good.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 0.7200.

The rapid and sharp drop in NZD last Friday has clearly resulted in a weak undertone. However, we prefer to see a daily closing below 0.7200 before turning bearish (with an immediate target of 0.7135/40). This appears to be a likely scenario unless this pair can move and stay above 0.7275 within these 1 to 2 days.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Extremely oversold but room for extension to 99.50/55.

The current movement is deemed as a short-term consolidation phase that may last for another couple of days. As long as 101.50 is not taken out, another leg lower towards the major 99.50 support cannot be ruled out just yet. That said, based on the oversold conditions, a clear break below this level seems unlikely.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

While the undertone for EUR has improved with the reasonably strong daily closing yesterday, it is premature to expect a sustained up-move. 1.1290 is still acting as strong resistance and even if there is a break above level, EUR is expected to face another solid resistance near 1.1325. That said, for the next few days, the positive undertone would stay intact unless there is a move back below 1.1180.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Extension likely limited to 1.2865.

We indicated yesterday that while the outlook for GBP is still bearish, any further weakness is likely limited to the next major support at 1.2865 (the low in August). That said, only a move above 1.3060 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 0.7675. [No change in view]

As highlighted in the Chart of the Day update last Friday, the undertone for AUD is positive but only a clear break above 0.7675 would indicate the start of a bullish phase. For now, as long as 0.7560 is intact, the prospect of a move above 0.7675 still appears to be quite good.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7200/0.7375 range.

The sharp drop from last Friday appears to have stabilized and the risk of a sustained move below the key 0.7200 support has diminished. NZD has likely moved back into a sideway trading range, likely between 0.7200 and 0.7375. Looking further ahead, the downside seems to be more vulnerable.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Extremely oversold but room for extension to 99.50/55.

We continue to hold a bearish USD view and expect further extension to 99.50/55 despite the current severely oversold conditions. Only a move back above 101.50 would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

As highlighted yesterday, despite the improvement in shortterm outlook, it is premature to expect a sustained up-move in EUR. The rapid decline from the Monday’s high of 1.1278 reinforces our current neutral view and we continue to expect sideway trading from here, likely within a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Extension likely limited to 1.2865.

GBP closed on a strong note yesterday and while the outlook is still deemed as bearish, the odds for the current bearish phase to extend further to 1.2865 have diminished considerably. Unless this pair can move and stay below 1.2975 within these 1 to 2 days, a breach of the stop-loss at 1.3060 would not be surprising.

AUD/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: Target 0.7740.

The undertone for AUD is positive but only a clear break above 0.7675 would indicate the start of a bullish phase. While the daily closing is not as strong as preferred, the price action suggests a valid ‘break’ and from here, we are targeting a move to 0.7740 followed closely by the August’s peak of 0.7760.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7200/0.7375 range.

NZD rose to a high of 0.7330 yesterday before easing off quickly. The up-move appears to be part of sideway trading range and not the start of a sustained rally. In other words, there is no change to our current neutral view and we continue to expect 0.7200/0.7375 range for now.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Extremely oversold but room for extension to 99.50/55.

The strong 100.00/05 support continues to hold and downward momentum is waning after the sideway consolidation over the past few days. That said, as long as 101.50 is not taken out, another leg lower to 99.50 cannot be ruled out just yet even though the odds would continue to diminish with a prolonged consolidation above 100.00/05.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

The neutral phase in EUR that started last Friday is still clearly intact. At this stage, there is no pre-indication that this pair is about to break out of the expected sideway trading range of 1.1120/1.1290.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Increasing risk of a short-term low.

The bearish phase that started about two weeks ago appears to be close to completion. Unless there is a sustained move back below 1.2980 by end of the day, a break above 1.3060 would not be surprising. A move above 1.3060 would indicate that GBP has moved into a neutral consolidation phase, likely within a 1.2930/1.3160 range.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Target 0.7740. 

We turned bullish AUD yesterday and the current price action bodes well for our bullish view. The immediate target is at 0.7740 followed closely by the August’s peak of 0.7760. The levels between 0.7740 and 0.7760 are expected to offer stiff resistances but a break above this zone could lead to acceleration higher towards the year’s high at 0.7836. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7605 for now but on a shorter-term note, 0.7645 is already a very solid support

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7200/0.7375 range.

NZD dropped to a low of 0.7234 but the down-move was quickly reversed. The choppy movement has resulted in a mixed outlook and at this stage, it is unlikely that this pair is about to break out of the expected sideway trading range of 0.7200/0.7375.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Increasing risk of a short-term low.

As highlighted yesterday, a prolonged consolidation above 100.00/05 would decrease the odds for further USD weakness. The short-term USD strength is more resilient than expected and unless USD can move and stay below 100.40 by end of the day, a break above 101.50 would not be surprising (indicating the start of a broader consolidation phase).

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range. [No change in view]

The neutral phase in EUR that started last Friday is still clearly intact. At this stage, there is no pre-indication that this pair is about to break out of the expected sideway trading range of 1.1120/1.1290.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Lower odds for further GBP decline.

After coming to within one pip of our stop-loss at 1.3060 (high of 1.3059 yesterday), GBP dropped sharply to current level of 1.2965. While the bearish phase is still intact, downward momentum has been dented and the odds for further weakness to 1.2865 are not very high (1.2915 is already a strong short-term support). 

AUD/USD: Bullish: Increased downside risk.

AUD registered a ‘bearish outside day’ and this does not bode well for our bullish view. However, confirmation is only upon a break of 0.7605. From here, AUD has to move and stay above 0.7670 or the downside risk would continue to increase.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7200/0.7375 range.

The choppy swings over the last few days reinforce our current neutral view on NZD. Indicators are generally mixed and from here, we continue to expect choppy trading within a broad 0.7200/0.7375 range. Looking further ahead, the current consolidation is more likely to be resolved to the downside.

USD/JPY: Shift from bearish to neutral: In a 100.00/102.00 range.

The move back above 101.50 has shifted the bearish outlook for USD to neutral. A short-term low is likely in place and the current movement is viewed as the start of consolidation phase, likely within a broad 100.00/102.00 range.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

Most indicators are flat and there is no change to the current neutral view for this pair. Further directionless trade is expected, likely within a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next key support at 1.2795/00.

While we continue to hold a bearish view on GBP, the ease of which the major 1.2865 support was taken out yesterday was unexpected. The next level to focus on is at the 1.2795/00 low seen post-Brexit. A clear break below this level would shift the focus to 1.2700. 

AUD/USD: Neutral: Shift to bullish only if daily closing above 0.7710.

AUD dipped to a low 0.7588 last Friday but has since recovered strongly. However, only a daily closing above the recent 0.7710 high would indicate that AUD has started on a sustained up-mov

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7200/0.7375 range.

There is no change to the current neutral view on NZD. We continue to expect this pair to trade listlessly within a broad 0.7200/0.7375 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 102.30.

The undertone for USD has improved considerably and from here, a daily closing above 102.30 would indicate the start of a bullish phase (with an immediate target of 102.85). This appears to be a likely scenario as long as the strong 101.15/20 support is intact.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

Despite the sudden burst in volatility, EUR closed largely unchanged yesterday. The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still intact and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1120/1.1290 sideway consolidation range would indicate the start of a sustained directional move. Interestingly, the 207 pips range for September (between 1.1119 and 1.1326) is the second narrowest monthly range on record (record was in June 2014 with a range of 194 pips). According to a Bloomberg report, the 3Q quarterly range is the narrowest on record.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.2620.

GBP continues to surprise us as the post-Brexit low of 1.2795/00 was easily taken out. There are no signs that the current bearish phase is about to end soon and further weakness to 1.2620 seems likely, even though the pace of any decline would likely be slower

AUD/USD: Neutral: Shift to bullish only if daily closing above 0.7710.

While the sharp pull-back yesterday has diminished the odds for a sustained AUD strength, the undertone is still positive and a clear break above 0.7710 could not be ruled out just yet. Only a move back below 0.7575/80 would indicate that AUD has lapsed back into a sideway consolidation range.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

NZD broke below the low end of our expected sideway consolidation range of 0.7200/0.7375 and this coupled with the weak daily closing suggests that further NZD weakness is likely in the coming days. That said, the decline appears to be ‘too fast and too much’ and at this stage, we expect the downside risk to be limited to 0.7110. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 0.7260.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 103.35 followed by 104.30.

We highlighted yesterday that a daily closing above 102.30 would shift the outlook for USD to bullish. The up-move was more aggressive than expected as USD surged strongly to a high of 102.96. While the rally appears to be running ahead of itself, further USD strength still seems likely and from here, the next level to aim for is at 103.35 followed by the early September high of 104.30.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.1120/1.1290 range.

EUR spent another day going nowhere and at this stage, there is no pre-indication that the current neutral phase is about to end soon. In other words, the expected sideway trading range of 1.1120/1.1290 that was first highlighted about 2 weeks ago is still intact.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.2620.

GBP touched a fresh low of 1.2686 yesterday before rebounding quickly. As highlighted yesterday, while the outlook for this pair is still deemed as bearish, the pace of any further decline is expected to be slower. The next level to focus on is at 1.2620.

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

The recent build-up in upward momentum fizzled out quickly and the odds for a clear break above the major 0.7710 resistance have diminished considerably. AUD has likely slipped back into a consolidation phase and this pair is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

The bearish phase that started yesterday is still intact and from here, we continue to expect a move lower to 0.7110. As mentioned yesterday, the recent decline appears to be overextended and at this stage, any further weakness is likely limited to 0.7110. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7260 but 0.7205 is already a strong short-term resistance.

USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.30.

The shift to a bullish stance yesterday was timely as USD accelerated higher and the immediate target of 103.35 was quickly exceeded (high of 103.66). The next level to focus on is the early September high of 104.30

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 1.1120.

The sharp drop yesterday is gaining momentum rapidly and a daily closing below 1.1120 would indicate that the 2-week neutral consolidation phase has ended (and the start of a bearish phase). This appears to be a likely scenario unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1210 within these 1 to 2 days.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.1500

GBP inexplicably plunged below 1.2000 during early Tokyo hours earlier. The outsized drop took out several major supports and the decline that started since mid-September is clearly not over. From here, a move back above yesterday’s NY closing of 1.2610 seems unlikely but in view of the dramatic drop earlier, it is also unlikely that we would see a ‘straight line’ down to the next support at 1.1500. In other words, volatility is expected to remain at elevated level but as long as 1.2610 is not taken out, the pressure is still on the downside

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

There is no change to the current neutral view on AUD but downward momentum has picked up with the weak daily closing yesterday. That said, we continue to hold the view that the current movement is part of a broader consolidation phase within a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

The 0.7110 target that was first highlighted on Wednesday appears to be within reach. As mentioned previously, this is a strong support and at this stage, a clear break below this level seems unlikely. That said, only a move back above 0.7205  would indicate that a shortterm low is in place

USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.30.

The 104.30 target appears to be within striking distance and in the event of a clear break of this level, the next focus would be on 105.00. Overall, the bullish USD phase that started on Wednesday (05/10/16) is intact.

[thenews]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 1.1120.

The sharp drop yesterday is gaining momentum rapidly and a daily closing below 1.1120 would indicate that the 2-week neutral consolidation phase has ended (and the start of a bearish phase). This appears to be a likely scenario unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1210 within these 1 to 2 days.

GBP/USD: Bearish: Next support at 1.1500

GBP inexplicably plunged below 1.2000 during early Tokyo hours earlier. The outsized drop took out several major supports and the decline that started since mid-September is clearly not over. From here, a move back above yesterday’s NY closing of 1.2610 seems unlikely but in view of the dramatic drop earlier, it is also unlikely that we would see a ‘straight line’ down to the next support at 1.1500. In other words, volatility is expected to remain at elevated level but as long as 1.2610 is not taken out, the pressure is still on the downside

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

There is no change to the current neutral view on AUD but downward momentum has picked up with the weak daily closing yesterday. That said, we continue to hold the view that the current movement is part of a broader consolidation phase within a 0.7750/0.7710 range.

NZD/USD: Bearish: Downside limited to 0.7110 for now.

The 0.7110 target that was first highlighted on Wednesday appears to be within reach. As mentioned previously, this is a strong support and at this stage, a clear break below this level seems unlikely. That said, only a move back above 0.7205  would indicate that a shortterm low is in place

USD/JPY: Bullish: Next target at 104.30.

The 104.30 target appears to be within striking distance and in the event of a clear break of this level, the next focus would be on 105.00. Overall, the bullish USD phase that started on Wednesday (05/10/16) is intact.