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September 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash -8.20 vs -8.20 exp
September 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash report 22 September 2016
Eurozone September Consumer Confidence Improves Slightly
The flash reading for Eurozone consumer confidence improved slightly to -8.2 for September from 8.5 in August, while there was a stronger recovery to -6.4 from -7.7 for the EU as a whole.
Consumer confidence remains above the long-term average, although this is distorted by the very weak readings seen during the 2008/09 financial crash when there was a low close to -35. Confidence also remains above the levels seen late in the first quarter of 2016, but below the recent peak at -4 seen in the second quarter of 2015. The index has never been in positive territory since its inception in 2005.
Given recent tends in employment and a very accommodative policy by the ECB, there will be further concerns that sentiment should be at stronger levels.
There will be further concerns surrounding weak earnings growth, especially as wage growth decelerated for the second quarter, and an underlying lack of confidence in the Eurozone outlook. There will also be speculation that political concerns are having a negative impact, although there is no evidence that the UK referendum has had a significant negative effect on confidence or spending levels.
Overall, readings stronger than -5 will be needed to boost optimism in a stronger overall spending environment and a shift to more robust growth conditions.
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Even a Mario Draghi appearance will be pushed to the back pages today due to oil news
The ECB head speaks to European parliament from 14.00GMT
Draghi takes his quarterly trip to European parliament today to update the bozos on the state of monetary policy and affairs.
It's usually a dull as dishwater event where he reads the last ECB governing council statement as his testimony, then gets moaned at a lot by various MEPs.
The committee meeting itself starts about an hour earlier before Draghi goes in.
August German Import Prices Decline 0.2%
German import prices fell 0.2% in August with an annual decline of 2.6% compared with an annual decline of 3.8% in the year to July and 4.6% in the 12 months to June.
Energy prices rose 0.1% on the month with the annual decline slowing to 11.7%. Excluding energy prices, there was also a 0.2% monthly decline with prices falling 1.5% over the year and the underlying weakness will tend to maintain downward pressure on wider inflation.
There was also a decline in export prices of 0.1% for the month with a decline of 0.9% over the year from a 1.2% decline previously and this compares to a 0.8% increase in the year to August 2015.
Weakness in energy prices has been a key component of downward pressure on import prices over the past two years. There will be some relief that short-term pressures from energy have eased, but this will tend to be offset by concerns that underlying prices fell both on the month and over the year.
The data overall emphasises that inflationary pressures from trade remain weak at best, especially with export prices also falling. Renewed Sterling weakness against the Euro will tend to put further downward pressure on export prices as German companies look to maintain competitiveness in the UK market.
The latest German consumer inflation data will be watched closely on Thursday for further evidence on underlying inflation trends.
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September German GfK Consumer Confidence Retreats From 15-month High
The German GfK consumer confidence edged lower in September with an expected reading of 10.0 for October from 10.2 the previous month, which will maintain underlying doubts surrounding the overall growth outlook.
The economic expectations index declined to 6.8 from 8.6 the previous month and this was the third consecutive monthly deterioration, although it remained well above the long-term average of zero.
There was a reversal in gains for income expectations seen the previous month with a decline to 52.6 from 61.2, although the index again remained above the long-term average with expectations of rising wages.
There was a similar pattern in the propensity to buy index data with a decline to 53.3 from 57.3 previously with the unfavourable conditions for savings still an important element in supporting spending expectations.
The recent terrorism incidents in Bavaria also appear to have had some impact in discouraging spending due to increased uncertainty and reduced footfall.
There was some evidence in the survey that the UK referendum decision to leave the EU was having a greater impact on confidence. There was also a wider increase in uncertainty and a downgrading of Eurozone GDP forecasts has also had a negative impact.
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September 2016 Eurozone economic sentiment 104.9 vs 103.5 exp
Details of the September 2016 Eurozone economic sentiment and final consumer confidence report 29 September 2016
Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for September: 50.1(expected 50.1, prior 50.0)
This is the private survey PMI
Monday, October 3
Japan is to publish the Tankan surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity.
Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.
German financial markets will also remain closed for a holiday.
The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.
In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to report on manufacturing activity.
Tuesday, October 4
Financial markets in Shanghai are to remain closed for a national holiday.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
Australia is also to publish data on building permits.
The U.K. is to release data on construction activity.
Wednesday, October 5
Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.
Australia is to release figures on retail sales.
The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity.
The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, the ISM report on service sector activity and data on factory orders.
Both the U.S. and Canada are to release trade data.
Thursday, October 6
Shanghai’s financial market will remain closed for a holiday.
Australia is to release trade data.
The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting and German is to report on factory orders.
The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, October 7
Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.
The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves.
The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation and official figures on industrial production.
Canada is to produce its monthly employment report.
The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls.
September Eurozone PMI Manufacturing At 3-Month High
The Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.6 for the September from 51.7 the previous month, in line with expectations and the strongest reading for three months.
The third-quarter reading rose marginally to 52.1 from 51.0 previously.
There was a stronger reading for production, while orders rose at the fastest pace for three months with the increase in orders at the fastest rate since April 2014.
There was an increase in overall employment for the month, while the increase in order backlogs should support production and employment gains over the next few months.
There was an increase in input prices at the strongest pace for over a year, while output prices were again broadly unchanged on the month with no sign of inflationary pressure.
Six of the eight countries were in expansion territory for the month and the French index was at a seven-month high despite failing to recover the 50.0 level.
The data will offer some encouragement over short-term trends, but there will still be concerns over the exposed position in the vent of further external shocks. Vulnerability in France and Italy also remains a key concern, especially as French employment fell again for the month. The weakness in output prices will also be an important concern and remains a major barrier to any increase in the overall Eurozone inflation rate.
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ECB said to near consensus on need to taper QE before it concludes
Eurzone officials cited by BBG
An informal consensus has built at the ECB in the past month that asset buying will need to be tapered.
The euro shot higher on the headlines. The thinking in the market was that the ECB was preparing to change its rules so it could continue buying bond beyond the planned program expiration in March.
Instead, they're talking about tapering in what could be a massive shift that leads to a large euro rally.