Swiss franc news - page 9
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USD/CHF Loses Upside Momentum, Risk Points Lower
USDCHF: The pair printed a rejection to halt its upside offensive and close lower the past week. This price action has created downside risk as we enter a new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9600 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness targeting the 0.9550 level and followed by the 0.9600 level. A cut through here will bring additional weakness towards the 0.9550 level.
Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.9750 level with a breach pushing the pair further towards the 0.9800 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9850 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term on correction.
Switzerland Producer and Import prices Aug mm -0.7% vs -0.5% exp
Latest data now out
Retail Sales July mm -0.1% vs -1.2% prev revised downfrom -0.9%
Softer price data unsurprising but tempered by better retails
The SNB meets on Thursday in Zurich for its latest monetary policy
decision, although no action is expected and no press conference is scheduled.
Preview: What's the Swiss franc trade on the SNB
Credit Agricole previews the Swiss National Bank decision
The SNB decision is at 0730 GMT on Wednesday. Credit Agricole anticipates Swiss franc weakness on hints of more aggressive policy.
"This week's main focus will be on the SNB monetary policy announcement. Given low inflation risk the central bank remains in a position to keep an aggressive monetary policy stance. This is especially true as the overvalued franc is keeping monetary conditions tight, regardless of somewhat more stable growth conditions.
At the same time, however, it must still be considered that an even more aggressive policy stance seems unlikely unless the CHF appreciates more considerably from current levels.
This in turn suggests that external drivers such as global risk sentiment should continue to be the franc's main driver.
From that angle this week's Fed monetary policy announcement should be key. Even if the Fed refrains from tightening monetary policy as soon as this week, they should communicate a higher probability for doing so in October. As such risk sentiment is likely to remain unstable.
If anything we see further CHF downside versus the USD."
source
SNB's Jordan says he has no exchange rate targets
Everyone's fave central banker on the radio talking about EURCHF
We know he and his colleagues speak with forked tongue so we'll take these comments with a pinch/block of salt
"We have no such target. We have a policy that takes consideration of the difficult situation."
Meanwhile USDCHF has indeed found demand into 0.9665 as per the order board and currently stands at 0.9693
USD/CHF: Dollar Weakens as Fed in No Rush to Raise Rates
The Fed left rates unchanged at its Thursday meeting, not a major surprise as the market expected only a 30% chance of a rate increase. Moreover, the FOMC members did not prepare the markets for the lift-off and they did not make any changes to monetary policy.
Leaving rates unchanged would not have been so negative if the Fed had provided a hawkish outlook for the near future, but the exact opposite happened. The so-called dot plot was much more dovish than at the June meeting, with one FOMC member now expecting the federal funds rate (FFR) to be negative till 2016, a big dovish surprise.
Furthermore, 11 participants see the FFR below 0.5% in 2015, up from 7 members in June. The Fed also mentioned international developments, which are likely to cause further disinflationary pressures in the US economy and might restrain economic activity.
The FOMC also lowered their GDP projections for 2016 and 2017. Projections for FFR were also decreased, from 0.6% to 0.4% in 2015, from 1.6% to 1.4% in 2016 and from 2.9% to 2.6% in 2017.
read more
USD/CHF: Buck Remains Slightly Subdued, Turning to Waiting Mode
The greenback was trading flat against the Swiss franc on Tuesday, extending its two-day decline from the six-week high at ₣0.9845 reached on September 25. However, the buck's weakness remained limited as forex markets slowly shifted to the waiting mode ahead of the crucial non-farm payrolls due on Friday.
"Investors are caught between expecting the dollar to rally and being fearful of the volatility in financial markets," Scotiabank chief currencies strategist Shaun Osborne noticed.
On the other hand, the greenback lacked enough strength to spike for a prolonged period above the strong technical resistance of ₣0.98, which managed to hold the USD/CHF pair for over six weeks. Therefore, the quest for parity, previously seen in March, remained challenging.
In the afternoon, the USD/CHF inched 0.01% down to ₣0.9734, trading in a narrow range of approximately 60 pips, with the intraday support at ₣0.9687 seen during the European market hours.
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EUR/CHF: Euro Dormant After CPI in September
The euro remained more or less unchanged against its Swiss counterpart after the release of fresh CPI figures for the euro zone, which saw the region dip back into deflation.
The CPI in the 19-nation bloc slid back into deflationary territory, shedding 0.1% on an annual basis during the ninth month of the year. This follows a 0.2% acceleration seen in August and marks the weakest figure since March. Analysts had projected zero growth in September.
Core CPI - stripped of volatile energy, food, alcohol & tobacco - rose 0.9% during the reported month, measured on a non-seasonally-adjusted and yearly basis.
As the Swiss currency is driven mainly by the EUR/USD pair, the cross could be impacted later in the week by the release of fresh labor data from the US, with non-farm payrolls expected to add 202,000 new workers, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at its multi-year low of 5.1%.
source
USD/CHF: Buck Moves Closer to Intraday High as Lacker Speaks
The greenback modestly leaped against the Swiss franc on Thursday, moving a step closer to the six-week resistance at ₣0.98. However, the buck found one extra bump in the road from dull manufacturing data in the US, which fell to multi-month lows.
Considering the US dollar index, the greenback saw a similar upside barrier as the gauge has failed to significantly jump over the 96.50 resistance since the end of August amid the ongoing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike riddle. Nevertheless, the upcoming weekly highlight in form of non-farm payrolls due on Friday might bring bulls some needed fuel.
"Job growth near or north of forecasts of 203,000 for September could see the dollar test the upper limits of its range," Western Union Business Solutions senior market analyst Joe Manimbo noticed. "Outsized gains could be a thing of the past since the Fed has signaled a go-slow approach to lifting rates from basically zero."
In the afternoon the buck added 0.42% to trade at ₣0.9771 against the franc, while the US dollar index slipped 0.19% to 96.23 points.
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SNB Calls For Weaker CHF; Watch For Momentum Indicator To Turn First - BNPP
Deputy Chairman Fritz Zurbruegg reiterated that the SNB expects the downward trend in CHF to continue overnight, adding that he is convinced that negative interest rates and the SNB's willingness to intervene as required in the FX market will make CHF investments less attractive, notes BNP Paribas.
"We agree with the Chairman’s comments as indicated by our recent upward revision to our yearend EURCHF forecast to 1.12 (from 1.10)," BNPP argues.
"One barrier to near-term CHF depreciation is the still-strong momentum as signalled by our latest FX quant product BNP Paribas FX Momentum. The CHF reading of +30 represents a recent spike (from around zero) in response to equity market malaise. A fall back may be a catalyst for CHF to weaken further," BNPP adds.
EUR/CHF bid helping to underpin the euro
Whenever a big bid hits EUR/CHF, everyone casts an eye towards the Swiss National Bank as they attempt to devalue the franc.
Earlier today SNB officials revealed September foreign exchange reserves. They showed 514.54B francs in reserve, up from 540.03B the month before. It's the fourth consecutive months of gains but often reserves vales are skewed by the value of the underlying currency (CHF in this case).
Interestingly, Swiss franc three month libor slipped to 0.725% from 0.731% today and that's the lowest since Sept 1.
Alone, those are tiny factors so it's tough to see any real evidence the SNB is at work. The better takeaway is that some of the broad euro strength is probably due to EUR/CHF flows and it's probably not be a true reflection of euro demand on other crosses.