Swiss franc news - page 3
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USD/CHF forecast for the week of April 20, 2015
The USD/CHF pair fell during the course of the week, testing the 0.95 handle again. This is an area that has been rather supportive recently, so we believe that this market will more than likely find more support again. On a supportive candle, we would be buyers, but we also recognize that a break down below the 0.94 level would send this market down to the 0.90 level. Currently, we are on the sidelines but we do recognize that this is an area that will have to be paid very close attention to.
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USD/CHF: Dollar Defends ₣0.95, Bulls Need to Wake Up
The dollar was sold-off on currency markets on Wednesday, driven lower mainly by a short squeeze on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs. The dollar-franc, however, found buyers at ₣0.95, which is an essential area for dollar bulls on this pair.
During the midday trading, USD/CHF was seen at ₣0.9560, trading unchanged on the day, although around 50 pips higher from intraday lows.
Market participants now focus on US macro news due later in the session. The US house price index is expected to tick higher to 0.5% from 0.3%, while existing house sales are predicted to jump to 5.03 million, from 4.88 million previously.
Traders are still underpricing the possibility of September's rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is seen on US rate markets. Waking up to this fact might offer further support for the greenback, ignoring the extreme oversold conditions on the EUR/USD pair. A further decline in EUR/USD will be positive news for USD/CHF and the pair should remain well bid in the coming sessions.
The franc can't appreciate further as the Swiss National Bank sees the Swiss currency still overvalued and would like to see the EUR/CHF cross in the ₣1.05 - ₣1.10 area, which leaves USD/CHF trading according to the dollar fundamentals.
"The USD index still does not appear to be in good shape here, failing for a second time into the all-important 100 level and the US data still not inspiring much confidence that Q1’s malaise has been shaken (the bounce in retail sales was lackluster while the Fed’s NY Empire survey joined other regional surveys, falling into contractionary territory). US growth momentum will inevitably recover as one time negatives wash out of the data (ports strike and bad weather) but our best guess is that the snapback may well underwhelm given other negatives holding back activity are more enduring, such as the higher USD and the retrenchment of the energy sector. In short the USD corrective phase has further to run and the DXY might test 96 before all is said and done," analysts at Westpac believe.
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EUR/CHF: Franc Awarded Loser of Day as SNB Acts
The euro strongly advanced against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced an update to its cash deposit policy in the morning. Thereafter the euro rocketed, deleting almost two weeks of losses in just one trading session.
Moreover, the EUR/CHF cross spiked powerfully above the long-term downtrend, which started in the beginning of March and steadily pushed the cross to its three-month low at ₣1.0226 on Monday.
The euro advanced 1.40% against the Swiss franc to trade at ₣1.0397, while the franc lost around 1.40% against the greenback as well, at ₣0.9682.
SNB deposit policy
In the morning, the Swiss National Bank announced that it had cut the number of institutions exempt from negative rates on cash deposits held at the central bank.
The move increased the probability of a further rate cut by the SNB, particularly in the environment of capital inflows to safe-haven Switzerland amid nervousness induced by Greece's ongoing credit issues.
Meanwhile, the Credit Suisse ZEW survey results improved to -23.2 in April, from the release of -37.9 seen previously.
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They are just doing what they always done - SNB works like that since it exists
USD/CHF: Greenback Sinks Amid Poor US data & Greek Hopes
The greenback plummeted against the Swiss franc on Thursday and lost all its gains from the previous session, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) changed its cash deposit policy. Moreover, dull US macro data along with some progress in the Greek drama also hurt the greenback.
"Maybe there is a glimmer of hope the Greek situation may be resolved," said Brown Brothers Harriman global head of currency strategy Marc Chandler.
The USD/CHF cross dived 1.77% to trade at ₣0.9536, falling from a weekly high of 0.9718 seen in the morning, while the US dollar index lost 0.46% to 97.481 points.
The buck was mostly hit at the beginning of the US session, when the housing market brought a disappointing update in the form of sluggish new home sales in March, which plummeted from the seven-year high seen previously.
The fresh release showed a massive drop of 11.4% to 481,000 in March, well below the forecasts of 515,000 units, after an upwardly revised reading of 543,000 in February.
Meanwhile, the Department of labor published its weekly update of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 showing a worse-than-expected reading of 295,000. However, the greenback reacted only modestly, especially as traders are already focused on the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
SNB cash deposit policy
On Wednesday, the SNB announced that it had cut the number of institutions exempt from negative rates on cash deposits held at the central bank.
The move increased the probability of a further rate cut by the SNB, particularly in the environment of capital inflows to safe-haven Switzerland amid nervousness induced by Greece's ongoing credit issues.News about the SNB intervention sent the franc plummeting, with the pair jumping around 200 pips on Wednesday and the EUR/CHF following higher.
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USD/CHF forecast for the week of April 20, 2015
The USD/CHF pair fell during the course of the week, testing the 0.95 handle again. This is an area that has been rather supportive recently, so we believe that this market will more than likely find more support again. On a supportive candle, we would be buyers, but we also recognize that a break down below the 0.94 level would send this market down to the 0.90 level. Currently, we are on the sidelines but we do recognize that this is an area that will have to be paid very close attention to.
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USD/CHF: Dollar Rebounds From Lowest Mark Since Jan After Jobs Data
The US dollar rebounded after the weekly jobless claims posted an upbeat reading, which woke up bullish bets that were muted in the last session when the ADP employment change signaled that the non-farm payrolls may disappoint on the downside.
The greenback gained 0.49% to trade at ₣0.9205 against the Swiss franc on Thursday, recovering after falling to ₣0.9071, the lowest level since January 29, earlier in the day.
In the US, initial jobless claims slightly rose to 265,000 in the week ending May 2, beating the survey of 279,000, from a fifteen-year low 262,000 seen the week before.
The dollar was punched by the ADP employment report from the previous session, which showed employment at private firms across the US climbed 169,000 last month, following a revised 175,000 rise in March, compared to an anticipated 200,000. Back in March, the figure had shown the smallest gain since January 2014 even prior to the revision.
Market participants now eagerly wait for Friday when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 230,000 in April, nearly doubling March's 126,000.
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USD/CHF: Greenback Keeps Rising as SNB & Data Hold Franc Down
The greenback increased against the Swiss franc on Friday, finally finding some ground after its previous weekly drop which sent the USD/CHF cross to a three-month low.
Traders pushed the cross above ₣0.92 amid rebounding non-farm payrolls in April, while Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan clearly repeated his view on the overvalued franc. Moreover, he added that the SNB is ready to take the inevitable steps if the currency requires such action.
"In case there is a necessity to intervene in the foreign exchange market to influence monetary conditions, we will take it," Jordan told a conference.
The buck was trading 0.88% elevated at ₣0.9300 against the Swiss franc, leaving behind its three-month low at ₣0.9064 seen on Thursday.
Key labor data
The long awaited non-farm payrolls figures provided the US dollar with additional boost as the release showed non-farm payrolls rose 223,000 in April, following March's soft downwardly revised 85,000 job additions. Meanwhile, April's update marginally missed an anticipated hike of 228,000 new jobs.
"I definitely think there's a degree of uncertainty as to what this report actually means," EverBank World Markets vice president Mike Meyer noticed. He also added that the downward revision of the already weak March figure was "casting a shadow on this report."
The unemployment rate decreased to 5.4%, in line with expectations, from 5.5% seen previously.
Finally, the closely watched additional labor indicator - average hourly earnings - rose 0.1% and 2.2% when measured on a monthly and annual basis, compared to the gains of 0.2% and 2.1% seen previously. However, both figures missed the survey by 0.1%.
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USD/CHF: The Sky Is Falling
Wednesday's North American trading day kicked off with a bang thanks to some disappointing figures for the US economy. US Retail Sales once again failed to achieve consensus with a 0.0% read on expectations of a 0.3% increase. Not all was dismal with the report though as the previous figure was revised up to 1.1% from 0.9%, making it retroactively match last month’s consensus. The Retail Sales miss shouldn’t really be that big of a surprise though considering it has consistently been one of the most frustrating US data releases. The consumer metric has now failed to live up to expectations on 10 out of the last 13 months, yet despite that perpetual failure, the USD continued to appreciate and the Federal Reserve moved forward with talk of interest rate hikes.
The point here is that we’ve seen this program before. We get a US data miss, the USD gets crushed for a few hours, then the market realizes that the Fed will still raise rates before the end of the year, and the USD gains back at least some of what it lost. The trick is to find where that market wide realization will take place; the point where the Chicken Little’s of the world stop yelling. In the USD/CHF that point may be at a visually pleasing technical level that is fast approaching.
The recent trend in the USD/CHF has been unquestionably lower as traders have had no love lost for the world’s reserve currency, but even in downtrends there are rallies. If the current drop in the USD/CHF continues, support may be found near 0.9135, which lines up with both a Fibonacci based Bullish Gartley pattern, and previous support from last week. In addition, if it were to fall that far, that would equate to about a 150 pip drop from levels experienced just before Retail Sales was released; a significant move in this pair. Considering the support potential and potential exhaustion of the one sided move, the USD/CHF just may find the strength to fight back.
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USD/CHF: Buck Limits Damage on Hopeful Data & Swiss Holiday
The US dollar pared earlier losses against the Swiss franc on Thursday afternoon, moving slightly higher from its low at ₣0.9064 seen last Thursday.
However, the greenback's attempt to halt the recent drop occurred during lower trading volume as the market in Switzerland was close due to a bank holiday, while the US macro calendar brought two contradictory sets of data before the opening bell.
"People are pretty focused on the weak numbers for the US," Foreign Exchange Analytics partner David Gilmore mentioned. "People are increasingly wondering if the Fed is going to be ready to begin raising rates in September."
The USD/CHF cross was seen 0.33% lower at ₣0.9137, climbing from an intraday low at ₣0.9077 hit during the European market hours, while the US dollar index recovered to 93.62 points from its lowest level since January 22 at 93.18 points in the morning.
Taking into account the current data dependent mode of the Federal Reserve, investors closely watched another solid reading of initial jobless claims which came in at 264,000 during the week ending May 9, after a figure of 265,000 seen previously. Moreover, jobless claims remained near the 15-year low hit on April 15 at 262,000.
As for claimants who already receive government support, classed under continuing claims, the figure for the week ending April 25 came in at 2.229 million, the same as last week after the revision.
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