Pound Drops Most in a Year as Scotland Separatists Lead - page 2
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Thats a chart which shows human stupidity if you ask me!
Scottish Vote Could Spark Crisis In The UK
All the headlines are following the referendum vote for Scottish independence on coming on Thursday. The latest poll figures published Friday afternoon show the Yes and No’s tied in a dead heat. This has cause unbelievable problems and stress for the UK government. While the British government denies it is preparing contingency plans for the referendum outcome, signs of the concern attached to the vote grew over the weekend. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he will return early from a gathering of central bankers and finance ministers in Cairns, Australia, so that he can be in London in time for the vote.
The Nationalists insist an independent Scotland would use the pound, with the Bank of England as a lender of last resort to bail out Scottish-based banks if needed. Alex Salmond, First Minister, says that in the event of Westminster refusing a currency union, Scotland will use the pound anyway and refuse to pay any of the UK’s national debts. If Scotland votes to leave the UK it will have voted to leave an EU member state, and will have to go through the complex application process. Any country applying for EU membership has to get unanimous approval from the other countries. Governments such as Spain, which has its own problems with secessionist movements, will have grave concerns. Scotland would probably get in, but only at a high price after years of difficult negotiations. The question is how long and where this leave Scotland would in the meantime no one is sure. The impact on banks and financial services would be disastrous. Once headquarters shift, power and jobs follow. With confusion over the currency, big investors would pull out of Scotland. Under a different currency, those with mortgages would be vulnerable to fluctuations on the foreign-exchange markets.
The official plan is for the Queen to be head of state. Mr Salmond claimed last week that she would be happy to be “Queen of Scots” and he has made queen of englandstrenuous efforts to woo the Royal family, to reassure voters that voting yes does not mean getting rid of the Queen. On the military side things get a bit more hairy. Scotland would be invited to join NATO. Yes is also committed to removing the Trident nuclear deterrent, based on the River Clyde. Troops in a Scottish army would concentrate on humanitarian efforts, while the government in the Rest of the UK would continue to order vessels for the Royal Navy. The Rest of the UK would have to move Trident and there is no way that a government in London would give work to Scottish yards after the Scots had voted to leave.
The GBP is trading at 1.6288 after rallying from last week’s low when it traded near 1.60 as traders got a boost and now believe the likelihood of Scotland and the UK breaking up the union after 300 years of marriage is less likely to happen. A report from a respected financial advisory firm said that investors were already pulling money out of the UK at the fastest pace since the “credit crisis” of 2008. With the battle over independence reaching fever pitch on the final weekend of campaigning, George Osborne, the Chancellor, announced he was withdrawing from a crucial G20 summit next weekend because of the risk that a vote for independence in Thursday’s referendum could plunge the UK economy back into turmoil. A survey by Bloomberg predicted the pound could tumble as much as 10 per cent in the event of a Yes vote.
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Scotland Prepares For Bank Runs; 'Quietly' Sends Millions Of Banknotes North
As the Scotish independence vote draws near and remains too close to call, some analysts are suggesting Plan B for Scotland may be to choose to opportunistically default. This has done nothing to calm concerns of the aftermath of a "yes" vote - despite US asset managers proclaiming it irrelevant. Nowhere is that more clear than, as The Independent reports, Britain’s banks have been quietly moving millions of banknotes north of the border to cope with any surge in demand by Scots to withdraw cash in the event of a Yes vote in Thursday's independence referendum, it has emerged. Bankers stressed there has been no sign yet of any increase in the amount of withdrawals from deposit accounts or ATMs, but the moves have been taking place over the past week or so in order to make sure ATMs do not run out on Friday in the event of a panic reaction to a “yes” vote.
As The Independent reports,
* * *As Bloomberg reports, Salmond May Favor Opportunistic Default
* * *Yet, American investors should not worry for some talking-head yesterday on CNBC proclaimed Scotland irrelevant (maybe he should tell the $30 billion in outflows that)...
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UK Election 2015: Latest poll shows SNP winning 53 of 59 seats in Scotland
Why The SNP Is Poised To Win In Scotland
At first glance, it undoubtedly seems very odd.
Last September, the Scottish National Party (SNP) invited people in Scotland to vote to leave the United Kingdom and become an independent country. The proposition was clearly rejected, with just over 55 percent voting against and fewer than 45 percent in favor.
Yet far from heralding a period of nationalist anguish and introspection, little more than six months later, the SNP is looking forward to the prospect of winning an electoral landslide in the U.K. general election scheduled for May 7. According to the latest polls, the party could win as many as 47 of the 59 Scottish seats in the 650-seat House of Commons.
Moreover, because neither the Conservative nor the Labour Party appears likely to win an overall majority, and because support for the Liberal Democrats has imploded throughout the U.K., the SNP not only could be the third-largest party in the next House of Commons but also could play a decisive role in determining the partisan color of the next government.
How can a party that so recently failed to persuade voters to back its principal raison d’être now be apparently heading for what would be a stunning success — and perhaps significant influence on the U.K.-wide stage?
There are three main parts to the answer. The first is that May’s election is being held under very different rules from the referendum. Second, the question of what Scotland’s constitutional status should be now matters more to voters than it did in the past. And third, the SNP has come to be regarded by many voters as the party keenest on creating a more equal society.
At 45 percent, the average level of support for the SNP in current Scotland-wide polls matches the percentage that the “yes” side won in the referendum. Indeed, it also equals the 45 percent that the SNP won in the election to the devolved Scottish Parliament held in May 2011. The crucial difference is that whereas 45 percent is always insufficient to win a referendum, it can be enough to win a landslide in an election that is held under the first-past-the-post electoral system and in which a multitude of parties are in contention.
However, that still means that we need to explain why the SNP has been able to retain the 45 percent level of support that the “yes” side secured in last year’s referendum. After all, the party has until now performed relatively poorly in elections to the House of Commons. Such elections invite voters to focus on which party is best able to provide effective government for the U.K. as a whole, a position to which, given that Scotland constitutes a relatively small part of the U.K., the SNP can never aspire.
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