GBPUSD news - page 72
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
GBP/USD: Sterling Pushing Higher Ahead of Labor Market Data Sterling was still recouping losses seen after last week's Inflation Report and NFP-induced punch that saw the US dollar propelled to seven month highs. Trading is subdued ahead of the UK's labor data due for release in the early European session.
The pair was seen trading up 0.29% at $1.5164 early in European session, down from the intraday high at $1.5180 reached earlier in Asia.
Sterling is currently correcting the previous week's heavy losses as both the extra dovish Inflation Report from the Bank of England indicating no change in UK's interest rates for at least a year and strong labor market data from the US pushed it to the lowest level since August.
The interest rates divergence is set to drive the markets near term, should the Federal Reserve (Fed) bank move at its December meeting and deliver a long awaited lift-off in rates.
The UK jobless rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.4% in the quarter to September, while jobless claims are seen rising by 1,400 in October, after climbing 4,600 a month before.
Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses are seen rising 2.6% for the quarter to September, measured on a yearly basis, a slowdown from the 2.8% rise before. Including bonuses, earnings are forecast to hike 3.2% after 3% previously.
read more
UK Jobless Rate Falls to 5.3%, Wage Growth Slows The number of people in work in the UK continued its record breaking trend in the quarter to September despite jobless benefit claims rising way above estimates and wages excluding bonuses rising at a slower pace when compared with the previous quarter, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Wednesday.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.3% against expectations of it remaining stable with the number of unemployed people falling by 210,000 compared with the same period last year. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose by 3,300, the highest rise seen since October 2012.
Commenting on today's data ONS statistician Nick Palmer said: “These figures continue the recent strengthening trend in the labor market, with a new record high in the employment rate and the unemployment rate still at its lowest since Spring 2008. Earnings continue to grow, albeit the rate for regular pay has fallen back a little from recent months.”
Wages, excluding bonuses, or regular pay again rose at a disappointing rate of 2.5%, slightly below expectations. Wages including bonuses remained stable at 3% but again failed to meet expectations. The ONS's Richard Clegg said regular pay was affected by a low growth in September, particularly in the private sector where wages slowed month-on-month from 2.9% to 2.1%. Wages within the finance, hotel and retail sectors were particularly weak.
read more
GBP: A Sell On Rallies Vs These 2 Currencies - Credit Agricole The GBP has been capped, regardless of somewhat better than expected labour data. Most importantly, the latest data does not indicate improving wage price developments, which should keep medium-term inflation expectations capped. From that angle we see little scope of central bank members turning less dovish anytime soon.
On the contrary, given intact uncertainty regarding global growth prospects and as the BoE remains cautious regarding a stronger currency’s dampening impact on price developments; we expect investors’ central bank monetary policy expectations to remain strongly capped. As such we do not expect next week’s CPI and retail sales releases to have any sustainable currency impact.
As a result of the above outlined conditions we remain in favour of selling the currency versus both the CHF and the USD. While the USD should benefit from further rising Fed rate expectations, the CHF should benefit from more unstable risk sentiment in the weeks to come.
Tightening monetary conditions as driven by the Fed, rising uncertainty regarding the ECB’s policy stance and intact uncertainty related to Asia should make a case of renewed safe haven demand for the franc.
GBP/USD forecast for the week of November 16, 2015 The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the 1.52 level. However, we recognize that this market has a slight downward tilt to it, and as a result it should continue to go lower over the longer term. We are waiting for some type of resistant candle above in order to start selling, and with this, the market should continue to go towards the 1.49 level over the next several weeks. We have no interest in buying this market, at least not until we get well above the 1.55 handle from a longer-term standpoint.
source
UK data: Rightmove House Price -1.3% m/m UK Rightmove House Prices for November
Not a market mover for the GBP, and, guess what ... GBP unmoved ....
UK CPI October mm +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Latest UK inflation data now out
Core CPI stronger than expected gives pound a lift across the board but softer RPI tempering gains
Negative yy has to be a worry for the BOE still
ONS says upward price pressures for clothing and footwear and a range of recreational goods were offset by downward price pressures for university tuition fees, food, alcohol and tobacco, resulting in no change to the overall rate of inflation.
Full report here
ONS House Price Index 6.1% vs 5.4% exp vs 5.5% prevrevised upfrom 5.2%
ALso outProduce Price Index:
Softer PPI input to be expected given commodity prices and not going to change any time soon
GBPUSD finding offers/res around 1.5200. More in wait at 1.5220. Support/bids now 1.5175-80 and 1.5150
EURGBP still finding demand in the dips
source
November 2015 UK CBI industrial trends orders -11 vs -10 exp Highlights of the November 2015 UK CBI industrial trends data report 19 November 2015
That's the first drop in expected output in 3 years and that will take some of the positivity out of the better October manufacturing PMI data we saw at the start of the month. Exports are still looking down in the dumps
Still, it's better than last month but the chart paints the picture pretty clearly
Not one to rock markets at the best of times either
read more
October 2015 UK PSNB 7.5bn vs 5.3bn exp m/m Details of the October 2015 UK Public sector net borrowing data report 20 November 2015
Government spending was higher than income this month but revenues from income tax and VAT were up 3.4% & 2.0% respectively y/y. Corp taxes fell 1.1%
On the main numbers, it's the worst deficit since 2009. Georgie boy will be facing some stiff questions after this. Most of the borrowing went to cover health, education and defence
Government now owes £1.5tn to the private sector or 80.5% of GDP
source
UK Preview: UK's Q3 Economic Slowdown Seen as Temporary Market estimates point to no surprise in the second estimate of the UK gross domestic product in the third quarter. The Office for National Statics is releasing the GDP data on Friday next week.
The second estimate will include the expenditure data, which are expected to show consumer spending again contributed positively to the quarterly growth, offset by weak trade during the third quarter. On the output side, services are seen as the primary upward driver, while manufacturing and construction are the main offsetting sectors.
In its latest outlook for growth, the UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the economy over the medium term was expected to become more balanced, as improving economic conditions in Europe would lead net trade to offset a moderation in domestic demand growth.
NIESR said a 0.5% slowdown in the third quarter should only be temporary, with a rebound expected in the final quarter of this year. The Bank of England (BoE) expects the economy to accelerate slightly to 0.6% in the fourth quarter.
read more
Moody's May Not Cut UK's Credit Rating In Case of 'Brexit' Speaking to the Sunday Telegraph, Moody's senior vice president and UK's chief analyst Kathrin Muehlbronner said: "Uncertainty alone may not change the rating ... What we care about is economic strength, and it is our view that the economic impact of a 'Brexit' would be negative."
Despite warning about the possible slowdown after the negative result of the EU referendum, due by the end of 2017, Muehlbronner said: "For example, in a scenario where growth falls that doesn’t change some of the fundamentals of the UK. We see it as a very strong, large, diversified and rich economy, with strong institutions."
UK Prime Minister David Cameron promised British voters a referendum on their country's membership in the EU. The plebiscite is due by the end of 2017, but may come as early as next year. The latest opinion polls in Britain suggest a very tight vote on the yes-no plebiscite.
Britain has been demanding reforms within the EU, and warned that not agreeing to some of those reforms could lead to UK's exit from the common bloc.
The four fundamental demands are designed to tackle the protection and fairness of the single European market for the countries outside the euro zone. Boosting competitiveness and exempting Britain from an ever-closer politically supranational union are the other two demands. The fourth is the restriction of EU migrants' access to in-work social benefits.
read more