GBPUSD news - page 100
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Cable Spikes Ahead of GDP Data
Cable jumped during the London session on Friday and was seen rising beyond the $1.32 level, trading 0.3% stronger on the day.
Traders will focus on GDP data during today's session. The second estimate of the UK GDP for the second quarter is expected to stay on 0.6%, while the yearly change is predicted to remain at 2.2%. If numbers meet expectations, there should not be any higher volatility.
"In the UK, we’ve seen a host of better than expected economic data over the past week or so, and while we saw a fairly decent preliminary Q2 GDP number, there is a risk that this might get revised lower, particularly since we did see some evidence of a slowdown in late May and June as the referendum date approached," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK said on Friday.
Later in the day, the US GDP for the second quarter is due. Traders are expecting a downward revision to 1.1% from 1.2% booked in the first estimate. The PCE annualized index will also be published.
More importantly, the Jackson Hole Symposium continues today and investors will focus on every piece of information coming from there, so volatility might be elevated. Thursday did not bring any news and therefore markets stayed calm.
Finally, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to deliver a speech titled "The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, in Jackson Hole. This will most likely be the major driver and might set direction for the markets.
GBP/USD Minimizes Losses Following Yellen’s Speech
Out of the Majors, the Pound Sterling has shown the smallest losses against the Greenback today. Broad-based strength in the Dollar dominated the majors today, as Janet Yellen displayed optimism in the path of rate hikes in her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Janet Yellen opened her speech remarking that the Federal Reserve is nearing its goals of maximum employment and price stability, similar to comments from Fed Fischer at his speech on Sunday. The Fed chair also commented that a case could be built for a rate hike as the unemployment rate remains below 5%, and NFP readings have shown a three-month average of 190,000, while economic activity and the inflation outlook also show improvements.
The futures markets are now pricing in a 61% probability of a rate increase by the end of the year, marking the highest level since the EU referendum.
Despite the increased optimism in the rate hike outlook for the United States, GBP/USD was seen as limiting losses on the day. The pair was last seen at 1.3136 for a loss of 0.40% on the day, while the US Dollar index is showing a gain of 0.81%. The technical outlook indicates that further losses may be in store for the pair following a technical break, but the hesitation in moving lower today has shown some underlying strength in the British Pound.
GBP/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016
The GBP/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the we, but gave back some of the gains towards the end of the session on Friday. With this being the case, looks as if anytime we rally, there will be sellers willing to step into this market. I believe that the 1.35 level continues to be a bit of a “ceiling” in this market, and therefore have no interest in buying at all. In a short-term selling is probably the best way to play the British pound at the moment, at least until the volume comes back into the marketplace from the holiday season
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook August 29-September 2
GBP/USD showed resiliency in the past week, as the British Pound was the only currency among the majors to show gains against the Greenback, despite giving up the bulk of early week gains on Friday.
The pair gapped lower to start out the week on a stronger US Dollar, but made an early week low and posted a steady rally to post a high on Thursday, while several major pairs were seen falling into a range. A declining trendline from June highs served to cap the rally on Thursday, while horizontal support at 1.3172 had kept the pair trading in a range ahead of Yellen’s speech.
Janet Yellen and Fed Vice President Fischer triggered a momentum-driven rally in the Greenback on Friday, as the comments indicated the Fed may act as soon as September in raising their interest rates, and potentially could raise rates twice this year.
Following the comments, the futures markets priced up their probabilities of a near-term rate hike with September odds at 33%, and December probabilities moving up to 59.1%.
The decline in the British Pound was seen as somewhat contained, however, as the pair posted the smallest loss against the Greenback seen among the majors on Friday. Recent data out of the United Kingdom has shown a deviation from the expected shortcoming in the economy following the EU referendum, driving the currency higher.
As GBP/USD posted a small gain for the week, a bearish weekly signal that is seen in all other major pairs is lacking in the currency pair. While cross rates have indicated a bullish signal for the Pound Sterling. On the weekly chart, GBP/JPY has posted a bullish morning star pattern, EUR/GBP printed a bearish evening star, GBP/CHF shows a bullish morning star, and GBP/AUD printed a bullish engulfing candle in the prior week. The Pound has also made weekly gains against the Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, but the gains have not been large enough to qualify as a bullish reversal candlestick pattern.
source
UK Consumer Lending Moderates in July
According to Bank of England data, lending secured on dwellings declined to £2.7bn for July from £3.2bn in June with annual growth unchanged at 3.3%. There was a decline in the number of mortgage approvals to just under 61,000 for the month from 64,000 previously. This was lower than the six-month average of close to 69,000 and the weakest figure since January 2015.
The data will reinforce expectations of a slowdown in the housing sector with the Bank of England continuing to monitor data very closely over the next few months.
Overall bank lending to individuals slowed to £3.8bn for July from a revised £5.1bn the previous month. There was an acceleration in the three-month growth rate to 3.7% from 3.0% as weak April data dropped out of the calculation, while the annual increase was unchanged at 4.1%.
The increase in consumer credit slowed to £1.2bn from £1.9bn previously with slowdown in loan growth for the month. This was the weakest monthly increase for 11 moths and the first annual slowdown for over 18 months, although the annual increase was still above 10%.
Within the company sector, there was an increase in lending for July, which will provide some optimism surrounding overall trends, with relief that lending did not decline following the Brexit vote.
The data suggests some moderation in consumer credit growth, although the trend was already looking unsustainable ahead of the EU referendum impact. The mortgage approvals data will continue to be watched closely to assess whether a dip in July was a temporary factor relating to post-referendum uncertainty or whether there will be a more sustained slowdown due to deteriorating confidence in the housing sector.
read more
Pound soars after strong UK mftg PMI data
Impressive set of manufacturing PMI readings from UK and the pound is flying higher 1 Sept
Much better than expected/prev data has seen the pound stage an impressive rally with GBPUSD testing 1.3250 in a rush and EURGBP knocking on the 0.8400 support door.
GBPJPY has been underpinned all morning and now 137.30.
I'm inclined to sell into this sharp GBP rally but will wait to see how the dust settles. No doubt that there is an appetite for the moment that has been driven by EURGBP supply and GBPJPY demand lately.
The strong beat to new export orders is going to give post-Brexit bulls something to cheer but remember we're not actually in any different position until we actually leave. The real test is yet to come.
Export demand will have been helped by a weaker pound so a stronger pound has a reverse effect.
Bulls will be pleased though and I stand by my view that Brexit ultimately will be UK/GBP bullish. Right now though I'm not so convinced so it's best I sit on my hands.
GBPUSD has larger sell interest at 1.3280 and 1.3300 and that should prove better value to short if we hold. EURGBP demand here and into 0.8385.GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Rally Continues
The GBP/USD currency pair has resumed its bullish momentum on Friday, as the dollar was back under bearish pressure after US jobs growth came in below expectations.
US jobs increased by a slower-than-expected 151,000 in August, against expectations for a rise of 180,000.
The pair is all set to move in quick succession towards $1.3400 levels in the near term, as British pound is stronger against the green back in the intraday trading.
To the upside, the strong resistance can be seen at $1.3370, a break above this level would expose to cable to next resistance level at $1.3423.
To the downside immediate support can be seen at $1.3284, a break below at this level will open the door towards next level at $1.3224.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook September 5-September 9
GBP/USD followed through on a pullback from key trendline resistance early in last week’s trading, but established a floor at the 1.3060 level and recovered to end the week up against the early August highs. Friday’s session ended with the pair at 1.3289, a gain of 1.2% for the week. The key trendline resistance is defined by the highs established in late-June, mid-July, early August and, most recently, with the advance to the August 24th high. The pair closed out the week’s trading modestly above this trendline, so it will be imperative in next week’s trading that this trendline break be sustained and built upon with further gains. Such a development would improve the broader technical outlook for the pair, suggesting a further recovery to gain back the substantial ground lost in the wake of the Brexit vote is on tap for the weeks ahead.
Sterling benefited last week from the manufacturing PMI report, which came in much stronger than expected. The Markit U.K. manufacturing index rose sharply to 53.3 in August from a 41-month low of 48.3 in July, the joint-monthly largest increase in 25 years and its strongest reading since October 2015. The level of 53.3 for August was much better than expected, as consensus was for a reading at 49.0. The data alleviated worries that the EU referendum will not have a sustained impact on manufacturing.
U.K. August construction PMI also indicated recovery, coming in at a 3-month high of 49.2 from 45.9 the previous month. The reading was also above consensus, which called for a more modest increase to 46.5. Despite the recovery indicated by the reading, there was disappointment that the Index did not regain the 50 level signaling expansion, particularly following the jump in manufacturing for August.
On Monday, the services sector report will need to confirm a strong overall economic outlook. U.K. services PMI is the big reading for UK PMI’s and is expected to rise to 48 from 47.4, still remaining in contraction territory. A strong reading should provide further support for sterling, resulting in a continued recovery from the Brexit plunge. From June 23rd through July 6th, when sterling finally established bottom, the currency lost roughly 13% of its value versus the dollar.
read more
UK data - BRC Shop Price Index for August: -2.0% y/y (prior -1.6%)
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index measures price changes in BRC-member retail outlets in the U.K
Sterling was up 0.51% at $1.3363 at 04:50 ET after a high of $1.3375. It was bid ahead of the data.
The U.K. services PMI jumped to 52.9 in August from 47.4 in July.
The August PMI was forecast to come in at 50.0.
A reading of over 50 indicates expansion, one below a contraction.