The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event - page 2
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The whole thing is a gigantic bubble - wars are produced just to hide that the politicians and cbs have no idea what to do.The idea they have is simple : it worked in the past (see US and the wars and the economic effect on them) and they think that it will work again. It will not. Not this time. Fiat money ponzi scheme is coming to the end
Add the fears of EU falling apart and fears of war - and there you have it
Despite Surging Euro S&P Futures Jump On Stop Hunt, Lack Of Daily Bund Rout
It has gotten to where just the lack of a rout in Bunds or any other government issue is enough to activate the "bullish" outside stop hunting algo, which is probably why ES has jumped overnight in another illiquid, newsless session. Curiously, Bunds shave not sold off even though the EUR has jumped sharply by almost 100 pips overnight to a 3 month high also on no news (with some amusing acrobatics by the USDJPY alongside) traditionally a bearish indicator for the Dax and thus the S&P. Perhaps the algos are just late, or maybe the "weak dollar is good for stocks" thesis has been activated, but in any event this morning's ramp higher in the ES will continue until all upside stops are hunted down by Virtu and crushed mercilessly.
A look at markets: in Asia the Nikkei 225 (-1.00%) was weighed on by a raft of soft earnings and JPY strength. Chinese markets fluctuated between gains and losses as participants counterbalance the latest slew of disappointing Chinese data with expectations for additional easing. JGB’s shrugged off earlier weakness to trade up by 4 ticks after finding support at the key 146.50 level, despite a poor 30-year government bond auction, which saw the lowest b/c since February.
Overall, price action for equities this morning has been driven by currency fluctuations with stocks in Europe pulling away from their worst levels in tandem with the EUR. On a sector specific basis, energy names are the notable underperformers in the wake of yesterday’s DoE-inspired slide in oil prices with equity newsflow otherwise relatively light. From a fixed income perspective, Bunds have drifted higher since the open in a partial pull-back of yesterday’s heavy losses with the German curve now at its steepest level in 5 month.
EUR started the session on the front-foot amid no new fundamental catalyst with the move to the upside aided by the USD-index breaking below the Feb low seen at 95.25, leading EUR/USD to trade at 3-month highs. Although there has been no new standout news today it has been part of a broader trend seen over the past few weeks with focus on the disappointing data releases from the US compared to those of the Eurozone. European yields continue to underpin the EUR. Despite Bunds paring some of yesterday's losses, German paper this week has once again added to the heavy losses seen since April 29th. Comments from Greece appear to be more promising with the Greek Fin. Min. Varoufakis this morning acknowledging that Greece has drawn a common line regarding many issues with their creditors.
WTI and Brent crude futures trade modestly lower following the increase in US oil production and a build in east coast inventories, despite a wider than expected draw-down in yesterday’s DoE crude inventory data. Spot gold has seen subdued trade, remaining near 5 week highs, holding onto most of yesterday’s gains following poor US retail sales data. Copper saw mild weakness overnight following further disappointing data from China after aggregate financing and new yuan loans missed expectations, while Dalian iron ore futures declined by over 3% as weakening demand from Chinese steel mills pressured prices.
In summary: European shares little changed having risen from intraday lows with the basic resources and autos sectors underperforming and personal & household, insurance outperforming. Greece wants agreement with creditors by end-May, Varoufakis says. Markets closed today include Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland. The Dutch and U.K. markets are the worst-performing larger bourses. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Irish 10yr bond yields fall; U.S. yields decline. Commodities gain, with nickel, zinc underperforming and silver outperforming. U.S. jobless claims, continuing claims, Bloomberg consumer comfort, PPI due later.
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It is happening right before our eyes : the control is total. In the case of a total control nest step is total chaos
It is happening right before our eyes : the control is total. In the case of a total control nest step is total chaos
It is not an extreme event yet
Wait till some political decisions become public - starting from GB Cameroon's fascistic law changes and ending with Killary being a president
It is not an extreme event yet Wait till some political decisions become public - starting from GB Cameroon's fascistic law changes and ending with Killary being a president
It will start sooner - as soon as spring is over
It will start sooner - as soon as spring is over
It is not about event - but about total control of forex market. That has changed completely
Bank of America: Markets Are in a 'Twilight Zone' and It's Time to Hold More Cash and Gold
In a note sent out this morning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a warning for investors:
Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization...until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Most likely catalysts: Consumer, Rates, A-shares, Speculation, High Yield.
The note also highlights two interesting disconnects in the markets:
Investors say they are optimistic, but there is a high level of cash on the sidelines U.S. stock prices are at record highs, but equity funds are seeing outflows
Regarding the first point, one of Bank of America's surveys showed investor sentiment as being “risk-on," which it says is normally associated with less cash on the sidelines.
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HERE IT IS: SocGen's ominous chart with the swans
Societe Generale is out with its latest quarterly chart of swan risks — and "black swans continue to dominate."
Technically speaking, "black swan" risks are by definition nearly impossible to predict. And when they come, it's bad. But SocGen's swan chart is trying to show that there are economic and geopolitical risks stewing that could seriously rock the economy and the markets if they occur.
This time around, Europe is front and center for political risks. "As we head to press, the risk of a Greek default and possibly Grexit remains very real," according to SocGen. "Medium-term, our concern is that the UK referendum on EU membership (by end-2017) could see a Brexit."
Another risk is a hard landing by China, aka growth to its gross domestic product falling below 5%, which could happen after a "miscalculation of how much financial risk management or structural reform the system can handle," according to SocGen.
On the positive end, there are two upside risks: higher-than-expected multipliers, meaning investors will pay a higher premium for stocks despite lackluster earnings, and the possibility of fast-track reform, especially in the euro area.
Check out all the stewing swans below.
source
It will be enough that Yellen admits that they have no intention to hike rates - that would be something to remember
It will be enough that Yellen admits that they have no intention to hike rates - that would be something to remember
I am afraid that they are going to create some event artificially - and then all the hell could break loose