USDCHF news
USD/CHF weekly outlook: August 12 - 16
The dollar pulled away from seven-week lows against the Swiss franc on Friday but still ended the week lower as uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy weighed.
USD/CHF settled at 0.9222 on Friday, 0.23% higher for the day, trimming the week’s losses to 0.55%, after falling to 0.9173 on Thursday, the lowest since June 1.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9174, the low of June 18 and resistance at 0.9287, the high of August 7.
The greenback came under heavy selling pressure after the latest U.S. jobs report for July showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected. The soft data saw investors reassess expectations on when U.S. central bank would start to taper its USD85 billion-a-month bond buying program.
However, comments by senior Fed officials during the week, including the heads of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Dallas, indicated that the U.S. central bank could begin to scale back its asset purchase program as early as next month if the economy continues to pick up.
The Swiss franc was little changed after official data on Thursday showed that Swiss consumer inflation fell 0.4% in July, in line with expectations.
A report on Wednesday showed that the Swiss National Bank’s foreign currency reserves ticked up to CHF434.85 billion in July from CHF434.76 in June.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 16 - 20
The U.S. dollar was steady close to two-year lows against the Swiss franc on Friday as expectations for a small reduction in the scale of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program mounted ahead of this week’s policy meeting.
USD/CHF hit session highs of 0.8918 and was last up 0.01% to 0.8890.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8839, Wednesday’s low and a two-year low and resistance at 0.8983, the high of December 6.
Expectations for a small reduction in the pace of the Fed’s USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program at its upcoming policy meeting were boosted after stronger-than-forecast U.S. retail sales data for November released on Thursday added to signs that the economic recovery is deepening.
An agreement on a two-year U.S. budget deal was also seen as removing an obstacle to the winding back of monetary stimulus.
The dollar came off highs after data showing that U.S. producer price inflation fell 0.1% in November sparked concerns over the sluggish inflation outlook.
The soft inflation data did little to alter expectations that the Fed will begin withdrawing stimulus in the next few months after the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in November.
The Swiss National Bank maintained the minimum exchange rate on the franc at 1.20 per euro and its benchmark interest rate at zero, following its final policy meeting of 2013 on Thursday, as widely expected.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 23 - 27
The U.S. dollar climbed to a two-week high against the Swiss franc on Friday before pulling back to end mildly lower, as investors sold the greenback to lock in gains from a Fed-inspired rally.
USD/CHF hit session highs of 0.9001, before turning 0.18% lower to settle at 0.8962. The greenback still ended the week with a 0.8% gain against the Swissy.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8933, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9001, Friday’s high.
Demand for the greenback remained supported after the Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its USD85 billion-a-month bond buying program by USD10 billion in January, amid indications of an improving U.S. economy.
The U.S. central bank reiterated that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%, the threshold at which the Fed has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.
On Friday, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded by 4.1% in the third quarter, well above initial estimates for 3.6% growth, adding to signs that the economic recovery is deepening.
In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key reports on durable goods orders, new home sales and jobless claims.
Trading volumes are expected to remain light due to the Christmas holiday and as many traders already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 30 - January 3
The U.S. dollar fell to the lowest level since November 2011 against the Swiss franc on Friday before trimming losses, as poor year-end liquidity exaggerated market moves.
USD/CHF hit a session low of 0.8800, the pair’s lowest since November 4, 2011. The pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8916 by close of trade, down 0.56% for the day and 0.51% lower for the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8800, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.8967, the high of December 26.
The Swissie rallied along with other European currencies, such as the euro and the pound, after European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said keeping interest rates low may endanger political reforms.
According to Germany’s Bild newspaper, Weidmann said low inflation shouldn’t be used to justify loose monetary policy. "We must take care to raise interest rates again in a timely manner should inflation pressures build," he reportedly added.
Demand for the greenback remained supported amid expectations of further stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank will start reducing its bond-buying stimulus program by USD10 billion a month in January, amid indications of an improving U.S. economy.
Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, as the U.S. recovery deepens.
USD/CHF: Loses Upside Momentum, Vulnerable To The Downside
With USD/CHF failing to follow through on the back of its previous week gains at the end of the week, the risk is for further downside threats to occur.
This development exposes the 0.8971 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8900 level followed by the 0.8850 level and subsequently the 0.87.79 level. Below here if seen will set the stage for more decline towards the 0.8700 level.
On the other hand, resistance resides at the 0.9126 level, its Jan 08’2013 high where a violation if seen will pave the way for a run at the 0.9191 level, representing its Nov 20 2013 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength.
All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: February 3 - 7
The dollar was higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as data on personal spending and consumer sentiment added to the view that the U.S. economic recovery is deepening.
USD/CHF hit highs of 0.9080, the strongest since January 23 and was last up 0.39% to 0.9062. For the week, the pair advanced 1.12%.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8960 and resistance at 0.9133, the high of January 23.
Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, above expectations for an increase of 0.2%.
A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 81.2 in January from 82.5 in December, but was better than the preliminary reading of 80.4 and forecasts for a reading of 81.0.
The reports came one day after data showed that the U.S. economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.
The data fuelled hopes that the recovery in the world’s largest economy could withstand reductions to the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program and turmoil in emerging markets.
On Wednesday the Fed said it would scale back its monthly asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion, citing improvements in the labor market.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: March 3 - 7
The dollar fell to more than one-year lows against the Swiss franc on Friday after data showed that U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised lower, while rising tensions in Ukraine and a weaker Chinese yuan also underpinned safe haven demand.
USD/CHF hit 0.8775, the weakest since November 2011 and ended Friday’s session down 0.90% at 0.8802. For the week, the pair lost 0.95%.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8625 and resistance at 0.8888, Friday’s high.
The dollar weakened after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.
Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.
In testimony to the Senate banking committee in Washington, Ms. Yellen said it was hard to say how much the recent soft data was due to weather and added that the bank would be attentive to signals on whether the recovery is progressing in line with expectations.
Demand for the traditional safe haven Swiss franc was also underpinned as political and military tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, following reports that armed men had occupied airports in the pro-Russia Crimea region.
Meanwhile, concerns over a steep decline in the Chinese yuan curbed risk appetite, amid speculation that the country’s central bank has intervened to add volatility to the currency ahead of possible economic reforms.
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My favorite trade this week is in the USDCHF, and I came across an analysis which is not my own but has a similar conclusion which is why I happily took it and thanks the guys at Paxforex for this chart which made my start into this trading week a bit easier.
I have had this pair on my list of currency pairs to analyze this morning, but thankfully it was done for me. I am not a big advocate of taking the analysis of anyone other than myself for my own portfolio (not saying others are bad, just stating that I trade my own stuff).
With that in mind, if you decide to enter a trade there are only two things you can do: You either go long or short. Therefore, you will find plenty of material supporting your own idea and plenty of material stating the opposite of what you thought.
Every once in a while you may come across an analysis which you agree on and like, despite not being your own so this morning I did come across this USDCHF analysis which I personally like and since I planned to add this currency pair to my portfolio this week anyway if my levels are hit I spend 30 seconds for a thank you message rather than x-amount of time for a full analysis. Does not happen often, but when it does I know how to appreciate it. I got my long in at 0.9350 on Monday and another long today at 0.9275.