AUD/USD news - page 12
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
The AUDUSD breaks below the 0.7800 level, a pullback to that level could give us the opportunity of a short.
Preview: What time is the RBA decision?
The RBA decision is at 0330 GMT (10:30 pm ET). A quick preview
The Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision is as close as it gets. The Australian cash rate futures market prices the chance of a cut at 49.2% and no cut at 50.8%.
Here are some things to read while you're waiting.
McCrann in February said it would be a shock if the RBA cut rates today but in a video late last week he said "On balance, I think it's probably more likely the Reserve Bank will sit on its hands on Tuesday."
Bloomberg surveyed 29 economists and 18 believe they will cut.
source
Australian dollar slightly higher ahead of retail sales, trade
The Australian dollar traded stronger on Thursday early in Asia ahead of trade and retail sales.
AUD/USD traded at 0.9630, up 0.04%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 119.72, up 0.03%. The US dollar index was quoted at 95.97, down 0.02%.
Australia reports its trade balance for January with a A$950 million deficit seen, while retail sales for the same month are seen up 0.4%.
At 1030 (0130 GMT), Bank of Japan board member Takahide Kiuchi is due to speak to business leaders. Kiuchi is one of the four board members who voted against the Oct. 31 easing.
Overnight, the U.S. dollar rose to its highest level against the euro on Wednesday in more than 11 years, ahead of the European Central Bank's announcement on Thursday detailing the start of its 60 billion a month quantitative easing program.
The continuing decline comes on the eve of Thursday's ECB meeting where policymakers are expected to release critical details on a monetary easing program that was passed last month.
Among the topics expected to be discussed at the meeting in Cyprus include: projections for inflation and growth, the length and scope of the program, as well as projections for when interest rates could rise again in Europe.
Also on Wednesday, Greece announced the auction of 1.138 billion in six-month Treasury bills, allowing it to refinance a maturing issue. The Treasury bills were sold at a yield of 2.97%, up from 2.75% at a prior sale last month.
U.S. stocks, meanwhile, fell amid a flurry of mixed economic data.
In its monthly National Employment Report released on Wednesday, payroll services firm ADP said that the private sector added 212,000 non-farm jobs in February, just below forecasts of a 220,000 gain. For the month of January, private payrolls were revised upward to 250,000 from a previously reported total of 213,000.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Services sector recorded its highest activity level since October, as the Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 57.1 from a January reading of 51.7. The final number also exceeded a monthly forecast of 54.8.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also said on Wednesday that its services index climbed to 56.9 for February, up from a reading of 56.7 a month earlier.
read more
AUD/USD forecast for the week of March 9
The AUD/USD pair initially broke higher during the course of the week, but struggled to hang onto the gains above the 0.78 handle. That being the case, the market looks as if it’s ready to continue going lower, as we formed a shooting star, and if we can continue to go lower from here, we believe that ultimately this pair should head to the 0.75 level, and then perhaps even lower than that. We believe that the 0.80 level above is massively resistive, and therefore we feel that the sellers still will have control.
source
AUD/USD Forecast Mar. 9-13
The Australian dollar lost 70 points last week, as AUD/USD closed at 0.7714. This week’s major events are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The markets had expected another RBA cut last week, but the central bank held firm and maintained rates at 2.25%. In the US, employment data was very strong, as the US gained 295 thousand jobs in February, beating expectations.
* All times are GMT.
RBA to move on rates in April
The RBA, in a shock decision last week decided to keep interest rates on hold in Australia at a record low of 2,25%, brushing off fears of weak unemployment and poor capital expenditure figures.
Before the Announcement, 58% of analysts polled expected the central bank to cut rates to 2.25%
Guest Post by Andrew Masters from FiboGroup
One of the reasons the bank may have been reluctant to move is the sky high prices in the property market with another rate cut only adding fuel to the fire.
In his speech after the rate decision Reseve Bank governor Glen Stevens noted that the housing market remains a worry, in particular regarding investors and that the central bank is considering ways to tackle the problem,
“Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger growth in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities over recent months.” He said
“The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have risen, in part as a result of declining long-term interest rates”. He also noted.
The latest GDP figures last week may be a reason for the central bank to cut rates in April as the economy struggles to overcome the end of the mining boom.
Gross domestic product in Australia grew 0.5% in the last quarter of the year, coming in below expectations of a 0.6% rise while the yearly figure came in at a disappointing 2.5%, which analysts attribute to the end of the mining boom.
“The soft growth outcome reflects falling mining investment, weak public spending and a large subtraction to growth from inventories,” said Felicity Emmett, economist at ANZ Bank.
“We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by a further 25 basis points in April.”
read more
AUD/USD: Aussie Slides with Consumer Index
The Australian dollar broke below the $0.7700 handle against the greenback early Tuesday morning, shortly after a survey of Australian consumer sentiment signaled a further deterioration in confidence last week.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Sentiment index fell from 112.5 to 110.3 in the week ended March 8, where a figure above 100 shows net optimism among the surveyed consumers. This was the lowest reading in three months, according to ANZ.
Australia's currency, better known as the aussie, fell 0.28% to $0.7679 on Tuesday morning in Sydney after the release, from $0.7701 at the close of trade in New York on Monday just hours earlier.
Coming up later today National Australia Bank (NAB) is due to release its Business Confidence and Business Conditions indices, which are likely to move the currency again.
With a few monthly exceptions, the index has been very soft over the last few years, reflecting businesses' unwillingness to invest and hire in the current economic climate.
AUD/USD forecast for the week of March 16, 2015
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, but gave back some of losses. However, the market looks as if it is still fairly soft, and that we should continue to go lower. However, the choppiness will probably keep longer-term traders at bay, so having said that we are paying attention to short-term charts only, and frankly don’t have much in the way of longer-term selling opportunities. We believe that the 0.80 level above should continue to offer resistance, so as long as we are below there, we would only sell.
source
Australian dollar weaker in early Asia, Debelle due to speak
The Australian dollar eased in early Asian trade on Monday in a light data day in the region.
On the cards Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle speaks later in the day.
AUD/USD traded at 0.7624, down 0.14%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 121.40, up 0.01% and EUR/USD was quoted at 1.0492, down 0.04%.
Last week, the U.S. dollar rallied to fresh 12-year highs against the euro on Friday as the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank pressured the single currency lower.
EUR/USD hit lows of 1.0462, the weakest since Jan. 9, 2003 before pulling back to 1.0496 in late trade, still down 1.31% for the day.
The single currency had already weakened broadly this year after the ECB unveiled a trillion-euro quantitative easing program in January. The euro turned sharply lower after the bank started asset purchases on Monday, pushing euro area bond yields to new lows.
Lower bond yields make the single currency less attractive to investors at a time when expectations are mounting that the Federal Reserve could start rising interest rates mid-year.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was quoted at 100.63, down 0.09%.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing their attention on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement to see if it would drop its reference to being patient before raising rates. Central bank
read more
AUD/USD: Aussie Fortified Before RBA Minutes, FOMC Meeting
The aussie was underpinned versus the greenback on Monday, as traders wait for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) meeting minutes due on Tuesday and the FOMC monetary meeting, with its outcome on Wednesday, The Fed is expected to drop the "patient" phrase from its post-meeting statement, and may also hint at the timing of the rate hike, especially after February's superb payrolls.
The aussie spiked 0.33% to $0.7666 against its US peer during the North American trading session, while it was seen at its intraday low of $0.7613 earlier in the session ahead of the upbeat domestic vehicle sales data, which showed that 95,737 new vehicles were sold in February, up 2.9% from January when sales had fallen 1.9%.
This week's focus in Australia is on the RBA's monetary policy meeting minutes expected on Tuesday. Traders are looking for fresh incentives and for further insights on the central bank's future policy course.
"The key release for the local currency this week will be the RBA minutes from the last meeting. After the decision to hold, it seems the market is still expecting a very dovish set of minutes. Governor Glenn Stevens will then speak at a luncheon on Friday where he could give further insight on policy," Stan Shamu wrote in a note on Monday.
According to the CFTC and Rabobank's research, long USD positions surged in the wake of the previous week’s release of strong February non-farm payrolls data, and have now surpassed the previous highs for the year, while AUD net shorts rose sharply on the back of growth concerns.
"The market’s focus this week will fall exclusively on Wednesday’s FOMC proceedings, with the Fed widely expected to remove the “patient” reference from their March statement. While the move will be the next key pivotal step toward the exit, putting a June rate hike in play, Yellen will be careful to stress that the Fed will remain data dependent in gauging the timing of the first rate hike. We believe the Fed will want to be “reasonably confident” that inflation is moving back toward their 2% target before initiating rate hikes, and with inflation momentum set to trough in May, we look for the first hike to be delivered in September," analysts at TD Securities wrote in a research note on Monday.
read more