AUD/USD news - page 6
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AUD/USD edges higher but gains capped
The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, supported by the release of upbeat Australian business confidence data, although other disappointing economic reports seemed to limit gains.
AUD/USD hit 0.9369 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since May 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9371, adding 0.17%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.9258, the low of June 5 and resistance at 0.9409, the high of May 14.
The National Australia Bank earlier reported that its business confidence index rose to 7 last month, from a reading of 6 in April.
A separate report showed however that job advertisements in Australia dropped 5.6% in May, after a 1.9% increase in April, whose figure was revised down from a previously estimated 2.2% gain.
Data also showed that home loans in Australia were flat in April, compared to expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.8% fall in March, whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated 0.9% decline.
Meanwhile, demand for the greenback remained supported after U.S. employment data released last Friday fuelled further optimism over the strength of the job market's recovery.
The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs last month, just under expectations for jobs growth of 218,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a five-and-a-half year low of 6.3%.
The Aussie was higher against the euro, with EUR/AUD edging down 0.14% to 1.4509.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014
The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, but as you can see the 0.94 level has held as resistance. We think that there is a significant amount of resistance between there and the 0.95 level, and as a result we would actually we until we broke above the 0.95 level on at least a daily close in order to start buying. We think pullbacks will continue to attract buyers, and that ultimately the Australian dollar will continue to go higher over the longer term as the market heats up.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 23, 2014
The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4
The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record-low levels for a considerable time.
AUD/USD hit 0.9444 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since April 10, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9423 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.09% for the day and 0.35% higher for the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9353, the low from June 25 and resistance at 0.9444, the high from June 23.
Upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data released Friday failed to dispel concerns over the outlook for the wider economic recovery.
The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.
The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.
The dollar weakened broadly after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.
U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.
The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday will also be in focus.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of July 7, 2014
The AUD/USD pair tried to break out to the upside during the course of the week, but you can see that the very top of the resistance box that we have drawn on this chart did in fact hold. The 0.95 level is the top of that resistance zone, and sellers did push the market down significantly from that level. With that in mind, it’s probably more or less a reaction to the better than anticipated job summer coming out of the United States, and that means that perhaps the Federal Reserve will not be able to keep monetary policy lose for an extended amount of time anymore. The Australian dollar of course is a higher-yielding currency as far as interest rates are concerned, but if the US dollar starts to yield more in the way of interest, that could in fact bridge the gap so to speak as interest rate differential shrinks.
The fact that we formed a shooting star suggests to us that this market will in fact pullback but there is a massive amount of support just below at the 0.92 level, so we feel that this market is more or less getting ready to pick to the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby offering a medium-term selling position at best, as we fall back towards the 0.92 handle. However, if we managed to break the top of the 0.95 resistance bloc, we could in fact start seeing massive amounts of bullish orders come into this market and send it to the 0.98 handle at the very beginning, and then more than likely head to the parity level as it is the next large, round, psychologically significant number.
We actually believe that it’s an easier to trade to take if we break to the upside, simply because it shows such a significant amount of strength in order break above that area. On the other hand, even if we do fall, we would like to buy as soon as we get a supportive signal down towards of the 0.95 level, which of course would continue the move higher if we do in fact see that support.
AUD/USD Forecast July 7-11
AUD/USD showed some movement in both directions but ended the week with slight losses. The pair closed the week at 0.9352. The upcoming week is highlighted by NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
US employment numbers sparkled last week, led by Nonfarm Payrolls, which hit 288 thousand. As well, the Unemployment Rate dipped to 6.1%. In Australia, Building Approvals looked sharp but Retail Sales posted a decline.
*All times are GMT.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of July 14, 2014
The AUD/USD pair tried to break above the 0.9450 handle, but as you can see found enough resistance above to turn things back around and form a hammer for the second week in a row. The fact that we have formed to shooting starts in a row suggests to us that the market is ready to pull back a bit, but we do see a massive amount of support at the 0.92 handle as well. Because of this, we think that any selling opportunity at this point in time will more than likely be of the shorter-term variety, as the range continues to strangle the marketplace.
If we can finally break above the 0.95 handle, that would be massively bullish. Not only would it be a clearance of a very obvious resistance area, but it would also break above to shooting stars in a row, which of course is massively strong as well. We believe that this market should continue above there are heading to the 0.97 handle first, and then to the parity level given enough time as it is a natural magnet for price based upon the longer-term chart.
However, we break down below the 0.92 level, the market could very easily fall at that point and head to the 0.90 level. That is just as magnetic for price as the parity level is based upon the longer-term charts, so we the way we figure that the market would be apt to move to one of this market figures. However, at this point in time it appears that we are currently stuck in a 250 pips range, which while good enough for day traders and short-term traders, leaves a lot to be desired for longer-term traders as it really is and training at the moment. We are essentially at an area of introspection as the market continues to try and figure out where to go next, and we believe that move will come sooner or later, but right now it appears that we just don’t have the momentum either way.
AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25
AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9352. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Australian employment data was a mix, as Employment Claims rebounded but the unemployment rate moved upwards. This weighed on the Aussie. In the US, the FOMC minutes did not shed any light on possible interest rate hikes, while Unemployment Claims looked sharp.
Updates:
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
*All times are GMT.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of July 28, 2014
The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the area at the 0.8450 to be far too resistive to get above. As you can see on the attached chart there is roughly a 50 pip range of resistance, and therefore we pushed the market back down to form a shooting star. However, the market has been going sideways for some time so we believe that the market should eventually break out to the upside as the persistence should pay off. Above the 0.95 level, we are buyers, but in the meantime we are on the sidelines.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of August 4, 2014
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, but found the 0.93 level to be supportive. The real support in our opinion is down at the 0.92 handle though, so seeing this market drop from here is what we expect to happen. However, the 0.92 level should be rather supportive, so we are actually going to wait and see if that level offers a supportive candle that gives us a better chance at a little bit longer-term trade. Buying at this point in time is not something we are interested in until we test that level.
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