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GBP/USD: the Pound will fall to the level of 1.5950 Current trend The British currency continues to mill about, while the pair GBP/USD has barely responded to the macro-economic statistics. Last Friday preliminary British GDP for Q3 2013 became known. The index was consistent with expectations and GBP/USD slightly strengthened; however a few hours later started to decline again. This trading week started with the sideways movement in the channel of .6190-1.6160. Today the following data will be released: retail sales index and index industrial output in the UK and the US construction sector statistics. Support and resistance The pair GBP/USD cannot determine movement directions. Prediction that the Pound will grow against the USD does not seem so unambiguous. Investors are losing interest in GBP and demand for the British currency is decreasing, which puts additional pressure on the pair. In the medium-term the pair may go down to support level of 1.5950 and downward trend can continue. Support levels: 1.6100, 1.6000, 1.5880 and 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6200 and 1.6260. Trading tips Sell orders can be placed at the current price with profit taking of 1.5950-1.5880. Pending orders to sell can be opened from the levels of 1.6200 and 1.6260 with profit taking at the level of 1.6000.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CAD: general analysis Current trend The pair USD/CAD continues to show steady growth. If the pair manages to break down resistance level of 1.0457, the pair may go up to the level of 1.0555. Canadian dollar is supported by fundamental data. It became known that unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in September, which is the lowest rate since December 2008. Average wages increased by 1.83%, indicating recovery of the country’s economy. Amid this facts consumer sentiment index rose up to 59.75. Number of Canadians, who receive unemployment benefits, is reducing. This fact will have a positive impact on the domestic consumption and business climate in the country. Canada is making progress in the field of International trade. The country signed a free trade agreement with European Union. This decision will allow the country to increase trading turnover and what is the most important, this agreement shall eliminate duties on exports and imports. EU will become Canada’s second largest trading partner after the USA. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level on the daily chart is 1.0457. Support level is 1.0396. Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions from the level of 1.0460 with the target of 1.0545 and protective orders near 1.0425.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from above, current Kumo is ascending. The pair has pulled back under Tenkan-sen (1.3792) and Kijun-Sen (1.3786) lines, which become a resistance levels. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (1.3836).
EUR/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines still can’t cross above the cloud and the red line is once again above the blue one. Chinkou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-Sen line at 1.3674. One of the previous maximum of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.4188
Key levels Support levels: 1.3695, 1.3674. Resistance levels: 1.3792, 1.4188. Trading tips On the both charts Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are close above the chart; the cross between them will be a signal of the trend reversal. The targets for the short positions are 1.3695 and 1.3674. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: decline in the US GDP may weaken the USD Current trend On Tuesday the pair GBP/USD fell amid strengthening of the USD. The American currency was supported by favourable data on industrial production and capacity utilization. Important British news, which could have supported the Pound, is not scheduled for the release today. Attention shall be paid to the data on key interest rate and GDP in the USA. In addition, investors will be interested in the outcome of the meeting of FOMC and the destiny of American of quantitative easing program. Support and resistance Decline in GDP in Q3 was caused by political wars in the USA, which can have negative impact on the USD rate and provide support to the pair GBP/USD. It is expected that the pair will go up to the first resistance level of 1.6100, and after that will resume downtrend. Support levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5880 and 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6100, 1.6200 and, 1.6260. Trading tips In the current situation it is recommended to place sell orders at the level of 1.6100 with take profit at the level of 1.5920.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAG/USD: technical analysis Current trend Two weeks ago the pair reached local lows at the level of 20.48 and after that started to grow. Metal rose up to resistance level of 22.90, which coincides with the level of 38.2% Fibonacci, which prevented further rise in price. Now the pair consolidates in the channel of 22.70-22.25. Technical indicators also show that decline is possible. The signal line of MACD is ready to cross the zero line; Stochastic lines have crossed, although they are directed sideways. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 22.60, next after it is 22.90, which is the key level for the “bulls.” Support levels are 22.25, 22.00, 21.70 and 21.55. Trading tips At the moment the pair is in the sideways channel; however soon one of its boundaries can be broken down, therefore it is not recommended to enter the market before this moment.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: Optimism of the US Fed has strengthened Dollar Current trend Following the announcement of the outcome of FOMC meeting, the pair EUR/USD has slightly declined. The USD was supported by optimistic forecast of the US economic growth. Fed members said about the rise of economic activity and possibility of phasing out of quantitative easing program later this year. Support and resistance The price has overcome important support level of 1.3730 and is moving now towards the level of 1.3700, trying to break down average line of “Bollinger Bands” indicator. Next obstacle for the “bears” will be the line 1.3660. Resistance levels are 1.3730, 1.3770 and 1.3832. On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm probability of downward movement. Bollinger bands are directed downward. Intersection of MACD and the zero line gives a sell signal. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions from the level of 1.3700 with the primary target at the level of 1.3655.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CHF: analysis and forecast Current trend Last week the pair hit two-year lows at the level of 0.8890; however it failed to maintain this level for long. Probably current rise is just correction and the pair will try to overcome support level of 0.8890 once again. It is also possible that the USD will continue to strengthen, especially if the US Fed will curtail Q3 program this year. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 0.9020, which is the main target of the “bulls”. Next resistance levels are 0.9050, 0.9075 and 0.9130. Support levels are 0.8980 and 0.8960. Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after consolidation of the pair above the level of 0.9020. Limit buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.8900. Short positions are recommended below the level of 0.8870.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: general analysis Current trend The pair NZD/USD continues trading in the downtrend. Since 22 October the New Zealand currency has lost about 350 points. At the moment the pair is consolidating near the level of 0.8185, which is a support level both on the daily chart and on the four-hour chart. Breakdown of this level can trigger aggressive sale and decline in the pair to the level of 0.8040. The NZD is under pressure from Australia, which is a consumer of 20% of New Zealand’s export. According to forecast of OECD, GDP of Australia will fall below the level of 2.8%, which will affect trade with New Zealand and the rate of NZD/USD. Technical indicators do not show favourable picture for the NZD. Stochastic lines are in the overbought zone, giving a sell signal. The price chart on the four-hour timeframe is below the moving average with the period 50, which also confirms downtrend. The trend will not change until the pair consolidates above the level of 0.8340. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level on the daily chart is 0.8340. Support level is 0.8185. Trading tips It is advisable to place short positions after breakdown of the level of 0.8185 with the target of 0.8040 and protective orders around 0.8200.
Dmitry Agurbash Analysts of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: investors have put trust in the USD again Current trend As expected, the pair GBP/USD rapidly declined on Thursday. Weakness of the currency was caused by the fact that it is significantly overbought. Plus to this additional pressure on the pair was provided by the rise in the USD. On Thursday positive data on the US labour market was released: number of initial applications for unemployment benefits has reduced. PMI in the UK and business activity index in the US manufacturing sector will become known today. Support and resistance If British fundamental data is negative, the pair will fall to the recent local lows of 1.5920 (level of 23.6% Fibonacci). The U.S. Open Market Committee warms up demand for the USD, giving promises to terminate QE program. In the medium-term the pair will continue to decline, target for the short positions are the levels of 1.5750 (highs of June) и 1.5550 (level 50% Fibonacci). Indicators: MACD, Ichimoku and Bollinger Bands confirm forecast of downward movement. MACD histogram fell below the signal line. The price has broken the lines Tenkan and Kijun from top to bottom as well as the average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. Support levels: 1.6000, 1.5920, 1.5880 and 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6100, 1.6200 and 1.6260. Trading tips Given the indicators it is recommended to place pending short positions from the level of 1.6100 with profit taking at the level of 1.5920.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are directed towards each other. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair has slowed down its fall and been corrected above Kijun-sen line, which is now a support level (0.9484). The pair will meet a resistance at the lower border of the cloud (0.9596).
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The pair has fallen under the blue line, which becomes a resistance level at 0.9518. The support level and a target for the Bears is the upper border of the cloud at 0.9308.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9484, 0.9308. Resistance levels: 0.9596, 0.9518. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the correction is turning to the trend reversal. The signal to buy will be the cross of Chinkou Span line and the price chart. On the daily chart the picture is different; we expect a signal to sell after the cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Targets for the short positions are 0.9484 and 0.9308. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies