Eur/usd - page 90
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EUR/USD Forecast April 28, 2014
The EUR/USD pair rose during the session on Friday, but as you can see gaveback quite a bit of the gains. In the end, we ended up forming a shooting star, but there so much in the way of shooting stars and hammers in the past several sessions, we feel that this market is essentially going to be difficult to trade. Quite frankly, we are not interested in we feel that the market should continue to be avoided at this moment time at least until we get some type of impulsive candle in one direction or the other.
source
EUR/USD Forecast Apr 28-May 2
EUR/USD traded in a relatively narrow range in the post Easter week. Will it break out now? Critical inflation data from Germany and from the euro zone stands out. In addition, retail sales, employment data and some more PMIs among the highlights of a very busy week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Germany released promising readings indicating robust recovery. Flash manufacturing PMI beat expectations reaching 54.2 while the services PMI surged to 55 points from 53.0 in March. Furthermore, The German IFO business climate edged up to 111.2 points. On the other hand, Draghi weighed in and repeated the explicit connection between the exchange rate and monetary policy. Markets seem to want action and not only words at this point.
read more
EURUSD Weekly Outlook: More Volatility Likely, But Can The Pair Finally Break Out?
Summary
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
First we look at overall risk appetite as portrayed by our sample of global indexes, because the EURUSD has been tracking these fairly well recently.
Overall Risk Appetite Per Weekly Charts Of Leading Global Stock Indexes
Overall risk appetite per sample of weekly charts for leading global stock indexes shows virtually no change from the prior week.
read more
EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2
The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as concerns over heightened tensions in eastern Ukraine and the possibility of fresh stimulus measures from the European Central Bank weighed.
EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3833 after touching session highs of 1.3848. For the week, the pair gained 0.30%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3790, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3863, the high of April 17.
Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.
Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.
The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.
The euro’s gains were held in check after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated warnings on Thursday that further gains in the euro could trigger additional monetary easing. He also said the ECB could launch a "broad-based" asset purchase program if the medium-term inflation outlook deteriorated.
Earlier in the week, data showed that the recovery in the euro zone private sector continued this month, but pointed to a divergence between Germany and France.
The recovery in Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy accelerated, with activity in both the manufacturing and service sector strengthening, but growth in the French private sector lost momentum.
In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to indications that the economy is improving.
The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.
read more
Finland Consumer Confidence Weakens Sharply In April
Finland's consumer confidence weakened sharply in April, following an improvement in the previous month, survey results from Statistics Finland showed Monday.
The consumer confidence index dropped to 3.7 in April from 8.5 in March. In February, the score was 8.3.
The survey, based on 1,311 consumers conducted between April 1 and 16, showed that the measure of assessment of own economic situation in twelve months time fell to 4.2 from 5.5. The indicator reflecting the view on the general economy tumbled to -2.5 from 1.0.
Consumers predicted that the consumer prices would go up by 2.4 percent over the next 12 months. In the March survey, the expected annual inflation figure was 2.3 percent.
In April, 37 percent of consumers thought the time was favorable for buying durable goods, while altogether 52 percent considered saving favorable in April.
Draghi Awaits Pivotal Price Data That Could Spur Action
The most-radical policy decision of Mario Draghi’s 2 1/2 years so far at the helm of the European Central Bank could hinge on a single piece of data.
A weak inflation reading on April 30 will probably see the ECB president facing calls to act as soon as next week by imposing negative interest rates for the first time or pushing forward with plans for quantitative easing. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict consumer prices rose 0.8 percent this month from a year ago, compared with 0.5 percent in March.
A lower-than-forecast number would undermine the ECB’s view that inflation should rebound as temporary distortions pass and the economy recovers. Draghi has been increasingly explicit about what might prompt action if it doesn’t, saying that broad-based asset purchases are possible should the medium-term outlook for prices worsen.
“If inflation doesn’t pick up from last month, then it’s game over for wait-and-see,” said Richard Barwell, senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “I expect prices to recover from last month and the ECB to play for time if they can.”
Estimates for April inflation range from 0.7 percent to 0.9 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey of 37 economists. Price gains have been below 1 percent since October, compared with the ECB’s goal of just under 2 percent, and March’s figure was the weakest in more than four years.
read more
ECB’s Constancio says they have no target in mind for April inflation data
Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB Bond-Purchases Unlikely
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.
The central bank does stand ready to embark on QE if needed, Draghi said at the gathering attended by lawmakers from the parties that form the nation’s coalition government, the official told reporters. The person declined to be identified because the session in Koenigswinter, Germany, was private.
Draghi has said he is considering unprecedented measures from negative interest rates to QE to avert the risk of deflation as he guides the euro area through a gradual economic recovery. Government and central-bank officials in Germany, the region’s largest economy, have been among the strongest opponents of his more radical policies amid concern the ECB will overstep its mandate.
While the ECB expects a prolonged period of low inflation (ECCPEST), Draghi doesn’t see the imminent threat of falling prices, he told lawmakers, according to the official.
“These comments may be a sign that the economic recovery in the euro area will be strong enough after all for inflation to pick up without further ECB action,” said Christian Schulz, senior European economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “Of course, it may also mean that technical preparations for QE are still on its way but that it may take the ECB some time to come up with something.”
The euro rose after Draghi’s comments were reported and traded at $1.3849 at 7:48 p.m. in Frankfurt, up 0.1 percent today.
read more
ECB's Constancio: Eurozone Not Entirely Out Of Danger Zone
While the euro area has made much progress in reducing the financial stability risks, it still faces several challenges, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Monday.
Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt, Constancio said, "Given where we stood barely two years ago - on the edge of redenomination risks - such progress is encouraging."
"However, it does not mean we are entirely out of the danger zone."
Constancio pointed out the large dispersion of borrowing costs for non-financial corporations in the banking markets.
"Significant financial fragmentation still remains in the euro area," he said.
"This is a concern for the recovery and also for monetary and macro-prudential policy."
The banking union must be instrumental in resolving the crisis, the policymaker added.
Further, Constancio noted that the single currency bloc still faces several large challenges that include poor growth, high unemployment, remaining fragmentation and low inflation.
The period of low inflation threatens to aggravate the burden of the debt overhang still besetting governments and private economic agents, he said.
The ECB does not have any target in mind for April inflation, he said in response to questions from reporters. He also asserted that a single figure alone cannot prompt a policy change.
The bank is set to hold the next rate-setting session on May 8.
The central bank has several instruments at its disposal and it will use them if there is a need, Constancio reiterated.
April inflation figures are due to be released on Wednesday. In March, headline inflation fell to a worrying 52-month low of 0.5 percent, way out of the ECB's target of "below, but close to 2 percent'.
source
German April HICP inflation rises only to 1.1% – EUR/USD falls
German headline CPI rises to 1.3%, below 1.4% expected. Month over month, it dropped 0.2%. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices rises from 0.9% to 1.1%, below 1.3% expected. M/m prices dropped 0.3%. Headline CPI was expected to rise to 1.4% in April from 1% in March. On a monthly basis, prices were expected to drop by 0.1% after a rise of 0.3% beforehand. The HICP was also expected to drop by 0.1% on a monthly basis and advance to 1.3% from 0.9% last time. The German preliminary inflation carry a significant weight in tomorrow’s critical euro-zone inflation numbers. The bigger miss is the HICP figures. The ECB expected a stronger rise due to the shift in the date of the Easter holiday. That theory helped only a little.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.3860 towards the release, experiencing low volatility. EUR/USD falls below 1.3840. — updates coming –
Earlier, the Econoimc Sentiment Indicator for April disappointed with a drop to 102 points. Consumer confidence advanced to -8.6 points, industrial confidence fell to -3.6 and the services sentiment dropped to 3.5 points. The GfK consumer confidence for Germany remained unchanged at 8.5 points.
What might be worrying for the euro-zone is the squeeze in M3 Money Supply, which dropped from 1.3% to 1.1%, falling short of expectations.
Euro-zone headline inflation stood on 0.5% in March. Core inflation dropped to 0.7%. The ECB is expecting a higher year over year number in April due to the shift in the dates of Easter.
source