Eur/usd - page 400
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France CPI Feb flash mm +0.2% vs +0.4% exp Latest inflation data also just out
Also out PPI Jan:
Yesterday the EURUSD went back and forward again but this time with a narrow range and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting lack of momentum and possible consolidation.
The pair is trading below the 10 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic resistances however is still trading above the 50-day moving average that are acting as dynamic support. The moving averages are squeezing the price let’s wait to see where it will pop.
The key levels to watch are: The previous swing high at 1.1376, a daily resistance at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1072 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1097, the 200-day moving average at 1.1024 (resistance), 50-day moving average at 1.0986 (support) and a daily support at 1.0900.
EUR/USD: Dollar Advances After US Data Spree According to the second estimate, the US GDP decreased to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.0% in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected the number to decline to 0.4%. Moreover, the GDP price index fell from 1.3% to 0.9% and the PCE annualized indicator declined to 2.0% from 3.0% previously.
US economic growth slowed notably less than economists and original reports had indicated, but the additional output was the result of more bloated inventories and smaller imports that came at the expense of weaker consumption.
Later, the PCE data showed a robust increase in the inflation momentum in January. Low unemployment and gas savings, together with massive wage growth, helped US consumers expand their personal consumption expenditures, as the PCE (excluding food & energy) rose a strong 0.3% in January, eclipsing the 0.1% increase forecasters had anticipated,
The greenback advanced slightly after the numbers and the EUR/USD pair was spotted at daily lows, trading around $1.10, although the initial reaction was not very volatile.
During the morning, the pair tested the 200-day moving average around $1.1050/60 and failed to breach it and a quick drop toward the $1.10 barrier followed.
From the euro point of view, French CPI for February improved notably to 0.2% from -1.0% previously, but the yearly print dropped to negative territory, from 0.2% to -0.2%. Both measures came out below market estimates.
In addition, French GDP for the fourth quarter ticked higher to 0.3% from the 0.2% booked in the third quarter, while the year-on-year gauge also improved a notch to 1.4%.
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Surprising move today!
Finally EUR/USD under the support level. I can close the short position now and wait for the price on Monday under 1.0900 for another position.
The EUR/USD will continue the down trend if it broke below the 1.0900.
This morning EUR/USD broke out below support, after USD rallied on better than expected GDP data.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 29, 2016 The EUR/USD pair fell significantly during the course of the week, slicing through the 1.1050 level during the course of the week, and testing the 1.09 level. Ultimately, this market could very well find its way going down to the 1.08 handle, where there should be a significant amount of support. A supportive candle in this general vicinity is probably going to be a buying opportunity, but we also recognize that you are going to have to be very careful and be able to deal with volatility going forward.
EU Preview: Chasing Inflation Mirage Less than two weeks to go and President Mario Draghi and his pals at the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to show some evidence that their current larger-than-life reputation is well deserved.
Their signature stimulus program to bring prices in the euro zone closer to the ECB's "just below 2%" inflation target has been in play for more than a year. Actually, their monetary policies - or easing experiments - have been in play for over the past several years since the financial crisis hit.
Low inflation
Economic growth in the euro area is tepid at best and inflation is either almost non-existent or too low for comfort. The big three of global economics, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), all downgraded their growth forecasts for 2016. A new recession could send the euro zone's economy deeper into the abyss of deflation, bringing it under severe strain, if not implosion. Unfortunately, the macroeconomic data due for release next week are not very promising.
On Monday, Eurostat will reveal its February inflation data estimate for the single currency bloc and consumer prices are projected to register only a miniscule 0.1% gain measured year-on-year, below the 0.3% seen in January. On average European Union annual inflation was 0.2% in January and some countries are already struggling with deflation.
On Wednesday, January producer prices of industrial products in the euro region are due for release. They are expected to remain negative at -0.9% on a monthly basis, following a negative 0.8% result a month ago. A drop of 2.9% is seen year-on-year after a 3.0% decline in December.
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EUR/USD: On A Softer Footing Heading Into ECB: Range & Outlook - BTMU The euro has recently come back under some modest downward pressure against the US dollar lowering EUR/USD back into line with its average over the last year, notes BTMU.
"The market’s increased focus on Brexit risk and potential negative spill over impact on Europe has weighed on the euro. Leading indicators are signalling that the eurozone economy has likely lost some growth momentum early this year leaving it more vulnerable to negative shocks. The loss of growth momentum is reinforcing downside risks to the outlook for inflation arguing in favour of more aggressive ECB monetary easing at their upcoming meeting on the 10th March. The euro is likely to continue trading on a softer footing heading into the meeting," BTMU argues.
BTMU is bearish on EUR/USD at current levels seeing the pair trading in 1.08-1.12 range in the near-term.