How to detect sideways markets - page 2

 

It's very simple. Great traders say, the best way to know what the market is doing is just to look at it. By looking at it, you'll see if it's going up, or down, or sideways. it's that simple.

 

Interesting indicator. What is it? (Stage3_VCycles)

 

Pava, could you share this indicator? Looks really good.

 
vicky.a.:
Pava, could you share this indicator? Looks really good.

You can download from here:

FX Stage Trading System - Forex Strategies - Forex Resources - Forex Trading-free forex trading signals and FX Forecast

I happened to be looking into this too as it looks interesting.

It's EX4 sadly so no way to know whats's really going on on the inside. But it seems to be looking for an almost-fixed length cycle varying by slight periods. Naturally, as you can see in the picture, alike all cycle indicators, signals dont go well during trending periods, so be careful.

Yours sincerely,

Wintersky

 
wintersky111:
You can download from here:

FX Stage Trading System - Forex Strategies - Forex Resources - Forex Trading-free forex trading signals and FX Forecast

I happened to be looking into this too as it looks interesting.

It's EX4 sadly so no way to know whats's really going on on the inside. But it seems to be looking for an almost-fixed length cycle varying by slight periods. Naturally, as you can see in the picture, alike all cycle indicators, signals dont go well during trending periods, so be careful.

Yours sincerely,

Wintersky

Wintersky

Volumes (ticks) are always cyclical (especially when you look at the 1 hour chart). It is simply the nature of the market : Asian session is low, then comes London session and then it ends with US session. You can see those cycles on a simple chart too if you turn the volumes on chart visible

Those are probably something similar to this : https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/179807/page16

Some more info on Marney volume indicators you can find here : Marney Indicators

 

wintersky & vicky...it is simple ATR with different periods as much as I understand...

 
mladen:
Wintersky

Volumes (ticks) are always cyclical (especially when you look at the 1 hour chart). It is simply the nature of the market : Asian session is low, then comes London session and then it ends with US session. You can see those cycles on a simple chart too if you turn the volumes on chart visible

Those are probably something similar to this : https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/179807/page16

Some more info on Marney volume indicators you can find here : Marney Indicators

Mladen,

Although we are refering to the same thing, i would like to think of what you're refering to as volatility/volume structure persistency. Indeed, it is undeniable there are clear volatility differences between different trading sessions. & what's interesting is that the "volatility cycles" exist on the high frequency tmeframes even 5 Min etc when you put the ATR there interestingly, as i found out some years ago when i first saw it.

Thanks for refering the links still mladen :-)

Yours sincerely,

Wintersky

 
Pava:
wintersky & vicky...it is simple ATR with different periods as much as I understand...

Probably so Pava. It is all still based on the same old stuff since one cant escape the age-old OHLC parameters and the usual volatility construction, though some will take tick volume as a possible proxy too in an alternate manner. In any case, it was established in some papers that range-based estimators of volatility is better than close-to-close volatility estimators. Perhaps this is due to the sub-sampling data loss due to usage of only the close and open, ignoring the other 2 parts. Volatility as is, will probability be the most studied, least-understood & most mystifying creature in the financial markets. Non-stationary conditions will still be ever-present & were it not so, there would be strong-form efficient markets. Transforming data into bounded fixed boundaries to manage the issue is one way, but im looking at a simple way by just do a very low boundary volatility limit for non-trade conditions for an objective solution although we can all tell when the markets are totally flat (during major market sessions that is).

On a side note, i've been looking lately at directional persistency, "Deviations" posted by Mladen, the kurtosis part that is. Very interesting that is: look at the peaks on the kurtosis and compare them to 3X ADX and Hurst Difference by Jppoton, all of which show local maximums/minimums. I have not taken a deeper look at the images yet, but the peaks should be a good initial point to start having exits from a visual approach. Though it could be good if we could find a way to do this in a more objective way.

As Warren Buffet said before to the effect, the use of more complicated mathematics doesnt mean we can have a better solution to the problem. But at least, it is good to be open-minded and be progressive & keep learning/moving ahead, even though we already have alot of good methods and theories already available to us

Yours sincerely,

Wintersky

 

from my experience Buffet is partially right...simple mathematics one logical level higher:)

 
ituglobal:
It's very simple. Great traders say, the best way to know what the market is doing is just to look at it. By looking at it, you'll see if it's going up, or down, or sideways. it's that simple.

Yes, I think that is the best way to identify what the market does. The charts will tell you what you need to know.

Reason: