Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com - page 3
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VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS
14 February 2013: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments MAYZUS)
15 FEBRUARY 2013: YEN FIRM WAITING G-20 SIGNALS
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
The Japanese Nikkei fell 1,5% as the Yen firmed against the USD and Euro prior to a crucial G-20 meeting today. The strong appreciation of Yen since last December has caught worldwide attention as government and bank officials from the 20 most influential countries meet in Moscow. USD/JPY dropped from its peak level of 94,65 on Monday and trades at 92,25. JPY has also gained ground against the Euro. Data published yesterday, show that the Euro zone at the end of 2012 was slipping ever deeper into recession.
The looming currency war and recessionary pressure seen most clearly in Western Europe, have focused investor’s attention back on concerns about Europe’s fundamentals. The optimism which created a strong stock market rally at the end of and the beginning of this year, seems most likely to fade away as attention turns back to the weak economic growth especially in the Euro zone. Nothing much is expected to come out of the G-20 meeting. The most likely result is that the leading powers agree to disagree on where to go from here.
The Euro fell to a two weeks low against the dollar trading at 1.3350. Economic output in the 17-country euro zone fell 0,6% in the last quarter of 2012, the steepest decline since 2009 and far higher than the forecast. These results would most likely trigger a new discussion on austerity. The possibility of negative deposit rates in the euro zone also weighed in on the Euro. The pullback in the Euro lifted the dollar index, DXY, to a one month high at 80,621.
Merger activity helped the Wall Street indexes higher yesterday. Heinz shares jumped 20 % when Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway declared its intention to buy the food company. A small fall in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits, also supported the market which has hovered at the same levels for the last two weeks. There is no clear upside trigger. The British pound is still struggling and trades close to 11,55 against the USD. Precious metals are falling. Oil prices are still high, but have lost ground over the last trading hours.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS
15 February 2013: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments MAYZUS)
18 FEBRUARY 2013: YEN PLUNGES WITH GBP UNDER PRESSURE
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
The yen continues to plunge after the G-20 meeting avoided direct criticism of Japan’s aggressive reflation plan which has seen a 20% depreciation in the relation between USD and JPY over the last couple of months. The G-20 opted not to single Tokyo out, but committed its members to refrain from competitive devaluations. Monetary policies should only be directed at price stability and growth. Japan saw the decision as a green light to pursue its expansionary policies.
The dollar soared 0,7 percent to 94,17 inching closer to 94,465 reached last Monday. This is the highest level seen on Yen since May 2010. Euro/JPY traded at 125,51 close to the peak on 127,71 touched on February 6. EURO/USD is at 1.3334, stabilizing on the same level before the end of last week. The British Pound (GBP) trades at 1,5489 against the dollar close to the bottom level from last week.
The weak yen had a positive influence on Japanese stocks. The Nikkei average 225 jumped 2,3% with exporters and banks being the big winners. Japan is waiting the appointment of a new Governor of Bank of Japan (BOJ). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s candidate, Toshiro Muto, is expected to intensify stimulus to energize the economy. The Asia Pacific, MSCI-index eased back 0,2% after reaching a 18-1/2-month high on Friday. Australian shares AXJO rose 0,5%. Markets in China and Taiwan have opened again after one week holiday.
Demand for commodities are expected to be in focus as China returns to market. Policymakers in Washington are discussing a package of budget cuts to kick in on March 1st. Such austerity measures will probably have a negative impact on US growth. Crude prices are marginally down. Brent trades at USD 117,82 a barrel. Gold has rebounded from a six month low and trades at 1612 on bargain hunting and Chinese buying of physical gold after the Lunar New Year.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS
18 February 2013: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments MAYZUS)
19 FEBRUARY 2013: NO CURRENCY WAR, DRAGHI CLAIMS
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
In the aftermath of the G-20 meeting in Moscow leading central bankers along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have strongly dismissed that there is a currency war. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tried his best to take the heat of the debate, talking to European lawmakers in Brussels yesterday; ECB is closely following the strength of the Euro, but here is no currency war, Draghi claimed.
He admitted, however, that Euro’s exchange rate is important for growth and inflation in the euro zone. He feared that inflation may be pulled down, too, far. The exchange rate’s impact on inflation is closely watched. In its statement Saturday G-20 stated that there are none competitive devaluations between leading economic powers. Japan escaped open criticism for its expansive policies. Along with the US Japan has been under fire for conducting loose monetary policies.
Draghi stressed that the exchange rate movements were not explicitly targeted against competitors. They are mainly results of macroeconomic policies to boost domestic economies. Japan is trying to create growth and turn decade’s stagnation around. Draghi demonstrated understanding for such moves, but urged on the other hand world partners to exercise a very, very strong verbal discipline.
Whether such verbal constraint would work is early to say. But over the last 24 hours at least currency fluctuations have been minimal. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3354. USD/JPY is hovering below 94 and USD/GDP, another big loser over the last days, stays flat at 1.5475. There are small changes in oil and commodity prices. Stock markets in US was closed yesterday due to George Washington ’s Birthday. Asian shares barely moved. The Japanese Nikkei fell 0,5% eyeing appointment of a new BOJ director and risks in the euro zone.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
20 FEBRUARY 2013: MERGERS KEEP US-STOCKS HIGH
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
Both Dow Industrial and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained during yesterday’s session, and closed near all-time highs. Dow tipped over the 14 000 mark and ended at 14 035. The technology index, Nasdaq, was up 0,68%. A surge in mergers have stimulated market activity. There have lately been several acquisitions in a capital strong market. Fourth quarter earnings for S&P rose 5,6%. Tuesday it was rumored that the second biggest office retailer, Office Depot, was in merger talks with a smaller rival.
Asian stocks rose to its highest level since August 2011 on improved global economic outlook and increased risk appetite. The South East Asian MSCI-index added 0,7% and rose for a third day in row spurred by a strong technology sector. Corporate earnings have been generally positive. A shift from defensive to cyclical stocks have also helped stock markets. Australian stocks continue to rise on better commodity perspectives.
The Japanese yen regained some ground, but remained jittery. USD/JPY was swinging in a narrow range between 93,50 and 94 on concerns whether Japan may be able to pursue its strong advocated reflationary policies. The one week delay in the appointment of a new Governor for Bank of Japan, has also raised concerns. The Euro has gained ground both against yen and USD. Euro/USD trades again above 1.34.
British Sterling (GBP) is under continuous pressure. GBP lunged to a seven-month low at 1.5414 yesterday. USD/GDP trades at 1.5444. The records from the last meeting in Bank of England (BOE) are expected to be released later in the week. It is said that the records contain willingness to higher inflation and monetary easing. This comes among speculation that United Kingdom soon could lose its triple A-rating.
The trend in the commodity markets is positive. Copper is up. US crude steadied at USD 96,70 a barrel. Brent eased 0,2% to 117,34. Precious metals are under strong downward pressure after one of the leading market makers, George Soros, last week sold substantial qualities of gold.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
21 FEBRUARY 2013: FED MINUTES SCARE MARKETS
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
Global markets turned upside down and brought the dollar back in the driver’s seat as a number of US Federal Reserve (FED) officials urged to slow down or stop buying of bonds (Q4). The minutes from last month’s meeting reveal that FED-members want to stop the buy bonding before the program’s effectiveness has been fully tested.
The prospect of a halt in bond buying sent stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 index suffered its steepest decline since November. Investors were split and bewildered whether FED doves, eager to spur growth; or more cautious colleagues were in command. The ambitious 6,5% unemployment target originally set by FED seems at risk. The new development has turned markets extremely nervous and volatile. What Wall Street wants is an absolute sign that FED will continue with bond buying for the indefinite future.
The dollar skyrocketed after the minutes were published and gold and silver prices fell to its lowest level since July. Simultaneously it was rumored that a major hedge fund has liquidated large commodity positions. London copper fell to its lowest level in two months. Asian stock markets also tumbled as oil prices fell. Brent crude is down USD 2 a barrel. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks fell 1,3% after weeks shining.
One of the hardest hit currencies were once again Sterling Pound (GBP) which continues to slide. During the week USD/GBP is down from 1.5475 to close to 1.52. Euro/USD has dropped to 1.3250. USD/JPY, both currencies regarded as “safe havens” when markets are volatile, traded marginally higher at 93.55.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
22 FEBRUARY 2013: WEAK DATA SUPPORT CONTINUED EASING
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
Global markets are still bewildered and confused as to further direction after the steep plunge Wednesday. Asia is marginally up in morning trade. Yesterday’s increase in jobless claims, weak factory activity and consumer data were a stark reminder on the real health of the US economy. It seems, however, overly optimistic to give up bond buying and monetary easing. Federal Reserve’s (FED) published January meeting records, turned markets upside down and raised questions whether these policies will be terminated earlier than planned.
The new data presented convincing arguments in favor of continued monetary easing. FED is currently buying USD 85 billion in bonds monthly. It has earlier stated that these purchases are going to continue until the labor market improves substantially. 6,5% unemployment has been set as a target. FED records demonstrates that its members are increasingly divided over the wisdom of these policies. The “Doves” want to go on with monetary easing. The traditionalist don’t. This division rattles global markets.
Jobless claims increased last week with 20 000 as consumer prices rose 1,6% and business activity index plunged. These numbers make it necessary for FED to think twice before giving up on the growth stimulus policies. Commodities and precious metals which along with stocks were big losers on Wednesday, have recovered as a result of technical corrections after the steep fall earlier in the week. Gold was especially strong hit and lost its shine as safe haven. Gold is trading 0,5% up at 1582. Oil prices have stabilized with technical graphs still pointing down.
USD continues to gain ground, but slower than yesterday. Euro/USD trades at 1.3216. USD/JPY is flat on 93,3075. The Scandinavian krones have lost substantially against the USD during the week. USD/NOK trades at 5,66 compared with a low on 5,43 earlier in February. The Danish krone (DK) is for the first time in weeks trading higher than the Norwegian krone (NOK).
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
25 FEBRUARY 2013: MOODY’S REDUCED A RATING OF GREAT BRITAIN WITH AAA TO AA1
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments
The trading session on Friday has passed more positively at the stock exchanges of the USA and Europe comparing to the days before. Investors returned to purchases, without having paid attention to statements of European Commission which reduced the forecast on growth of world gross domestic product in 2013 from 3,3% to 3,2%. Thus figures across Spain (-1,4% at a budget deficit on 6,7% from GDP), Italy (-1% at 2,1%), Portugal (-1.9% at 4,9%) really depress. However, this news didn't confuse investors, and the European indexes FTSE (+0,7%), DAX (+1,03%), CAC (+2,25%), MIB (+1,4%) carried out all day in "a green zone" and finished the session of a steady growth.
The American indicators: Dow Jones +0,86%, S&P +0,88% and NASDAQ +0,97% also finished week with a rebound, without looking neither at inconsistent information from Europe, nor on rising to the USA "the fiscal cliff" to which there is only a week.
Statistics from China added a negative sentiment in the markets this morning, where the PMI index from HSBC, in February sharply decreased from the maximum reached in last month for 2 years, but remained above important level of 50 points. Thus Asian indexes began new week in "a green zone", and NIKKEI arranged the next rally for 2% on news about planned appointment to the post of the head of Bank of Japan H. Kuroda, the known supporter of active stimulation of economy.
The situation in world economy still does not show a lot of optimism. The news coming from Moody's published in the night from Friday to Saturday became a clear proof of it. The agency reduced a rating of Great Britain with AAA to AA1. The reason of this decision of Moody's called weakness of the British economy which, according to agency, will keep sluggish growth rates at least till 2016.
Oil, however, moderately becomes cheaper today under pressure of a negative. Brent drifts next to a level 114.24, adding 0.12% and WTI is stable on 93.209. EUR/USD pair is traded on a 1.3216 this morning.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd