Risk rally to continue after Greek Elections

 

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We expect risk rally to continue after the positive developments out of Greece. From a trade perspective we like shorting JPY instead of USD. We are already long USD/JPY from 78.80. We will be looking to go long AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY on pullbacks. The analysis of these pairs is as follows,

USD/JPY: The pair found support ahead of the 61.8% retracement level of the recent rise. We expect that a secondary low may be in place and any pullbacks should be seen as buying opportunities with targets of 80.60 at a minimum. Stops can be placed on a close below 78.50.

AUD/JPY: The pair has broken above its triangle consolidation and looks set to move higher. We will be looking to go long on pullbacks to the 79.50 region with targets of 82.50. Stops can be placed below 78.80.

NZD/JPY: We will be looking to buy pullbacks to 62.50 with targets of 64. Stops can be placed on a close below 61.80

To manage risk it is advisable to take positions in only one or two of these pairs and not over leverage your positions. Good luck trading.

 

Risk Sell off to continue this week

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The disappointing NFP numbers caused reversals in risk at critical technical levels as highlighted in last week’s trade plan. We will expect risk sell off to continue this week and will be looking to sell any rallies is risk. Remember that we at already long and in the money on USD/CAD and USD/JPY from last week. We are looking at the following pairs for additional trading opportunities this week.

USD/CAD: This pair found support at the 50% retracement level of the recent rise and parallel channel bottom near the 1.010 levels. We took a long position earlier this week with stops below the lows at 1.01 and targets near the top of the parallel channel at 1.03.

GBP/NZD: This pair is potentially setting up an inverted head and shoulder reversal pattern on the charts. The pair has retraced over 1500 pips without any pullbacks. In case this pair does complete the reversal pattern it may lead to a more significant pullback. We will be looking to buy a break and retest of the neckline with minimum targets of 1.96.

NZD/USD: This pair reversed from the declining trend line that has guided the pair lower from the 0.8450 level. The RSI is also showing divergence indication that a top may be in place. A break below the shorter term rising trend line should the push the pair lower to 0.7840 level at a minimum with 0.7650 as the next area of support.

Good luck trading.

 

Expecting Additional AUD Weakness this week.

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The risk selloff last week reversed after the strong Chinese GDP. We look at AUD pairs for potential trades next week. The patterns of most AUD pairs remain bearish forcing us to believe that the selloff in risk may continue next week. We specifically look at the following pairs,

AUD/USD: This pair has broken below the rising trend line that had guided the pair higher from the 0.9580 level. The pair is currently retesting the broken trend line which should now act as resistance. We will be looking to short this pair on failure of this retest with stops above the 1.0282 level and targets of 1.0150 and 1.0050.

AUD/NZD: This pair has been consolidating in a triangle pattern on the weekly charts. The pair is approaching the top of the declining channel around the 1.2950 region. We will be looking to sell a test and failure of the pair around that indicated level. Stops for the trade can initially be placed above the 1.3050 level with targets close to the 1.2750 and 1.2550.

GBP/AUD: This pair is testing its declining trend line and horizontal resistance in the 1.5250-1.530 region. A failure at these levels should push the pair back to the 1.50 region. A break above the resistance zone on the other hand should push the pair higher towards 1.55. Our bias remains bearish risk and we will be looking for a break above the specified resistance zone.

Reason: