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Technical Analysis & Market outlook by ACFX 20/12/11
Currencies
EUR/USD The euro traded 0.5 percent from an 11-month low before Spain sells securities and the release of a German report forecast to show deteriorating business confidence in Europe’s largest economy. The euro traded at $1.3014 as of 6:31 a.m. in London from $1.2998 in New York yesterday, after falling as low as $1.2946 on Dec. 14.
USD/CAD Canada’s dollar swung between gains and losses versus its U.S. counterpart as crude oil and stocks reversed earlier advances, muddying the outlook for currencies tied to growth. Canada’s currency was little changed at C$1.0389 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto.
AUD/USD The Australian dollar traded 0.4 percent from a three-week low before the Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes today of its December meeting when it cut interest rates for the second-straight month. The Australian dollar was little changed at 99.01 U.S. cents at 10:16 a.m. in Sydney from 98.96 cents yesterday in New York, when it tumbled 0.9 percent
Commodities Gold climbed, trimming the first quarterly decline since 2008, as the recent drop to the lowest level in almost three months lured buyers, tempering the effect of a stronger dollar. Immediate-delivery bullion rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1,601.70 an ounce, and traded at $1,599.20 at 2:43 p.m. in Singapore.
Oil rose for a second day in New York on forecasts that U.S. crude stockpiles declined for a second week and speculation that further sanctions against Iran will curb supply from OPEC’s second-largest producer. Crude for January delivery climbed as much as 70 cents to $94.58 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
ACFX Market outlook and Technical Analysis
December 21th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day
Forecast Previous
USD 13:30 (GMT) Core Retails Sales 0.2% 0.3%
USD 15:00 (GMT) Existing Home Sales 5.04M 4.97M
USD 15:00 (GMT) Crude Oil inventories-2.8M -1.9M
Currencies
EUR/USD The 17-nation currency advanced toward a one-week high against the dollar after Spain’s borrowing costs fell yesterday when the country sold more than its maximum target of bills.
The euro rose 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3114 at 12:39 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday in New York, when it touched $1.3132, the strongest since Dec. 13.
USD/CAD The Canadian dollar increased the most in December against its U.S. counterpart as a rally in crude oil and stocks eased risk aversion.
The loonie appreciated 0.9 percent to C$1.0298 per U.S. dollar by 5 p.m. Toronto time. It rose as much as 1.2 percent, the most on an intraday basis since Nov. 30.
AUD/USD New Zealand dollar reached one-week high as Asian equities extended a global stocks rally, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
The Australian dollar touched $1.0158, the most since Dec. 13, before trading at $1.0157 at 5:21 p.m. in Sydney, 0.8 percent above yesterday’s close in New York.
Commodities
Gold prices rose Wednesday, as investors ditched the metal's traditional hedge, the dollar, and set out in search for riskier assets, including stocks, currencies and precious metals.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,624.45 a troy ounce in early Asian trading Wednesday, up 0 42%..
Oil climbed for a third day in New York as investors bet that fuel demand may increase amid signs of an economic recovery and declining stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.
Crude for February delivery rose as much as $1.20 to $98.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Technical Analysis & Market outlook by ACFX December 29th, 2011
Important Financial Indicators of the day Forecast Previous
USD 13:30 (GMT) Unemployment Claims 372k 364k
USD 15:00 ( GMT) Pending Home Sales 1.7% 10.4%
USD 16:00 ( GMT) Crude Oil Inventories -2.9M -10.6M
Currencies EUR/USD The euro dropped against most major peers after the ECB said yesterday its balance sheet soared to a record after last week’s lending to banks in the region. The shared currency bought $1.2929 from $1.2941, after falling to as low as $1.2888, the weakest since Jan. 10.
USD/CAD The Canadian dollar fell as stocks dropped after the European Central Bank’s balance sheet soared to a record on lending to the region’s banks, adding to concern fiscal turmoil will slow growth. The Canadian currency, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, dropped 0.6 percent to C$1.0244 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. Toronto time.
AUD/USD The Australian dollar traded 0.1 percent from a one-week low against the greenback as concern increased that Europe’s debt crisis may deepen, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. The Australian dollar traded at $1.0086 at 10:40 a.m. in Sydney from $1.0094 yesterday in New York, when it touched $1.0071, the lowest since Dec. 22
BLOG.ACFX.COM
Euro hits decade low vs yen, more falls likely
LONDON: The euro fell to a decade low versus the Japanese yen on Monday with more falls expected as concerns about the financing needs of highly indebted euro zone countries plagued the shared currency into the new calendar year.
The euro fell as low as 98.71 yen on the EBS trading platform in early Asian trade, its lowest since late 2000, extending falls on Friday when it broke below 100 yen to finish the year down around 8 percent.
It recovered to trade flat for the day at 99.60 yen in Europe, with liquidity thin because most Asian markets as well as the UK and U.S. were closed for New Year holidays. Versus the dollar, the euro was steady at $1.2947, less than a cent above its 2011 low of $1.2858 hit last week.
Worries about high sovereign debt levels and a lack of policy solutions to the region's 2-year-old debt crisis were expected to push the euro lower in the coming weeks and months.
However, the slide may be limited by periodic short-covering rallies as investors trim hefty bets against the currency, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on Friday showing short euro positions swelled to a record high in the latest week.
"There's still a lot of pressure on the euro due to concerns about the refinancing needs of some euro zone countries in the first quarter," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of currency research at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.
"This is driving many to safer assets and currencies, like the Japanese yen."
However, he said the substantial number of short euro positions could limit the euro's falls, potentially enabling it to rebound back above $1.30 versus the dollar, especially if U.S. ISM and jobs data this week point to an improving U.S. economy.
Nevertheless, in the absence of a comprehensive European policy response to the debt crisis, the euro could test its 2010 low of $1.1876 this year, some traders said, while support was highlighted around $1.2600, the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's 2010-2011 rally.
Policymakers marked the 10th anniversary on Sunday of the introduction of euro notes and coins by urging governments to save and consolidate to overcome their debt crises, while warning 2012 would be harder than 2011.
Concerns about the massive task facing European leaders as they struggle to contain the region's debt crisis were highlighted as Spain's new government warned last week its 2011 budget deficit would be larger than expected.
A deteriorating euro zone economy will also worry investors, with many anticipating a recession in the region. A survey on Monday showed euro zone manufacturing activity declined for a fifth consecutive month in December.
"We believe that the generally dire euro zone purchasing manufacturers surveys provide significant support to the case for the ECB to cut interest rates again in the early months of 2012, especially as they show essentially muted inflationary pressures," said Howard Archer, chief UK and Europe economist at IHS Global Insight.
DEBT AUCTIONS EYED Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, remains at the centre of the debt crisis, and its borrowing needs could overwhelm the bloc's financial defences if it were forced to seek an international bailout.