Forex Books - page 127

 
Technical trading rules are extensively used by foreign exchange (forex) traders. Despite the essential need to the forex diversification, it is not addressed by academic researches to generate forex portfolio trading systems based on technical indices. This paper aims to develop an interpretable and accurate Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) system for forex portfolio trading. The system uses technical indices of the forex rates and delivers the preferred portfolio composition among multiple foreign currencies. The proposed model considers the transaction cost and trading risk, which are the two important factors in the high frequency trading strategies. The proposed model was implemented to develop a trading system for portfolio trading among the five of the most traded currencies in the Tehran forex market. Four experiments were designed to examine the performance of the proposed model in different market trends, in terms of the portfolio return and risk adjusted return.According to the experimental results, the proposed model is able to extract profitable portfolio trading systems in this market, especially when the market is in the downward trend.

 
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The research aimed to measure the accuracy and combination of Classic and Modern Technical Analysis. PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA)’s stock in two periods is the sample of research. Technical analysis was used to predict stock prices by observing changes in historical share price. Practically, technical analysis is divided into Classic Technical and Modern. Research was conducted by library study and using a computer software. Microsft Excel was used for the simulation and Chart Nexus for analyzing Modern Technical Analysis. The research period started in January 1, 2013 until December 31, 2013 and January 1, 2014 until December 31, 2014. The Classic Technical Analysis used Support, Resistance, Trendline, and Flag Patern. Meanwhile for Modern Technical Analysis used Moving Average, Stochastic, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The Classical Technical Analysis gave less result than Modern Technical Analysis. The classical give 14 investment decisions in two periods. The average return of Classical Technical is 15,50%. Meanwhile the Modern Technical Analysis gave 18 investment decisions in two periods. The average return of Modern Technical is 18,14%. Combining Classic Technical Analysis and Modern Technical Analysis gave 20 investment decisions with the average rate of return 20,41%.
 
In these days, trading automation is one of the major topics in the field of financial research. Buy and sell are the key rule to an automated trading system which is possible to generate by various technical indicators in Forex. Benefits and disadvantages of each indicators, has its own. Regarding to our first research result which was based on P-sar indicator and published in the IIAFC conference[1]. In this paper, we will focus on the MACD indicator for four currencies namely EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY individually to identify effectiveness of the indicator regarding to the amount of profit generated, using hourly data of market stretch from January 2001 to December 2010. Virtual Historical Trading Software (VHTS) is developed for the purpose of computing the indicator based on its original formulas and interpretations; for applying the assumptions; for trading based on buy and sell signals generated by the MACD indicator.
 
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"Forex Trading Using Intermarket Analysis: Discovering Hidden Market Relationships That Provide Early Clues for Price Direction" by Louis B. Mendelsohn : the book

This book explores the application of intermarket analysis to the foreign exchange market, the world’s largest and most widely traded financial market. Intermarket analysis helps traders identify and anticipate changes in trend direction and prices due to influences of other related markets as financial markets have become interconnected and interdependent in today’s global economy.

Contents

FOREWORD

PREFACE

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1. WHAT IS FOREX?

If you have traveled internationally, you may already know something about the forex market, today’s hottest marketplace. Discover why you might want to trade forex.

Chapter 2. THE FOREX MARKETPLACE

The forex market is the world’s largest marketplace, dwarfing all other markets combined. See how forex grew so large and how you can participate.

Chapter 3. FUNDAMEN TALS AND FOREX

Forex traders can get plenty of information, sometimes so much that it can be hard to sift through it all. Here are some reports a forex trader needs to consider.

Chapter 4. APPLYING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TO FOREX

With fundamental information overwhelming, many forex traders analyze price action in charts. Chart patterns and indicators have shortcomings, but see how predictive moving averages can help with market forecasting.

Chapter 5. INTERMARKET ANALYSIS OF FOREX MARKETS

What happens in one market is influenced by what happens in a number of related markets. Discover why single-market analysis should give way to intermarket analysis in today’s global marketplace, especially in forex markets, which are ideally suited for this type of analysis.

Chapter 6. USING NEURAL NETWORKS TO ANALY ZE FOREX

With so many fundamentals and so much influence from related markets, it’s hard to see all the patterns and relationships in the forex market. Find out how neural networks can uncover hidden patterns in data and select the best to make short-term market forecasts.

Chapter 7. TECHNICAL TACTICS FOR TRADING FOREX

Once you understand how the forex market works and the basics of technical analysis, you are ready to put theory into practice. Here are a few more practical tips and chart examples to help you apply your knowledge to actual trading.

Chapter 8. WAVE OF THE FUTURE: SYNERGISTIC MARKET ANALYSIS

Using only one approach to trade no longer works in today’s global markets. Successful trading requires the synthesis of technical, intermarket and fundamental approaches.

TRADING RESOURCE GUIDE

ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND MARKET TECHNOLOGIES, LLC
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In these days, trading automation is one of the major topics in the field of financial research. Buy and sell are the key rule to an automated trading system which is possible to generate by various technical indicators in Forex (Foreign Exchange) market. Each indicator has its advantages and disadvantages. The evaluation is based on application of the Parabolic-SAR indicator for four currencies namely EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY individually to identify effectiveness of the indicator regarding to the amount of profit generated, using hourly data of market stretch from January 2001 to December 2010. Virtual Historical Trading Software (VHTS) is developed for the purpose of computing the indicator based on its original formulas and interpretations; for applying the assumptions; for trading based on buy and sell signals generated by the Parabolic SAR (P-SAR) indicator. 1. Introduction Trading in foreign currencies began in 1973 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement under which gold held by central banks underpinned currency values. Forex is a free market in which currency prices are based on supply of and demand for a particular currency [1]. The Forex market has several distinct advantages over other financial markets, such as: operation on a 24-hour basis 5 days a week, no fixed location, and an over-the-counter market. Besides, Forex market currently generates a daily volume of over USD 3.2 trillion thereby making it the largest financial market [2]. Any currency can be traded as long as there is no restriction by central banks issuing the currencies [3]. Ding et al. (2010) added that rapid technological changes to increase efficiency in Forex transactions have enabled the market to grow at a tremendous pace by reducing entry and transaction costs as well as overcoming geographical limitations.



 
This paper shows an evolutionary algorithm application to generate profitable strategies to trade futures contracts on foreign exchange market (Forex). Strategy model in approach is based on two decision trees, responsible for taking the decisions of opening long or short positions on Euro/US Dollar currency pair. Trees take into consideration only technical analysis indicators, which are connected by logic operators to identify border values of these indicators for taking profitable decision(s). We have tested the efficiency of presented approach on learning and test time-frames of various characteristics.

 

Technical trading rules are extensively used by foreign exchange (forex) traders. Despite the essential need to the forex diversification, it is not addressed by academic researches to generate forex portfolio trading systems based on technical indices. This paper aims to develop an interpretable and accurate Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) system for forex portfolio trading. The system uses technical indices of the forex rates and delivers the preferred portfolio composition among multiple foreign currencies. The proposed model considers the transaction cost and trading risk, which are the two important factors in the high frequency trading strategies. The proposed model was implemented to develop a trading system for portfolio trading among the five of the most traded currencies in the Tehran forex market. Four experiments were designed to examine the performance of the proposed model in different market trends, in terms of the portfolio return and risk adjusted return.According to the experimental results, the proposed model is able to extract profitable portfolio trading systems in this market, especially when the market is in the downward trend.



 
In this paper, we examine institutional trading surrounding corporate news by combining a comprehensive database of news releases for all U.S. firms during 2000 to 2010 with a high-frequency database of institutional trades. We find that institutions trade on the news tone only on the news release day. This news-trading pattern is more pronounced for news related to firm fundamentals, and with a less ambiguous content. News-driven institutional trades result in abnormal returns during the following four weeks. Our results suggest that the trading advantage of institutional investors stems from their ability to process information in a very timely manner.
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