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Elie Ayache, "The Blank Swan: The End of Probability" : the book
Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 - you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework.
The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets - presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events - white and black swans alike -, i.e. the very category of prediction.
In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event, from Henri Bergson, to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance.
This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything, derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. Also, the book establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market.Bill Poulos - Forex Profit Accelerator Course | 1.13 GB
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Forex Profit Accelerator builds upon his prior systems, brining not just one, but four trading methods to the foreign currency exchange market. This has been a much needed course in the retail Forex market, as there have been an increasing number of new traders opening accounts and quickly learning that it is very easy to lose money if you do not know how to approach trading in this highly leveraged environment.
Discovering Foreign Currency Exchange Trading
You can learn the basics of the foreign exchange market from numerous resources. Many of those resources will cost you little or no money, but they will not teach you how to actually trade profitably.
Complicating matters is the fact that Forex has no organized exchange, but operates as a network of banks and other financial houses. Trades are executed over a computer network or even through telephone calls. With no regulation in place, finding a reputable and reliable Forex broker is imperative.
The foreign exchange environment is very different from what many traders are accustomed to seeing. This is a new environment, but if approached with an appropriate level of discretion backed up by a good understanding of how to approach trading it can be a very lucrative place.
The place to begin is to educate yourself about how the foreign exchange market operates. As mentioned, much of this information can be acquired from inexpensive resources. Once you understand that basics behind Forex, you must then develop a method for trading this market. This typically involves a very long development process for those who are inclined to tackle the task on their own, or, alternatively, searching out a reputable trading school.
Introducing Forex Profit Accelerator
Bill Poulos has compiled an affordable home study course. When it arrives at your doorstep, you will find several CD-Roms and a three-ring binder. The course is primarily delivered through video presentations, consisting of six modules. A seventh bonus module has been included for good measure.
Each module addresses a distinct aspect of Forex and each of the four trading systems provided as part of the course. The printed materials reinforce the video presentations and include trading "blueprints" on heavy card stock. These serve as "cheat sheets" for quick and easy reference once you begin trading.
You are not left alone with these materials. Included with the purchase is one year of unlimited follow-up e-mail support, one year of follow-up monthly case study tutorials, plus Q&A webinars. All of this combined not only provides you with the material to learn how to trade, but provides the back-up support to make sure you are able to fully apply the lessons being taught.
Module 1: Foreign Exchange Background & Overview
This module consists primarily of grounding material. Bill introduces the topic of foreign exchange trading and walks you through how this market operates.
Most of the material in module one is freely available from numerous resources, but the author does provide his own unique insight and reveals a few "dirty secrets" about the Forex market.
Key elements of effective Forex trading systems are also discussed and you begin seeing examples of how a sold performing system works.
Module 2: The First Forex Trading System
Having covered the basics of Forex, the first trading system is introduced. This system is not a day-trading system. In fact, none of the systems taught in the course are day trading systems and the whole course is designed so that once you master the four trading methods you can apply them in 20 minutes per day.
Having said that, this first trading method is designed for "quick hit" moves. Trades are expected to last one or two days and achieve profits of 40 to 100 pips with very tight risk management.
Bill Poulos walks you through the specific setup conditions for this trading method and details the entry rules that serve to provide you with a high probability of success. You are also provided with rules for establishing your stop loss as well as profit exits.
There is no guess work here. You have clearly defined rules to put you into the trade, take you out of the trade if things fail to work out as you expected, and to take profits off the table.
This "quick hit" system can be traded to the upside or the downside. Bill provides you with individual instruction for trading in each direction, so as to eliminate confusion when trying to apply the system in one direction or the other.
Numerous example trades are covered, adding to the learning process and allowing you to visualize how these trades set up and play out. Not only that, but Bill Poulos also provides you with cautionary notes to keep your enthusiasm in check. He keeps you in check to avoid trading beyond the limits of the system.
Module 3: Forex Trading On A Longer Time-Frame
The first trading system lets you pull profits from the market on a 1 to 2 day time frame. This second method is designed for 1 to 3 week moves, seeking profits of 300 to 500 pips. It seeks out strong momentum moves and puts you into the trade at the most opportune time to reduce the risk of a counter trend move forcing you out of the position with a margin call.
Specific setup conditions that identify the trade opportunity are covered. Once the setup conditions are present, Bill Poulos covers the entry rules that keep you out of weak trades. Initial stops and profit exits are also detailed.
Keep in mind that once learned, these systems will be applied in about 20 minutes time each evening. Using the specific criteria, you will be able to enter positions and go about your usual day without concern for what is happening in the market. Your orders will execute to keep you out of trouble or to capture profits, while you are elsewhere. There is no need to spend the day in front of a computer.
A more sophisticated money management system is employed in this second system, as compared to the first. A staged profit exit is used so that a successful trade eliminates risk of loss while positioning you for further profitability.
This system can be traded on up-trending or down-trending stocks, in the favor of the prevailing trend. With this trading method, you ca expect several trading opportunities each year on the major currency pairs.
Of course there are drawbacks, but Dr. Joe has been trading these types of positions a long time and has learned how to manage them effectively. The bottom line is that the LEAPS give you more "bang for your buck" due to their lower cost.
Module 4: Enhancing Forex Currency Trades
The third trading method also seeks 300 to 500 pips on trades of 1 to 3 weeks duration. The strategy is entirely different than that covered in the prior module, but compliments that method. When used in combination with the prior trading method, you have a higher probability of catching major moves in the currency markets.
Like the prior two trading methods, Bill Poulos provides specific set-up criteria for identifying the trading opportunities. Combined with the trade entry rules, you are left with a very effective method of entering the market.
A stop order is used to limit losses from the moment the position is opened, with profit exits defined as of trade entry. This strategy also stages the profit exits so as to protect capital while still providing continued upside potential. These staged exits guard against premature market reversals that tend to turn profitable positions into losing positions.
Just as with the prior systems, this method provides for trading both to the upside and downside. Plenty of example trades are detailed on the videos so that you develop a solid understanding for this, as well as the other trading systems.
Module 5: Forex Trend Reversal Trades
The first trading system covered in the course seeks quick profits by trading in concert with the prevailing trend. The second and third look for larger profits over a longer period of time, also in concert with the prevailing trend. These are trend following strategies.
The fourth trading method is a counter-trend strategy, which seeks to profit from reversals in the prevailing trend. The goal is to grab 100 to 300 pips on a trend reversal using well defined setup conditions and entry rules to identify the opportunity and enter a position in the market.
Bill Poulos - Forex Time Machine course | 543 MB
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Contents of the course:
CD-ROM #1: Background & Overview (45:57 minutes)
This module covers the Forex Time Machine background and structure, what to expect, the basics of the methods that will be covered, and a whole lot more. It concludes with a lengthy review of some actual Forex charts to give you a feel for what it’s like to trade the three methods taught in the course.
Here's what you'll discover on this CD-ROM:
# The top 6 Forex pairs I recommend trading that can give you the most "bang for your buck".
# "The Dirty Forex Secret" about unreliable brokers and so-called "gurus" promising to make you rich.
# Great expectations, and what you can expect to accomplish in the course.
# Detailed trading examples that instantly immerse you in the Forex Time Machine trading experience. We dive right in even before studying the details of the method so you can get a feel for what it's like.
# An interactive quiz to test your comprehension of the materials.
CD-ROM #2: Breakout Method (77:11 minutes)
This module covers all the trading rules and examples for the Breakout Method, where the aim is to go after 5 to 10 bar swings in the markets when the market breaks out of recent congestion.
In this lesson, you will learn:
# How to look at any chart and find the setup conditions using my step-by-step formulas that will identify a potentially profitable trading opportunity.
# Where to place your entry point for any trade in order to maximize profits.
# The exact point to place your protective stop orders. Hint: It's where you DON'T expect the market to go.
# How to exit a trade and take profits quickly, while reducing your risk to ZERO as quickly as possible with my "Free Trade Strategy".
# An interactive quiz to test your comprehension of the materials.
CD-ROM #3: Momentum Method (76:48 minutes)
This module covers all the trading rules and examples for the Momentum Method, where the aim is to go after 5 to 10 bar swings with the trend, in a hot market as the trend recovers from mini corrective moves.
Here's some of what's covered in this tutorial:
# How to look at any chart and find the setup conditions using my step-by-step formulas that will identify a potentially profitable trading opportunity.
# Where to place your entry point for any trade in order to maximize profits.
# The exact point to place your protective stop orders. Hint: It's where you DON'T expect the market to go.
# How to exit a trade and take profits quickly, while reducing your risk to ZERO as quickly as possible with my "Free Trade Strategy".
# An interactive quiz to test your comprehension of the materials.Scott Andrews - Master the Gap Trades :
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George Angell - How to Day-Trade S&P 500 Futures :
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part2.rar
Thomas N. Bulkowski, "Visual Guide to Chart Patterns" : the book
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Chart Patterns is a concise and accessible visual guide to identifying, understanding, and using chart patterns to predict the direction and extent of price moves. Packed with visual learning enhancements and exercises, this innovative book helps savvy investors and professionals alike master the essential skills of chart pattern recognition. Follow along as chart pattern expert Thomas Bulkowski teaches you to recognize important peaks and valleys that form patterns—footprints of the smart money.
Nearly 200 color charts assist in providing a step-by-step approach to finding those footprints, interpreting them, and following them. Popular patterns such as head-and-shoulders, double tops and bottoms, triangles, gaps, flags, and pennants are just a few of the many patterns explored throughout the book.
For the sophisticated trader or investor, the book also provides statistical research to support the claims of pattern behavior, trading signals, and setups, in an easy to understand way.
• Discusses chart pattern identification guidelines, psychology, variations, failures, and buy and sell signals
• Covers the most popular and common chart patterns as well as lesser-known ones like throwbacks, pullbacks, and busted patterns
• Incorporates quizzes, step-by-step exercises, enhanced graphics and video tutorials to immerse the reader in the world of chart patterns
Designed for use by investors and traders, from beginners to experts looking for a practical, easy-to-use guide, comprehensive reference, Bloomberg Visual Guide to Chart Patterns provides a sophisticated introduction to the world of chart patterns.Hans-Werner Sinn, "The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs" : the book
The euro induced huge capital flows from the northern to the southern countries of the Eurozone that triggered an inflationary credit bubble in the latter, deprived them of their competitiveness, and made them vulnerable to the financial crisis that spilled over from the US in 2007 and 2008. As private capital shied away from the southern countries, the ECB helped out by providing credit from the local money-printing presses. The ECB became heavily exposed to investment risks in the process, and subsequently had to be bailed out by intergovernmental rescue operations that provided replacement credit for the ECB credit, which itself had replaced the dwindling private credit. The interventions stretched the legal strictures stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty which, in the absence of a European federal state, had granted the ECB a very limited mandate. These interventions created a path dependency that effectively made parliaments vicarious agents of the ECB's Governing Council.
This book describes what the author considers to be a dangerous political process that undermines both the market economy and democracy, without solving southern Europe's competitiveness problem. It argues that the Eurozone has to rethink its rules of conduct by limiting the role of the ECB, exiting the regime of soft budget constraints and writing off public and bank debt to help the crisis countries breathe again. At the same time, the Eurosystem should become more flexible by offering its members the option of exiting and re-entering the euro - something between the dollar and the Bretton Woods system - until it eventually turns into a federation with a strong political power centre and a uniform currency like the dollar.Dennis A. Chen, Mark Sebastian, "The Option Trader's Hedge Fund: A Business Framework for Trading Equity and Index Options" : the book
Credit Rating Agencies: Self-regulation, Statutory Regulation and Case Law Regulation in the United States and... : the book
The highly topical book examines these provisions in detail by using a doctrinal black-letter law method to assess the success of the regulators in redressing the problems identified. It also examines the US case law regulation relating to the legal liability of CRAs. The book examines whether the regulations introduced have had a deterrent effect on the actions of CRAs, whether investors are compensated for their losses, and how the regulators have dealt with the issues of conflicts of interest and an anti-competitive environment. Should liability be introduced for CRAs through changes in the law so as to compel them to issue reliable ratings and solve the current problems?
The book seeks to simplify the complex issues involved and is backed by concrete evidence; as such, it will appeal to both the well-informed and the lay general public who are interested in learning more about the role of CRAs in the sub-prime mortgage crisis and regulators’ attempts to remedy the situation. Novice readers can familiarise themselves with the legal and financial terminology used by referring to the glossary at the end of the book.Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception (ARC) by George A. Akerlof, Robert J. Shiller : the book
Phishing for Phools therefore strikes a radically new direction in economics, based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away. Akerlof and Shiller bring this idea to life through dozens of stories that show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month's bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. We are attracted, more than we know, by advertising. Our political system is distorted by money. We pay too much for gym memberships, cars, houses, and credit cards. Drug companies ingeniously market pharmaceuticals that do us little good, and sometimes are downright dangerous.
Phishing for Phools explores the central role of manipulation and deception in fascinating detail in each of these areas and many more. It thereby explains a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation. At the same time, the book tells stories of individuals who have stood against economic trickery--and how it can be reduced through greater knowledge, reform, and regulation.