Pivot Point Trend Rider
Probability of hitting R1 or S1?
I was just having a thought. . .
What is the probability that everyday either R1 or S1 will be hit.
I have not done my research but I think it is about 95%.
So another strategy I was thinking was:
Same Entry and Stop Loss Levels as above.
Take Profit is either R1 or S1.
If needed keep on reversing the trade until target is met.
Preferabally: Increase lot size every time stop loss is hit, to satisfactory cover the previous losses.
Stop trading for the day once we lose 10% of equity for the day.
I was just having a thought. . .
What is the probability that everyday either R1 or S1 will be hit.
I have not done my research but I think it is about 95%.
............................
.Hi f1trader,
First you need to realize that already many many threads were opened on pivot point lines and the camarilla lines and the murray math lines and the fibo lines and the gann lines...etc
Each individual who sticks to one of those lines has its believe that they work. But if you put them all togehter on a chart then I "believe" that a spider would not find his way back home anymore.
If you want to proof something to yourself then place pivot lines on a chart and monitor all the times that you say AAH YES I told you or DAMNED SHIT now they don't work...and you will come to a 50/50 result or that flipping a coin will help you in the very same way.
Be awere that If you are in search of a system that you have the tendency to say a lot quicker: woow looks great then to say : nope this is just plain crap.
They call it cheating on yourself....(BTW people who trade are good at this).
Friendly regards...iGoR
I sort of dont understand wot ur saying, maybe its ur english.
I have a system that WORKS. and works wonders, I will go out of my way to prove it to you.
the key
The key to make it work:
Money Management.
At one point or another it is likely to hit either S1 or R1.
After 10 stop losses, 20 or 30 < 30 stop losses extremely low possibility.
So initially risking 2% of account per trade.
We know our take profit level, so consistently keep on increasing the lot size to cover previous losses. (I know ur thinking. . .AAHH.. martingale; RUNNNN...) But we are not doubling everytime (we only double if risk reward is 1:1, but here risk reward will be about 5:1, so if initial lot size is 1.0, next will be 1.2 then 1.44, then 1.56 then 1.87 then 2.24), just accordingly increasing the lot size and reversing the trade until target is met.
Max risk per day - 10% of equity.
Likelyhood of hitting R1 and S1 in a day - 70-90% (Guaranteed over 50%).
With a $5k account, first trade will be 0.1 lots ($20) , then 0.12 ($24) then then 0.14 ($28) then 0.17 ($34) then 0.2 ($40) then 0.24 ($48) then 0.28 ($56) then 0.33 ($66) then 0.39 ($78) then 0.46 ($92) then 0.55 ($110) then 0.66 ($122) then 0.79 ($158) - $876
Lets assume in one day we hit SL 13 times (highly unlikely) then the total drawdown will be $876 before profit is hit.
I just have to go back in historical data to over last 7 years, as to what the max amount of times SL has been hit on EURUSD pair.
7 YEARS = 2451 trading days
I will analyse 50 trading days per day
So it will take me a total of 50 days.
Money Management
The key to make it work:
Money Management.
At one point or another it is likely to hit either S1 or R1.
After 10 stop losses, 20 or 30 < 30 stop losses extremely low possibility.
So initially risking 2% of account per trade.
We know our take profit level, so consistently keep on increasing the lot size to cover previous losses. (I know ur thinking. . .AAHH.. martingale; RUNNNN...) But we are not doubling everytime (we only double if risk reward is 1:1, but here risk reward will be about 5:1, so if initial lot size is 1.0, next will be 1.2 then 1.44, then 1.56 then 1.87 then 2.24), just accordingly increasing the lot size and reversing the trade until target is met.
Max risk per day - 10% of equity.
Likelyhood of hitting R1 and S1 in a day - 70-90% (Guaranteed over 50%).
With a $5k account, first trade will be 0.1 lots ($20) , then 0.12 ($24) then then 0.14 ($28) then 0.17 ($34) then 0.2 ($40) then 0.24 ($48) then 0.28 ($56) then 0.33 ($66) then 0.39 ($78) then 0.46 ($92) then 0.55 ($110) then 0.66 ($122) then 0.79 ($158) - $876
Lets assume in one day we hit SL 13 times (highly unlikely) then the total drawdown will be $876 before profit is hit.
I just have to go back in historical data to over last 7 years, as to what the max amount of times SL has been hit on EURUSD pair.
7 YEARS = 2451 trading days
I will analyse 50 trading days per day
So it will take me a total of 50 days.
Money ManagementLooking forward to hearing the results of your analysis,
Blast from the past
Hi friends,
I found this discussion here while making a bit of research...
...It was not a bad one!
f1Trader: did you manage to make that test?
Otherwise, perhaps, I can try to put together a little EA to calculate it.
Of course: as time and energies are precious, I won't make it if it was already done!
Bye
fsprea
???
Can you tell me where I get the indciator pictured in your screen shot?
Thanks
JC
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Start first trade on Sydney opening time. This is because the new pivot point levels are generally established at this time, and these are the levels followed by banks, instutional and professional traders.
1) Establish the mid pivot point level for the day.
2) Set a sell stop 15 pips below pivot line and buy stop 15 pips above pivot line.
3) Set Stop loss of 20 pips; 5 pips above pivot line for a sell order and 5 pips below pivot line for buy order: These are always your exit points regardless of whether the trade is in profit/loss.
4) If price triggers sell stop and then triggers stop-loss shortly after, set the pending order for sell stop again. Do the same for a buy stop order. Keep on doing this until a trend resumes in either direction away from the pivot.
5) Take profit as soon as price hits (or 5 pips above) pivot line.
Simple! You may experiment and adjust on the TP levels, but remember that reward should always be greater than risk and do not risk more than 2%of your account.
This can be a set and forget strategy if we can get an EA to cover point 4).
Otherwise you will have to continually monitor the trades just incase it hits stop loss.
I have attached an image for a better understanding of the strategy.
Could somebody please code an EA for this strategy?