Trade with me - page 8
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Well...
First exit is close to 1.1636.
But that's not important for me.
See. Take a look at attached picture. The projection is the level of euro insertion point back to 1999.
i must ask i have been following this for a while and you are a great trader you post many screens though and lots of them look different im curious how many strategies do you have?
Well...
First exit is close to 1.1636.
But that's not important for me.
See. Take a look at attached picture. The projection is the level of euro insertion point back to 1999.
i must ask i have been following this for a while and you are a great trader you post many screens though and lots of them look different im curious how many strategies do you have?
How many?
Well, too many in order to perform market analysis.
Two or three for pull the trigger depending on time frame and currency.
If analysis gets confused only one. If gets dark none
than sit an wait.
Time ago I had too many to jump in. Wrong!
Everyday looking for a new strategy. Everyday changing to a new one.
However, that's the way to learn. Nobody escapes to treader phases.
But I like to discuss strategies and why would fail sooner or later. That's why fundamentals are top priority for me.
By reading back a few posts you'll find something like "don't look any indicators, just sell"
Let's see.
Two years ago: Oh man, dollar is dead. China will stop to buy US bonds. this is the "go long" of our lives.
Today: Oh man, Europe is going to hell. Euro is dead and china will sell Euro reserves.
So. Hard to believe same strategy will work on both markets.
Changing a bit the subject.
Madoff program just gone! so market have to invent something new to attract naive people.
I like to read the "new" trading system.
By the moment seems the top top is High Frequency Trading Program (HFTP)
that will give you some high frequency therapy program when get your account screwed.
BTW. My best friend Bernie had some nice words to his investors on last days
An Inside Look at Bernie Madoff's Life in Prison -- New York Magazine
HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES
It finally occurs to him that he should back test some techniques and see how some of his indicators would have worked historically; he reasons that if he can do this, he would have more confidence and discipline in his trades. He begins to understand that no one (including himself) can predict the market. He starts to realize that he needs to have some confidence that the techniques he is going to use have worked in the past. He now knows that he can’t predict the market. He thinks, “All I really need to know is what the probabilities are when I put on a trade according to my rules, and I should make money.”
Our technical trader has now passed the second big initiation and begins to sense the need for trading a strategy. He realizes that there is immense value in historical strategy performance data. He purchases TradeStation and dives into learning how to design and trade strategies.
A strategy trader trades a strategy—a method of trading that uses objective entry and exit criteria that have been validated by historical testing on quantifiable data.
A strategy trader thus moves into a mode of acquiring and testing quantifiable data as it relates to historical price activity. This is a marked difference from a technical trader, who tries to correlate data to price but usually through observation and intuition, and from the discretionary trader, who doesn’t use quantifiable data at all or feels he needs to in order to make money.
It is this acquisition and use of quantifiable data, along with the software to test it, that enables the strategy trader to investigate trading techniques historically and begin to put some rational and enlightened business practices to use in his trading. It is this process that enables him to start finally making money.
Strategy traders are restricted by a set of rules. These rules make up what is known as the strategy. As a strategy trader, you will not deviate from your strategy’s rules at all, unless you have decided to use a different strategy altogether. When your strategy tells you to buy, you buy. When your strategy tells you to sell, you sell. And you buy or sell exactly how much your strategy tells you to. You read The Wall Street Journal and talk over the markets with your broker, but you don’t make trading decisions to override your strategy because of something you read or heard from your broker.
The reason you are restricted by your rules is that your rules are sound. As a strategy trader, you've spent a lot of time and research in creating those rules. Your rules have been hand-designed by you and tested and re-tested on years of historical data. This testing has given you positive results and the conviction that lets you know it’s time to take your strategy into the future. Your emotions might still fly as high and low as the market, but at least they are not causing you to make bad trading decisions.
Our strategy trader has now left behind the gurus, the hotlines, and the broker recommendations, and has stopped trying to predict which wave the market is in and how far it will go. He has purchased and learned how to use TradeStation. He is becoming knowledgeable about computers, data and technology. He has realized the value of quantifiable data and back testing, and starts to put on trades with the confidence that comes with knowing the historical track record of the same strategy for the last 10 years. He is slowly learning the business of trading.
QUANTIFIABLE DATA
One of the first things a strategy trader needs to understand is quantifiable data. This is the data that he will correlate to the market and use to develop his trading strategy. Without quantifiable data, he would be unable to trade a strategy.
Quantifiable data is measurable data. Stock and commodity prices are quantifiable, as is volume. All technical indicators that are derived from price and/or volume are quantifiable and useable in designing a strategy. Are phases of the moon quantifiable? Yes, as are the location of the planets. They occur in a regular pattern, and each occurrence is measurable and predictable. What about earnings per share or the price earnings ratio of stocks? Yes. These are also quantifiable and can be used in strategy trading.
Once you understand what quantifiable data is, it is easier to spot non-quantifiable data. Non-quantifiable data usually consists of random events that cannot be reduced to a number and that cannot be predicted. For instance, speeches by politicians are not quantifiable, although we know that they can have a profound effect on stock prices. Opinions of our broker are not quantifiable. Are earnings surprises quantifiable? No, but quarterly earnings reports are, and they usually have a significant effect on stock prices. Are weather patterns, droughts, or freezes quantifiable? No, although we know they too have a considerable effect on commodity prices, it is not possible to quantify droughts and correlate them to Soybean or Corn prices.
I did not follow that text word by word. But helped.
Every trader needs to follow his own personality, but first. It had to discover who is him.
As John Bollinger said: Give to ten people a trading system and for the next week you will have ten trading systems.
Feel Free to close Euro short trade.
There is a big TP coming from banks and funds. Partially was today, asnd maybe will continue during all week.
Meanwhile, get ready to sell Aussie, again.
Will rebound to 0.8600 level and fall.
Kiwi rebound is less. Maybe we can eat kiwis
Besides. Because this market is just having a new leader we can just trade it on intraday basis.
So. How about post post about...
Hello my dear followers
.
Adding to our gallry of personalities...
Sound familiar to you Magellan Fund words (MUTF: FMAGX)?
By invest 10.000 us dollars on 1977 (do not think on 10k from current days, it was a lot of money for that time) on 1990 you account will had 280.000
If so.
What can we say about a man who consistently achieved annual returns of 29.2%? well, a lot.
But, you know him? his name is Peter Lynch
Lynch believes that there is a 100% correlation between what happens to a company and the conduct of its shares. The catch is that this correlation does not happen in a week, maybe even in six or nine months, and that is disappointing to many investors who do not have patience and faith in his convictions.Many times it happens that the fundamentals of the company improved its shares lose value and creating investment opportunities for investors who bet on the correlation of the medium to long term.
This lack of synchronization between the price of the stock of a company and its fundamentals can be both a mistake in the valuation of the company by analysts or by a generalized decline in market.
The idea of Peter Lynch is that investor behavior is as if in a "big casino." Investors are used to not do any research or a reliance on research done by other persons, and this behavior is based on an idea of the stock market as something totally random.
To illustrate the notion of an investor who invested after doing poor research Lynch gives the example of a person who plays poker without looking at the cards in his hand: What do you think will be the outcome?
It is important to be honest with yourself and recognize if the research is carried out before investing is responsible or simply an excuse to gamble and have fun for a while.
If we think about it after the second conclusion as valid response, good advice would be to lose no more time and go to the casino, where at least we will have free drinks ...
So, let's play with average for US data.
In 1970 a new house cost $23,400.00 and by 1979 was $58,500.00
In 1970 the average income per year was $9,350.00 and by 1979 was $17,550.00
In 1970 the average cost of new car was $3,900.00 and by 1979 was $5,770.00
And you had 40 years by 1977. You did not own a house because you were still paying the mortgage.
But your average income is 1462. If moderated you can still pay a mortgage and get a loan.
To provide an estimate of inflation we have given a guide to the value of $100 US Dollars for the first year in the decade to the equivalent in today's money. If you have $100 Converted from 1970 to 2005 it would be equivalent to $517.65 today.
Your bank gave to you 1977's 40.000 dollars. Monthly payments is near $800. And you have to live (after pay) with $662 and maybe pay a mortgage of near $500. You still have 162 on a time where Ground beef 98 cents per pound.
Fortunately your wife (yes, you're married. Who is not at forties? and maybe you have children) got a part time job and gets another extra $800. You had to live with 962 every month for next 5 years.
You will not live on poverty because income poverty level for 1980 was 5680 (less than 500/month) and you have 962 butrs for the future but fortunately by 1983 your loan was paid.
By 1990 you have 62 and going to retirement and your Magellan fund account is with 1.120.000. Your kids have gone. Only you and your wife.
You will have long life and die at age of 92
.
Well, feel happy. You took all the money and dump into a bank at 4%/yy to avoid having dead money. First retrieve 40000 to live during 1992.
By 1991 overall median income was $40000. So, you just will live well.
When your day comes at age of 92 you still have 1.3 million on bank and had being living well.
Not bad for five hard years.
I know this example is very simplistic and adjusted by inflation is sh$t. But just an example of what you can do by thinking a while.