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AceTraderFx March 18: Euro rises against yen and U.S.dollar as Russia sanctions.....
Market Review - 17/03/2014 20:40GMT
Euro rises against yen and U.S.dollar as Russia sanctions seen as modest
The single currency rose against the greenback on Monday after sanctions imposed by U.S. President Barrack Obama and EU on Russia improved risk appetite and triggered a rally in U.S. equities.
Earlier in the day, although euro remained under pressure in Asia and weakened to session low at 1.3879 ahead of European open, price rebounded to 1.3912 in European morning and then rallied to an intra-day high at 1.3948 in New York morning on increased risk appetite.
The White House said 'Obama freezes assets of Russian officials involved in incursion of Ukraine's Crimean region; Obama order imposes travel ban on Russian officials involved in Crimea incursion.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback steadily gained throughout Asia and rose to session high at 101.88 in European morning before retreating to 101.56 in New York morning.
The British pound traded sideways in Asia and fell to session low at 1.6605 in European morning, due partly to active cross-selling of sterling vs euro. However, cable found support there and rose to an intra-day high at 1.6667 in New York morning on improved risk appetite before stabilizing.
In other news, BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said 'biggest banks still couldn't be dismantled safely in a crisis; mutual trust between regulators needed to make financial reforms succeed, avoid unintended consequences; reforms like U.S. refinancing of foreign banks risks fragmenting global financial system.'
On the data front, U.S. NY Fed manufacturing came in below expectation at 5.61 vs forecast of 6.00.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance, German ZEW current situation, ZEW expectation, EU ZEW expectation, U.S. CPI, housing starts, building permit, Redbook retail sales, long-term TIC flows.
AceTraderFx March 18: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Mar 2014 00:02GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
101.69
55 HR EMA
101.77
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
63
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy sideways trading to continue
Resistance
102.80 - Last Thur's NY high
102.55 - Last Wed's low
102.19 - 38.2% r of 103.77-101.21
Support
101.20 - Mar 03 low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
100.00 - 'Psychological' sup
. USD/JPY- 101.85...Although dlr opened near Fri's NY low at 101.21 at 101.24 in NZ y'day, FX market showed relatively muted reaction to Sun's referendum in Crimea n short-covering in yen crosses lifted price to 101.88 in early Europe b4 easing. Later, dlr rebounded after finding sup at 101.56 in NY morning.
. Y'day's rebound fm 101.24 to 101.88 indicates early fall fm 103.77 (Mar 7 high) has made a temporary low at 101.21 n choppy trading with mild upside bias is seen today for a minor correction to 102.19, this is the 'minimum' 38.2% r of 103.77-101.21, however, as aforesaid selloff fm 103.77 signals corrective up move fm 100.76 has ended there n daily technical indicators are falling again, suggesting bearishness remains for a re-test of 100.76 after consolidation, break there wud be the confirmation LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has indeed formed a top at 105.45 (2013 5-year peak made in Dec), then the greenback shud be en route twd 99.60, this is the 'natural' 50% r of the intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45, later this month.
. Today, buying dlr on dips or selling on upmove is favoured n only a daily
close abv 102.55 (prev. sup, now res) wud risk stronger gain twd 102.80.
AceTraderFx March 19: Euro weakens on concerns that Ukraine crisis may deepen
Market Review - 18/03/2014 22:53GMT
Euro weakens on concerns that Ukraine crisis may deepen
The single currency weakened against the greenback in hectic trading on Tuesday as despite initial rebound after Russia's President Vladimir Putin said Russia does not want Ukraine to be divided further, price retreated on risk aversion.
Earlier in the day, euro remained under pressure in Asia and fell to 1.3890 in European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected German ZEW data, however, price rose briefly but sharply to session high at 1.3944 on comments from Putin. Later, the pair pared its gains and dropped to an intra-day low at 1.3880 in New York morning but short-covering lifted price and euro closed at around 1.3934.
Germany ZEW survey current situation and survey expectations came in below forecasts at 51.3 and 46.6 vs expectations of 52.0 and 53.0 respectively.
Russia's Putin said 'U.S. foreign policy is dictated by not international law but by the right of the strong; Western partners have crossed the line over Ukraine, acted unprofessionally n irresponsibly; thanks China for support on Ukraine; Russia does not need the further division of Ukraine; will never seek to spark confrontation with the west but will defend Russian interests.'
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback fell from session high at 101.94 in Asia to 101.32 in European morning on broad-based buying of jpy before staging a rebound to 101.78 after Putin's comments. However, dollar pared its gains and weakened to 101.27 in New York before stabilizing.
The British pound traded in a narrow range in Asia and retreated to 1.6590 in early European morning before rebounding to 1.6632 at New York open. However, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower and cable fell sharply to an intra-day low at 1.6545 in New York morning before recovering. Cable closed at around 1.6593.
In other news, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said 'confidence growing in Eurozone overall, will support Portugal in its bailout exit decision.'
On the data front, Italy trade surplus widened to 1262M in Jan from 179M in Dec.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Australia leading index, Japan trade balance, import, export, all activity index, leading index, France current account, U.K. BoE minutes, jobless claim, average weekly earning, unemployment rate, employment change, Swiss Zew expectation, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. FOMC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Mar19: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1071.00
19 Mar 2014 00:55GMT
Yesterday's retreat to 1065.8 suggests recent upmove
from 1060.2 has made a temp. top at 1073.5 and weakness
to 1063.2 is likely after consolidation.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated and only
above 1073.5 aborts bearishness, risks 1075.2.
AceTraderFx March 20: U.S. dollar rallies broadly on hawkish remarks from Fed...
Market Review - 19/03/2014 22:56GMT
U.S. dollar rallies broadly on hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen
U.S. strengthens broadly against its major peers after the Federal Reserve continued to unwind its monetary stimulus as widely expected together with hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen who said the Fed will probably end its massive bond-buying program this coming fall, and could start to raise interest rates around six months later.
Despite euro's initial firmness in Asia after rebounding from Tue's New York low at 1.3880, the single currency retreated to 1.3905 in European morning on cross-selling of euro versus sterling before staging a brief recovery to 1.3930, however, renewed selling emerged and pressured the pair lower to 1.3899 in New York morning. Euro later tumbled sharply to 1.3810 after Fed's tapering move together with hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
The British pound traded narrowly in Asia and strengthened in European morning, eventually rising to an intra-day high at 1.6655 ahead of New York open, helped by the upbeat economic picture painted by the Bank of England in its minutes. However, profit-taking there pressured price lower and cable retreated to 1.6608 in New York morning. Sterling later nose-dived to as low as 1.6508 after Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-buying program and hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
BoE's minutes stated 'latest revisions to GDP data suggest UK recovery becoming more balanced but some way to go before sustainable; BoE notes 1.5% rise in sterling in month b4 Mar meeting, market contacts cite better UK growth outlook, Ukraine tension; stronger sterling has tightened UK monetary conditions, risk of further strength if UK growth outlook strengthens compared to other countries.'
Versus the Japanese yen, despite initial retreat to a session low at 101.30 in Asian morning, the greenback rebounded to 101.64 ahead of European open and then edged higher to 101.69 in European morning on dollar's broad-based strength. U.S. dollar jumped to as high as 102.69 (penetrated Tuesday's high at 101.94) after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
In other news, UK FinMin George Osborne said 'UK economy is recovering faster than forecast; country is borrowing too much, not exporting or saving enough; escalation of tensions in the Ukraine risk causing lower growth n higher inflation in UK; OBR have revised down UK underlying deficit in every year of forecast.'
On the data front, Japan all industry activity index came in at 1.0%, worse than the forecast of 1.1%, previous reading is revised to -0.3%.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, Swiss trade balance, import, export, rate decision, Germany PPI, Italy current account U.K. CBI trend total orders, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, existing home sales, leading index.
AceTraderFx March 20: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic- USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK- 11420
20 Mar 2014 07:27GMT
USD's board-based strength after Fed's tapering
move and hawkish statement from Yallen suggests fall from
12275 has made a low at 11255 on Mon.
Hold long for 11500 with stop as indicated, below
would risk pullback to 11290/00.
AceTraderFx March 21: U.S. dollar extends gain versus euro and cable after Wed....
Market Review - 20/03/2014 22:52GMT
U.S. dollar extends gain versus euro and cable after Wednesday's hawkish comments by Fed Chair Yellen
The greenback continued to strengthen against majority of its peers on Thursday after Yellen's message to the markets on Wednesday that interest rate hikes were not far away.
Although the single currency staged a short-covering rebound to 1.3845 at European open, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower and euro tumbled to an intra-day low at 1.3749 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before stabilizing.
The British pound tracked euro's intra-day movements closely and edged higher to 1.6570 in European morning before falling to session low at 1.6480 in New York morning. Later, cable traded sideways for rest of the New York session.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated to a session low at 102.21 ahead of European open, however, renewed dollar strength pushed the pair higher and dollar rose to a session high of 102.55 ahead of New York open before easing.
In other news, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said 'EU leaders will agree on further sanctions against Russia at summit beginning Thursday; current tension with Russia means G8 does not exist at present; EU leaders will make clear they are ready to go to 3rd stage of sections including economic measures if necessary.'
On the data front, SNB keep its rate unchanged at 0.0-0.25%.
The Department of Labor of U.S. reported that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 15 rose by 5,000 to 320,000 from the previous week's total of 315,000.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand consumer confidence, EU current account, consumer confidence U.K. public finance, Canada retail sales, CPI. Japan financial market will be closed due to public holiday.
AceTraderFx March 21: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2769
21 Mar 2014 07:25GMT
Although USD has retreated from 1.2794, as long as
1.2726 sup holds, upside bias remains for rise from
1.2582 (Feb) to resume and extend toward 1.2830.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated and only below
1.2701 aborts bullishness on USD, risks 1.2676.
AceTraderFx March 21: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Mar 2014 00:50GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
102.36
55 HR EMA
102.13
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Turning down
13 HR RSI
56
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
103.77 - Mar's high (07)
103.10 - Last Wed's high
102.69 - Wed's high
Support
102.21 - Y'day's low
101.94 - Tue's high, now sup
101.69 - Wed's European morning high
. USD/JPY- 102.38... Despite dlr's rally to 102.69 on Wed after Fed chief Yellen's hawkish comments, dlr retreated to 102.21 ahead of European open as decline in Asian equities led buying of yen. Price rebounded to 102.55 ahead of NY open but later moved sideways inside a narrow range of 102.31-102.54 in NY.
. As mentioned in our previous update, dlr's rally abv Tue's top of 101.94
to as high as 102.69 confirms fall fm Mar's peak at 103.77 has ended at 101.21 last Fri n further 'choppy' trading inside recent established broad range of 100.76-103.77 wud continue. As dlr's rally on Wed suggests consolidation with upside bias remains, stronger gain twd 103.10 (last Wed's high) is envisaged later today or early next week, however, as hourly oscillators wud in o/bot territory on such move, reckon price wud falter below chart res at 103.43 (last Tue's high) n yield strg retreat later.
. Today, we're holding a long dlr position in anticipation of gain to 103.00, however, profit shud be taken on subsequent rise. On the downside, a daily close below 101.94 (previous top, now sup) wud be the 1st signal rebound fm 101.21 has ended, then risk wud shift to the downside for weakness to 101.49/52.
AceTraderFx March 24: Euro ends slightly higher on dollar's profit taking after...
Market Review - 23/03/2014 23:36GMT
Euro ends slightly higher on dollar's profit taking after Thursday's gain
The single currency ended the day slightly higher against the greenback on Friday as investors sought clarity on the Federal Reserve's stance on their monetary policy and pared some of Thursday's gains on profit taking.
Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and edged lower to session low at 1.3766 in early European morning, price rebounded to 1.3805 ahead of New York open, as data showed a record Eurozone current account surplus. Later, euro rose higher to an intra-day high at 1.3810 in New York morning before stabilizing.
EU current account came in at 25.3 billion euros, up from previous figure of 20.0 billion euros.
The British pound tracked euro's intra-day movements closely and fell below Thursday's 1.6480 low to a fresh 1-month low at 1.6475 in early European morning before rebounding to 1.6515 and trading sideways for the remainder of the day.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded sideways and fell sharply to session low at 102.01 in early European morning on broad-based buying of jpy. However, dollar pared its losses and recovered to 102.41 at New York open before trading narrowly.
In other news, Fed's Kocherlakota said 'he dissented at March's FOMC meeting because guidance weakens Fed's credibility to target 2% inflation; new rate guidance suggests Fed sees inflation below 2% as acceptable outcome; Fed's new rate guidance does not communicate steps to move inflation rapidly up to 2%.'
Bank of England's Dale said "he doesn't know what will happen to interest rates in 6-12 months. BOE's Dale said central banks should communicate what they know, which is their 'reaction function'; central bankers should communicate state-contingent guidance, rather than time-contingent guidance."
On the data front, EU consumer confidence came in at -9.3, better than forecast of -12.3.
Data to be released next week:
China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France service PMI, manufacturing PMI, EU service PMI, manufacturing PMI, EU service PMI, manufacturing PMI, U.S. Chicago Nat activity index, Markit PMI on Monday
France business confidence, German IFO business climate, current assessment, expect, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, BBA loans for house purchase, CBI reported sales, U.S. Redbook retail sales, house price index, S&P house price, consumer confidence New home sales on Tuesday.
Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence, U.S. durable goods on Wednesday.
New Zealand trade balance, exports, import, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, economic sentiment, U.K. retail sales, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, initial jobless claims, pending home sales on Thursday.
Japan overall household spending, jobless rate, CPI, retail sales, France PPI, Italy PPI, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, GDP, Lloyds business Barometer, current account, EU economic confidence, consumer confidence, business climate, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, university of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.