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AceTraderFx Jun 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jun 2014 01:56GMT
USD/JPY - ... Despite staging a brief bounce to 102.14 yesterday, the greenback ratcheted lower in New York and fell to an intra-day low of 101.61 on speculation that continued speculation that the BoJ will refrain from expanding stimulus measures at Fri's monetary meeting, however, short-covering in late NY lifted the pair to 101.82 in Asian morning. Bids are located at 101.65-60 whilst some offers are tipped at 102.00-10.
BOJ is likely to announce its rate decision at 02:30-03:30GMT. Most economists predict no policy change. The BOJ has kept its policy of buying about 7 trillion yen ($68.8 billion) of government bonds a month since April 2013.
Nikkei-225 index currently drops by 95 points to 14877, following the sell off in U.S. stock markets.
Data to be released on Friday:
Bank of Japan rate decision, Japan industrial production, China industrial output, retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP final, Italy consumer prices final, CPI, euro zone employment, trade balance, U.S. PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
AcetraderFx Jun 13: Daily Outlook on asian exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11785
13 Jun 201407:02GMT
Usd's breach of Monday's 11775 low suggests fall from
last Thursday's 3-1/2 month peak at 11895 has resumed and
marginal weakness to 11740 is likely before rebound.
Would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 11810
would signal low made and bring gain to 11850.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11810/11850/11895
SUP : 11740/11700/11650
AceTraderFx Jun 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Jun 2014 01:45GMT
USD/JPY ... Despite dlr's rebound from last Thursday's low at 101.61 to 102.14 on Fri, the greenback ratcheted lower to 101.85 in Asian morning as Nikkei-225 index dropped by 99 points to 14998 due to geopolitical worries as violence escalated in Iraq, and together with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pledge to cut corporate taxes last week failed to lift investor sentiment.
Offers are tipped at 101.95-00 and 102.10. On the downside, bids are located at 101.70-65 with stops building up below 101.60 and 101.40.
Investors are now focusing on this week's important event that whether the Federal Reserve will provide new hints or not on the timing of interest rate hikes when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.
U.S. dollar may rally if there is any hawkish comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Data to be released this week:
U.K. Rightmove house prices, euro zone inflation reports, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, industrial output, New long-term TIC flow, capacity utilization, NAHB housing market index on Monday.
Japan BoJ meeting minutes, RBA meeting minutes, Switzerland producer/import price, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, PPI, RPI, Germany ZEW current conditions, ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. CPI, housing starts, building permits on Tuesday.
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, China house prices, U.K. BoE MPC vote outcome, Switzerland ZEW investor sentiment, Canada wholesale trade, U.S. Current account, FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand GDP, Japan Tankan, U.K. Retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. Consumer confidence on Thursday.
Germany producer prices, euro zone current accounts, Italy industrial orders, U.K. PSNCR, Canada CPI, retail sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jun 16: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD
Last Update At 15 Jun 2014 23:25GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3541
55 HR EMA
1.3546
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
44
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.3620 - Jun 06 low (now res)
1.3602 - Last Tue's high
1.3579 - Last Fri's high
Support
1.3512 - Last Thur's low
1.3503 - Hyn 05 4-month low
1.3477 - Feb 3 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3533... Despite rallying fm a near 4-month low of 1.3503 to 1.3677 in the previous week, euro came under renewed broad-based selling at the start of the week n fell back to 1.3512, however, profit-taking abv 1.3503 lifted price n euro recovered to 1.3579 on Fri b4 retreating to 1.3521 in NY.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, euro's weakness to 1.3512 strongly suggests the correction fm 1.3503 has ended at 1.3677 n as long as this reaction high holds, bearishness remains for decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace MT uptrend to resume n yield subsequent weakness to 1.3477 (Feb 03 low). Having said that, as prominent 'bullish convergences' wud appear on the hourly oscillators on such a move, sharp fall below there is unlikely to be seen this week n reckon 1.3445, this is the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of intermediate rise of 1.3105-1.3995, wud hold n bring a much-needed correction.
. Today, although euro may come under pressure on Mon initially, unless euro bears are able to take out 1.3503 sup, odds still favour further choppy sideways move abv there b4 prospect of a downside break later. Below 1.3503 wud encourage for weakness twd next daily obj. at 1.3477 (Feb low).
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Jun 2014 01:31GMT
AUD/USD- RBA releases minutes of its June's policy meeting (the minutes said to keep rates low amid uncertain outlook) :
1. significant recovery underway in home building, non-mining investment still subdued.
2. liaison with retailers suggested sales growth slowed further in may.
3. noted sharp fall in surveys of consumer confidence, doubted their predictive power.
4. spare labour capacity to keep wage growth restrained over the year ahead.
5. lower iron ore price still profitable for Australian miners, not so for some others.
6. demand for labour had improved, but employment growth likely to be only moderate.
7. economic growth to be below trend for next year or so, inflation within target band.
8. repeats a$ high by historical standards, especially given fall in commodity prices.
9. these "uncertainties" would likely take some time to resolve.
10. difficult to judge if low rates enough to offset mining investment, fiscal tightening.
11. policy likely to stay accommodative for some time yet.
The aussie falls after the minutes as the tone is interpreted on the dovish side.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia RBA meeting minutes, Switzerland producer/import price, Italy trade balance, U.K. CPI, PPI, RPI, euro zone ZEW economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, U.S. CPI, housing starts, building permits. FOMC begins 2-day meeting.
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
DAILY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 17 Jun 2014 00:26GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences
21 HR EMA
0.8980
55 HR EMA
0.8986
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
36
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias
Resistance
0.9082 - Feb 03 high
0.9037 - Jun 05 3-1/2 month high
0.9013 - Y'day's high
Support
0.8960- Last Fri's low
0.8620 - Last Mon's low
0.8908 - Jun 05 low
.USD/CHF - 0.8971... The greenback remained under pressure in Asia y'day n retreated to 0.8987 at European open. Despite a one-tick break of prev. 0.9012 res, dlr met renewed selling n fell sharply to an intra-day low at 0.8966 in NY morning on risk aversion due to escalating tensions in Iraq.
. Looking at the hourly chart, although dlr's retreat fm 0.9013 suggests recent rise fm Mar's 2-year low at 0.8698 is not yet ready to resume n further choppy trading below Jun's 3-1/2 month wud continue with mild downside bias, reckon last Mon's low at 0.8620 shud remain intact n yield recovery. Abv 0.9037 wud extend aforesaid upmove twds 0.9076/82, this is a 'natural' 50% r of the MT decline fm 0.9455 (2013 Sep peak) n Feb 03 high respectively. Having said that, as the hourly oscillators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place later this week.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, we are buying dlr on intra-day decline n only below 0.8920 wud abort bullishness on euro n risk stronger retracement twd 0.8908 (Jun 05 low) b4 prospect of another rebound.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Jun 2014 01:58GMT
USD/JPY - ... The greenback maintained a firm undertone in Tokyo morning after y'day's cross-inspired rebound to 102.24 due to the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The rise in Japanese equities (Nikkei-225 index rose by 65 points to 15041) is likely to support the pair. Bids are now located at 102.05-00 n more at 101.90 with stops only seen below 101.80 n 101.60. Offers are now tipped at 102.30-40 n further out at 102.55-60.
According to the minutes of the May 20-21 board meeting released earlier today, most board members said the Bank of Japan will check risks and make adjustment as needed.
Below are minutes from the BOJ :
members expressed the view that it was appropriate for BOJ to continue to steadily pursue QQE, as such easing had been exerting its intended effects;
members shared recognition QQE effects continued to firmly take hold;
members shared the recognition that, in a situation where nominal interest rates had been stable, real interest rates were declining on the back of a rise in inflation expectations;
gov't rep. said supply-side constraints had surfaced in the form of labor shortages, due to the current sustained economic recovery; members shared view global markets had been calm on whole though some nervousness observed reflecting geopolitical risks such as Ukraine;
some members said recent U.S., European long-term rate falls may reflect market awareness of weaker outlook for medium- to long-term economic growth;
members shared view overseas economies, mainly advanced economies, would recover moderately;
members concurred that growth momentum in the ASEAN countries remained weak.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Japan trade balance, exports, imports, BoJ meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. BoE meeting minutes, BoE MPC vote outcome, Switzerland ZEW investor sentiment, Canada wholesale trade, U.S. current account, FOMC rate decision, QE total.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Market Outlook om Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2543
18 Jun 2014 04:24GMT
Yesterday's rally above 1.2515 (now sup) to 1.2542
confirms early decline from 1.2587 has ended at 1.2471
and upside bias remains for gain to 1.2570 later.
Raise long entry for this move n only below 1.2493/95
would risk possible weakness toward 1.2471 later.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2525
OBJECTIVE : 1.2575
STOP-LOSS : 1.2495
RES : 1.2542/1.2568/1.2587
SUP : 1.2493/1.2471/1.2451
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 17 Jun 2014 23:52GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
102.10
55 HR EMA
102.02
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
67
14 HR DMI
67
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
102.80 - Jun 04 high
102.65 - Mon's high
102.42 - Last Tue's NY high
Support
101.90 - Y'day's European low
101.61 - Last Fri's low
101.43 - May 29 low
. USD/JPY- 102.20... Dlr found renewed buying at 101.82 in Australia on Tue n climbed to 102.07 in Asia as rise in the Nikkei boosted risk appetite. Later, dollar ratcheted higher in NY morning after release of higher-than-expect ed U.S. CPI data n rose to session high of 102.24 b4 easing in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's break of 102.14 (last Fri's
high) suggests correction fm Jun's peak at 102.80 has ended earlier at 101.61 last Thur n choppy trading with mild upside bias remains, abv res 102.42 anytime wud add credence to this view n re-test of 102.80 wud follow. Looking ahead, break of 102.80 wud confirm upmove fm May's 3-1/2 month trough at 100.81 has resumed n extend twd 103.02, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of the fall fm 104.13-100.81, a daily close abv there wud encourage for further headway twd 103.50, however, as mentioned in previous updates, we're holding our view the broad side ways move fm 2014 5-year peak at 105.45 (Jan) is unfolding into a 'triangle' n pivotal res at 104.13 (possible B-leg top) wud continue to hold this month.
. Today, trading dlr fm long side for gain to 102.55 is recommended n only a daily close below 101.43 (May low) wud abort bullishness on dlr n risk 101.10.
AceTraderFx Jun 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
19 Jun 2014 01:54GMT
Despite y'day's brief rise to 102.35, the greenback retreated strongly to 101.88 on dlr's broad-based weakness after FOMC rate decision n dovish comments fm Fed Chair Janet Yellen, however, the rally in Nikkei-225 (now rallies by 214 points) limited the pair's downside somewhat. Offers are tipped at 102.10-15 n more at 102.30. On the downside, some bids are located at 101.85-80 n 101.70-60 with stops building up below 101.60.
A Bank of Japan report showed earlier that non-financial companies' holdings of cash and deposits rose 4.1 percent to 232 trillion yen ($2.3 trillion) at the end of March, while they increased borrowing from private banks at the slowest pace since the final quarter of 2012. Households kept more than half of their assets in cash and deposits.
Statement from BOJ board member Morimoto says:-
Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend;
Japan's economy likely to sustain positive cycle of output, income and expenditure;
Effect of BOJ's monetary easing likely to strengthen ahead as inflation expectations heighten;
Creating sustainable fiscal structure a crucial prerequisite to achieve sustained economic growth in Japan;
Overseas economic growth likely to heighten ahead as recovery in advanced economies gradually spreads to emerging nations;
Must watch carefully how risk of prolonged disinflation, developments over ukraine could affect euro zone economies;
Effect of sales tax hike on consumption likely to recede from around summer onward;
Exports likely to rebound, albeit moderately, as overseas growth picks up, though risks of fluctuations exist;
Expect Japan's inflation to gradually accelerate as improvement in corporate revenues leads to rises in jobs, wages, capex.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand GDP, Japan leading economic index, Switzerland SNB rate decision, U.K. retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. jobless claims, leading index, Philly Fed business index.