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US Nobel Laureate & Economist Joseph Stiglitz Advised Shinzo Abe To Delay Sales Tax Increase & Focus On Fiscal Spending
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
16 Mar 2016 02:06GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Japan's PM Shinzo Abe is meeting with foreign economists to help him prepare for hosting a Group of Seven summit that will be hosted by Japan in May 2016, and U.S. Nobel laureate and economist Joseph Stiglitz said that he had advised Shinzo Abe to delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next year and to focus more on fiscal spending to boost a recovery from recession. Stiglitz told Abe that G7 need to coordinate policy as weak aggregate demand was harming the global economy and contributing to income disparity.
The G7 talks, according to some economists, could give Abe a convenient reason to postpone tax hikes, relax fiscal austerity and and introduce more stimulus to avoid relying too much on monetary policy.
"A consumption tax increase now would be going in the wrong direction," said Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University. "This is a time to have stimulating fiscal policy."
Abe is scheduled to raise the nationwide sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April next year, but some of Abe's closest advisers are calling for the plan to be shelved.
Abe had raised the levy to 8 percent from 5 percent in April 2014, which was agreed under the previous government in order to curb Japan's massive public debt, but this move triggered a recession and some economists say consumer spending still has not fully recovered.
Stiglitz advised the Japan's government the need to adapt its policies in response to changes in the economy, and that taxes on carbon emissions could be a better way to spur innovation and improve domestic demand.
A G20 summit last month had called for more fiscal spending and less reliance on monetary policy to help the fragile global economy, which some investors say has reached its limit after years of quantitative easing and negative real interest rates.
AceTraderFx Mar 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
16 Mar 2016 04:05GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro trades narrowly in subdued Asian morning as market's focus is on dlr/yen and yen crosses. Price is in holding pattern after yesterday's intra-day gyrations ended with a modest rebound from European 1.1072 low to 1.1125 following release of weak U.S. retail sales data, however, euro's gain proved to be short-lived and price quickly retreated to 1.1087 but renewed buying emerged and lifted the pair.
Although range trading is expected ahead of European open, buying euro on dips is still favoured ahead of FOMC announcement later at 18:00GMT as there has been market chatter of good buying interest at 1.1080-60 area.
Bids are noted at 1.1090-80 with light stops below 1.1060, offers are tipped at 1.1125/35 with stops touted above there.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan industrial production, tertiary industry index, capacity utilization, Germany wholesale price index, Italy trade balance, U.K. unemployment, average earning, claimant count change, U.S. mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, CPI, manufacturing output, industrial output, capacity utilization, Fed interest rate decision and Canada manufacturing sales.
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AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:15 Mar 2016 05:07 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1105
Despite yesterday's 'sterling-led' marginal weakness below Mon's 1.1077 low to 1.1072 in Europe, subsequent rebound to 1.1125 in New York following weak U.S. retail sales data suggests consolidation is in store initially and mild upside bias remains , a firm break above overead res area at 1.1125/35 would signal pullback from last Thursday's 1.1218 peak has ended, then outlook would improve for further subsequent headway towards 1.1193.
On the downside, below 1.1072 would risk stronger retracement of euro's early spectacular rally from last Thursday's 1-month trough at 1.0821 towards 1.1058 (previous res, now sup), loss of momentum should keep price well above 1.1019 (50% r from 1.0821) and bring another rise later this week.
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The greenback remains under pressure in Asia after yesterday's unchanged Fed rate decision
AceTraderFx Mar 17:Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Mar 2016 02:03GMT
USD/MAJORS - The greenback remains under pressure in Asia after yesterday's unchanged Fed rate decision. The Fedheld interest rates steady on Wednesday and indicated that moderate U.S. economic growth and "strong job gains" would allow it to tighten policy this year, with fresh projections showing policymakers expected two quarter-point hikes by the year's end, half the number seen in December.
The U.S. central bank, however, noted that the United States continues to face risks from an uncertain global economy.
In a press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it remained to be seen whether a recent firming in U.S. core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, would be sustained.
Fed policymakers projected weaker economic growth and lower inflation this year and lowered their estimate of where the targeted lending rate would be in the long run to 3.30 percent from 3.50 percent - a signal that the economic recovery would remain tepid.
The interest rate outlook is a shift from the four hikes expected when the Fed raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. The majority of policymakers now said they expected it would be appropriate to raise rates by about a half a percentage point by the end of this year.
The new rate outlook came as the Fed attempts to steer through recent global market volatility and keep its rate hike plans somewhat intact.
The Fed had adopted a cautious approach at its last policy meeting in January, amid a selloff on financial markets, weaker oil prices and falling inflation expectations. As in its January policy statement, the Fed did not say directly how it regards the balance of risks to the U.S. economy.
Fed policymakers also see continued improvement in the job market, with the unemployment rate expected to decline to 4.7 percent by the end of the year and fall further in 2017 and 2018.
Fed policymakers marked down their forecast for inflation this year to 1.2 percent from 1.6 percent, but see it recovering to close to the central bank's 2 percent medium-term target next year.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George was the only policymaker to dissent on Wednesday.
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AceTraderFx Mar 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (AUD/USD)
17 Mar 2016 2:24GMT
AUD/USD - ..... Aud rose to a fresh 8-month high of 0.7620 after release of AU jobs data. Australian employment barely rose in February but the jobless rate still fell back to 5.8 percent as fewer people went looking for work, a mixed report that did little to clarify the outlook for either the labour market or interest rates.
Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed just 300 net new jobs were created in February, though full-time employment did increase by 15,900, offsetting a fall of 15,600 in part-time jobs.
Median forecasts had been for a rise of 10,000 in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.
The monthly jobs numbers are notoriously volatile and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to focus on shifts in the unemployment rate to gauge the health of the labour market.
The drop to 5.8 percent would likely be welcomed then, especially as the central bank had recently highlighted unemployment as a key source of uncertainty going forward.
Interbank futures still imply around a 50-50 chance of a rate cut by August, in part because policy steps by other major central banks were pushing the local dollar higher in a way that could prove a brake on exports.
Just on Wednesday the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a slowdown in the planned pace of its policy tightening, sending the U.S. dollar down across the board.
Asked about the Fed's move on Thursday, RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle said practically every central bank in the world was keen to see a falling currency that would support domestic economies.
"We would like a lower Australian dollar. But we can't all have depreciating currencies," Debelle said, conceding it would be hard to engineer a decline in the Aussie.
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AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:17 Mar 2016 05:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1213
Euro's anticipated rebound from 1.1058 to a 1-month peak of 1.1242 in post-FOMC New York session Wednesday after dovish Fed statement has justified our recent bullish stance and expect minor consolidation to take place in Asia before upmove from last week's 1.0821 low (Thursday) resumes towards 1.1290/00, near term overbought condition should cap price below minor daily res at 1.1335.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1193 (previous res, now sup) signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1150. However, reckon 1.1125 should remain intact.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 17 Mar 2016 08:06 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.70
The greenback's selloff to 112.33 yesterday on dollar's broad-based weakness post the Federal Reserve's unchanged rate decision, then intra-day fall below said support to 111.48 signals recent erratic downtrend from March's high at 114.56 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.30/40, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 111.04.
On the upside, only above 112.63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and turn outlook bullish for a much-needed correction towards 112.96/00.
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AceTraderFx Mar 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
18 Mar 2016 01:10GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Bank of Japan- BOJ made two proposals, one to expand the bank's massive asset-buying programme and another to add negative interest rates to asset purchases, at the January rate review, minutes of the meeting showed on Friday.
The BOJ eventually decided to adopt the negative interest rate policy after several members argued the move would help forestall the risk of external factors delaying the eradication of Japan's "deflationary mindset," the minutes showed.
The BOJ unexpectedly deployed the negative interest rate policy in January to stimulate the economy, although four of the nine board members dissented the decision, which drew criticism from lawmakers for failing to boost stock prices or arrest an unwelcome rise in the yen.
The central bank kept policy settings unchanged at a subsequent meeting in March but offered a bleaker view on the economy, signalling its readiness to roll out further stimulus if needed to hit its ambitious 2 percent inflation target.
In a separate news conference, Japan chief govt spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga comment that it is not true that the government had started in considering a sales tax hike delay, and that that there was no change in plans for Japan to increase the sales tax next year, unless any major financial crisis or natural disaster happened.
The Yomiuri newspaper reported on Friday that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was considering delaying for a second time a planned increase in the nation's sales tax if the economy continued to stagnate.
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AceTraderFx Mar 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Mar 2016 03:00GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr remains under pressure in nervous Tokyo trading after yesterday's brief but sharp jump from 110.67 to as high as 112.00 at New York open, traders cited such unusual move was on market report of rate check by BoJ, however, price quickly erased intra-day gain and fell back to as low as 110.97 before trading sideways in directionless New York afternoon session.
The fact that price has fallen in Asia due to renewed weakness in the Nikkie (currently down 320 points at 16616), suggesting yen-buying may continue.
Initial bids are noted at 110.70-60 with stops below there, however, more buying interest is touted at 110.40-30 with fairly large stops below 'psychological' level at 110.00.
Offers have been lowered to 112.00/10 and more above with stops above 111.60.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany producer price index, Eurozone labour cost, U.S. Philadelphia Fed business index, Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Canada CPI and retail sales.
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AceTraderFx Mar 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
18 Mar 2016 08:40GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Although the single currency briefly edged up to 1.1337 in Asian morning, price dropped sharply to 1.1275 at European open as ECB's Praet hinted that ECB cud cut its rates further and continues to remain under pressure.
Germany's producer price index fell more-than-expected last month.
In a report, Destatis said that German Producer Price Inflation fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.5%, from -0.7% in the preceding month.
Offers are now seen at 1.1290/00 and more above at 1.1310/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1220/30, suggesting selling on pullback is favored.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates