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AUD/USD: general review
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair continues growing. The pair was supported by strong data from Australia that came out better than forecasts. The Trade Balance deficit shrank to 2.94 billion, while the AiG Performance of Services Index grew to 51.8 points.
Today pair’s dynamics can influenced by data on Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders from the US. Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in Australia and the Unemployment Rate in the US.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are horizontal. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. ADX is moving up, while DI lines are crossing each other and heading in opposite directions.
Support levels: 0.7296, 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7127, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6953, 0.6906, 0.6830.
Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7380.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7340, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7320. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7290 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7310. Validity – 1-2 days.
USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
This week, the USD/CAD pair has been falling like it did in the previous month. At present, the price remains near the level of the beginning of December 2015.
Today, series of macroeconomic publications are due both in the US and Canada. At 3:30 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to statistics on US labour market, including data on unemployment rate. It is hard to predict what impact these releases will have on the American currency. At the same time, analysts’ forecasts for Canada’s data are generally negative.
Support and resistance
According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue moving down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3060, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3700, 1.3900, 1.4070.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.3300 with the target at 1.3060.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3540 with the target at 1.3700.
USD/JPY: pair trades flat
Current trend
The USD/JPY pair ended the previous trading week near the opening levels.
On Friday, the Yen was growing moderately during the morning session supported by the statements of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the central bank is not considering any further cuts in interest rates. More support for the currency came from favorable data on labour cash earning which were up by 0.4% in January after the previous 0.2% growth.
Then, the pair gained back its losses amid US macroeconomic data but did not manage to strengthen further, as the US Dollar came under pressure due to a fall in the indicators of average hourly earnings and average weekly hours.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is directed horizontally while the price range is trying to remain within the current borders. MACD is slowing down its growth but is still keeping a relatively strong buy signal. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and moving up-and-down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.00, 112.50, 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 113.85, 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00 (8 February level), 116.50, 117.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 113.85 with targets at 115.00, 115.60 and stop-loss at 113.00. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 113.00 with targets at 112.00, 111.50, 111.00 and stop-loss at 113.70. Validity – 2-4 days.
USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly grew amid some decline in oil prices and the strengthening US Dollar.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and the regulator’s Rate Statement. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at the current 0.5%. High volatility is expected on the market during the news releases.
Support and resistance
The pair is trading near the strong resistance level at 1.3470 that the price has tested three times since the beginning of the month.
The likeliest scenario seems a price rebound from the level of 1.3470 that coincides with the upper MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, and its further fall towards the middle MA of the indicator at the level of 1.3364.
Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3470 with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3495.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3495 with the target at 1.3585 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the monetary policy ECB meeting. As soon as the decision to cut the refinance rate to zero and the deposit rate to -0.4% was made, the pair significantly fell. However, later comments by Mario Draghi that in the near future more monetary policy easing in unlikely sent the pair in the opposite direction. At the same time, pair’s growth was limited by strong data on Initial Jobless Claims form the US that fell to 259 thousands that was better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Imports and Exports from the US.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price broke out the upper MA of Bollinger Bands suggesting a downward correction possibility towards the level of 1.1038. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are falling indicating a correction possibility as well.
Support levels: 1.1158, 1.1038, 1.1000, 1.0990.
Resistance levels: 1.1217, 1.1250, 1.1286.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 1.1100 with targets at 1.1038, 1.0990 and stop-loss at 1.1125.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1217 with targets at 1.1250, 1.1286 and stop-loss at 1.1242.
USD/JPY: pair shows flat
Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of strong data in the US and the ECB decision to expand its QE program.
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy that is due tomorrow. Investors worry that the regulator can apply fresh measures aimed at limiting growth in the Yen and stimulating inflation growth.
In addition, tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Industrial Production in Japan.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range significantly narrowed. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50 (local low), 113.00, 112.50 (9 and 10 March lows), 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 114.00 (local high), 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00, 116.50, 117.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 114.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 115.00, 115.56 and stop-loss at 113.50. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 114.00 with targets at 113.00, 112.50 and stop-loss at 114.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
AUD/JPY: pair is falling
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is showing a significant decline. The pair was substantially pressured by the Bank of Japan statement. As was expected, the regulator left monetary policy unchanged. However, in its Monetary Policy Statement it noted that prospects for the world economy growth remain gloom.
In addition, according to today’s RBA Meeting Minutes, the Australian GDP continues growing but labour market conditions are still poor. In particular, wages growth remain low.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend considering correctional sales.
Support levels: 85.00 (local low), 84.46, 83.69 (10 March low), 83.00, 82.41, 82.06.
Resistance levels: 85.69 (local high), 86.00, 86.39 (local high), 87.00, 87.30 (4 January high), 88.00, 88.60.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 83.00, 82.00 and stop-loss at 85.00. Validity – 2-4 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 85.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 86.39, 87.00 and stop-loss at 84.00. Validity – 2-3 days.
USD/CAD: pair is falling
Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly declined after the US Fed made its Interest Rate Decision. As was expected, the rate remained unchanged at the current 0.5% but the regulator lowered its own forecasts of the pace of further monetary policy tightening. In addition, the regulator acknowledged the existence of substantial risks for the growth of the US and world economies.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to the speeches by Fed officials and to data on inflation in Canada.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening, but the price currently remains outside of its borders. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3100 (local low), 1.3037 (3 November 2015 low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2951, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3164 (local high), 1.3224, 1.3265, 1.3300 (psychologically important level), 1.3370, 1.3404 (local high), 1.3457, 1.3500, 1.3586 (29 February high), 1.3650.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3200, 1.3265 and stop-loss at 1.3030. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3165. Validity – 2-3 days.
USD/CAD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued falling amid weakness of the US Dollar and the publication of mixed macroeconomic data in the US. The Current Account deficit amounted to 125.3 billion, while economists predicted it at 118.9 billion USD. At the same time, the number of Initial Jobless Claims grew to 265 thousands that was yet better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core. According to forecast, the index will grow that might add to pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
Support levels: 1.2965, 1.2940.
Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3165, 1.3210, 1.3265, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3365, 1.3400, 1.3465, 1.3530.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2965 with targets at 1.2940, 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2990. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3030 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3000. Validity – 1-3 days.
NZD/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the NZD/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range. Market participants are waiting for new drivers which will determine further dynamics in the pair. However, as no macroeconomic releases are due in New Zealand and not so much important data is expected to be released in the US, the pair is likely to keep trading flat.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest the pair tends to trade within the sideways range. Bollinger Bands are narrowing down while the price remains near the middle MA. Later, a slight decline is possible after which a correction can be expected.
Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6630, 0.6610.
Resistance levels: 0.6795, 0.6860.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 0.6730 and stop-loss at 0.6795.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6795 with the target at 0.6860.