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AceTraderFx Jun 19: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
Last Update At 19 Jun 2014 00:47GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6971
55 HR EMA
1.6963
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
66
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
1.7078 - 2.236 time ext. of .6693-1.6845 fm 1.6738
1.7044 - Aug 05 (2009) high
1.7011 - Mon's fresh 5-year peak
Support
1.6920 - Y'day's low
1.6890 - 38.2% r of 1.6693-1.7011
1.6860 - Last Fri's high (now sup)
. GBP/USD- 1.6995... Cable swung wildly in volatile session Wed. Despite a brief jump to 1.7005 after BoE's minutes, price swiftly tumbled to 1.6932 as statements fm BoE tempered speculation of a U.K. rate hike soon. Later, cable fell to 1.6920 in NY n then rose to 1.7001 after FOMC rate & policy decision.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rally fm 1.6920 strongly
suggests cable's correction fm Mon's 5-year peak at 1.7011 has ended there n intra-day bullishness remains for re-test of said res lvl, abv there wud bring
re-test of major res at 1.7044, this was 2009 peak as well as the reaction high fm 2009 multi-decade trough at 1.3500, a daily close abv wud encourage for further headway to 1.7100, then twd measured upside target at 1.7300, this is 100% proj. of intermediate rise fm 1.4814-1.6260 measured fm 1.5854. Our weekly strategy is holding a long position in anticipation of a gain to 1.7100.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying
the pound on dips is the way to go n only below 1.6920 wud dampen current bullish scenario, risk weakness to 1.6906/07 nut 1.6875 (50% r fm 1.6738) shud hold.
AceTraderFx Jun 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jun 2014 02:03GMT
USD/JPY -... The greenback recovered briefly after retreating from Wednesday's high at 102.35 to 101.74 yesterday, suggesting further sideways trading would be seen as there is no major economic data coming out from Japan and U.S. Offers are now tipped at 102.00-05 whilst some bids are located at 101.75 and 101.65 with stops seen below 101.60.
U.S. dollar is likely to move narrowly versus the Japanese yen as currency volatility fell to a record amid prospects a sluggish U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates near zero for longer.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak later today.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany producer prices, euro zone current account, Italy industrial orders, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, Canada CPI, retail sales.
AceTraderfx Jun 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jun 2014 08:34GMT
USD/JPY - Statement from senior BoJ official says 'inappropriate to say BoJ's QQE will be terminated automatically in 2 years irrespective of economic developments; prematre to discuss when n how BoJ shud exit fm QQE, but it has a variety of tool n there are many ways to exit; redemption of JGB portfolio, rise of interest rate on excess reserves cud be considered as being among tools if BoJ were to exit; actual combination n sequencing of these tools will surely depend on developments in economy, prices n financial mkts at the time of exit.'
Earlier statement from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda :
'won't hesitate to adjust policy if needed to met price target, watching upside, downside risks; Japan's economy recovering moderately, price conditions improving sharply; BoJ's QE exerting intended effect; don't see any changes in inflation trend after Apr sales tax hike; exports having been recently flat on continued weakness in ASEAN economies; positive movements broadening in financial sectors, as well as in economic, price developments.'
AceTraderFx Jun 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jun 2014 02:13GMT
USD/JPY- ... Despite last Fri's cross-inspired rebound to 102.20 in part due to the gain in Nikkei-225 index futures following the rise in U.S. stock markets, the greenback retreated briefly as offers are reported at 102.20 n more at 102.30-35. On the downside, bids are located at 101.85-80 with stops building up below 101.70 n 101.60.
The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a London-based research group, issued a report last week that concluded central banks were buying equities to compensate for lost revenues on their reserves amid zero interest rates. The report also showed global public investors, including sovereign wealth and pension funds as well as central banks, have bought at least $1 trillion of publicly quoted equities in recent years.
BoJ's governor Kuroda will speak in Tokyo at 06:00GMT.
23 Jun 2014 01:48GMT
AUD/USD - ... The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9430 after the release of much stronger-than-expected China's HSBC manufacturing PMI data which came in at 50.8 versus the economists' forecast of 49.7 n previous reading of 49.4.
Data to be released next week:
China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, Germany Markit service PMI, Markit manufacturing PMI, euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit service PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S. existing home sales on Monday.
Switzerland trade balance, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.S. consumer confidence, new home sales on Tuesday.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence, U.K. nationwide housing price, CBI distributive trades, U.S. PCE, durable goods, GDP, Markit service PMI on Wednesday.
France business climate, U.S. initial jobless claims, PCE price index, core PCE, personal consumption, personal income, Switzerland SNB quarterly bulletin on Thursday.
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan CPI core Tokyo, France consumer spending, GDP, Switzerland KOF indicator, Italy business confidence, euro zone business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, service sentiment, Germany CPI preliminary, HICP preliminary, Canada producer prices, University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jun 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jun 2014 02:27GMT
EUR/USD- ... The single currency retreated from last Fri's high at 1.3634 to 1.3565 after the release of weaker-than-expected German producer price, however, short-covering lifted price to 1.3600. Offers are now tipped at 1.3620-30 with stops seen abv last Thur's high at 1.3643. On the upside, some bids are located at 1.3580-70 with stops building up below 1.3560 n 1.3550.
Reuters reported that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf in an interview published on Saturday that the euro zone recovery was still weak, uneven and vulnerable and that interest rates would stay low over a longer period. Draghi said large-scale asset purchases are part of the central bank's toolkit, but for now it would focus on its latest set of stimulus measures. The ECB plans to offer banks targeted long-term loans, or TLTROs, of as much as 400 billion euros ($544 billion) for four years, with the condition that they boost credit to companies and households.
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny, in an interview published earlier in Austria's Kronen Zeitung said that "as soon as there's clear growth, i.e. more than two percent, then the change in rates will come. Nowotny said "from today's perspective, however, that will scarcely be before 2016."
Germany and eurozone will release their Markit service flash PMI at 07:30GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Jun 23: Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11965
23 Jun 2014 07:12GMT
Dlr's rebound to 11975 Fri signals re-test of
last Wednesday's 4-mth peak at 12000 would
be seen after consolidation, above would extend
to 12030/40 later.
Raise long entry for this move and only a daily
close below 11895 'prolongs' choppy trading, 11860.
STRATEGY : Buy at 11950
OBJECTIVE : 12000
STOP-LOSS : 11925
RES : 11975/12000/12040
SUP : 11940/11895/11835
AceTraderFx Jun 23: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 23 Jun 2014 00:04GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
102.06
55 HR EMA
102.02
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
13 HR RSI
61
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
102.80 - Jun 04 high
102.65 - Mon's high
102.35 - Wed's high
Support
101.61 - Last Fri's low
101.43 - May 29 low
101.19 - 80.9% r of 100.81-102.80
. USD/JPY- 102.12... The greenback spent a lackluster week gyrating inside a fairly narrow range of 101.73-102.35. Price ratcheted higher abv previous sup at 101.61 on Mon n then climbed to 102.35 b4 retreating back to 101.74 (Thur) on cross-buying of yen but dlr's broad-based strength lifted price to 102.20 Fri.
. Looking at the daily picture, although dlr's erratic fall fm Jun's high at 102.80 to 101.61 signals early 3-legged upmove fm May's 3-1/2 month bottom at 100.81 has formed a top there, as long as 101.19/21 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains, however, abv 102.80 is needed to retain bullish prospect of extending aforesaid rise fm 100.81 to next daily chart obj. at 103.02 but as broad outlook on dlr remains 'consolidative' (as evidenced by the horizontal movement in 13-day & 55-day emas), 103.50 (80.9% r of 104.13-100.81) shud cap upside n yield another retreat in Jul. In view of this analysis, buying dlr on dips or selling on upmove is the appropriate trading strategy this week.
. Today, despite Fri's rise fm 101.82 to 102.20 to 102.20 due to renewed cross-selling in yen, as long as 102.35 res holds, subsequent decline to 101.45 is still likely. Abv 102.35 res may risk stronger gain twd 102.80 b4 retreat.
AceTraderFx Jun 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Jun 2014 01:37GMT
USD/JPY- ... Despite last Fri's brief rebound from 101.74 to 102.20, U.S. dollar ratcheted lower to 101.82 yesterday due to the weakness in Nikkei-225 index futures in Chicago yesterday. Nikkei-225 index currently dropped by 92 points to 15277. Offers are now reported at 101.90-00 and more at 102.10-20. On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.70 and 101.60.
Trading is expected to be thin today as expectations for price swings in the dollar against the Japanese yen fell to a record low due to signs of an uneven U.S. economic recovery fueled bets the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs at unprecedented lows.
Kyodo news reported earlier on June 19 that Japan's cabinet may approve the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's growth plan today.
Yesterday, White House said 'Obama spoke to Russian President Putin on Monday, saying Russia will face additional costs if there are no concrete actions to de-escalate Ukraine situation.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Switzerland trade balance, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. consumer confidence, new home sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 24: Dollar remains little changed versus majors currencies after upbe
Market Review - 23/06/2014 22:48GMT
Dollar remains little changed versus majors currencies after upbeat U.S. data
The greenback ended the day little changed versus majority of its peers except the Japanese yen on Monday despite the release of better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales.
U.S. manufacturing PMI came in better-than-expected at 57.5 vs forecast of 56.5. Existing home sales rose by 4.9%, higher than expectation of 1.9%.
Although the single currency rose to session high at 1.3614 at European open, the release of weaker-than-expected PMIs from France, Germany and Eurozone pressured the pair lower and price dropped to an intra-day low at 1.3574 in European morning. Euro pared some of its losses and recovered to 1.3603 at New York open, however, renewed selling after the release of upbeat U.S. manufacturing PMI and existing home sales pushed the pair back down to 1.3581 before stabilizing.
France manufacturing and services PMI came in at 47.8 and 48.2 vs forecasts of 49.5 and 49.4 respectively. Germany manufacturing and services PMI was reported weaker-than-expected at 52.4 and 54.8 vs forecasts of 52.5 and 55.7 respectively. EZ manufacturing and services PMI came in at 51.9 and 52.8, lower than expectations of 52.2 and 53.3 respectively.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated from session high at 102.14 at Asian open to 101.82 in European morning on active cross-buying of yen together with risk aversion on continued geopolitical tension in Iraq. However, the greenback pared its losses and recovered to 101.94 in New York morning on dollar's weakness following upbeat U.S. data.
The British pound also rose in tandem with euro to 1.7050 at European open, however, renewed selling below last Thursday's 5-1/2 year high at 1.7064 capped intra-day gains there and price retreated to 1.7002 at New York open. Later, cable recovered to 1.7020 in New York afternoon on dollar's strength.
In other news, ECB's Nowotny said 'Eurozone economic rebound relatively weak; big danger is that costs of crisis not only fiscal but that potential growth rates limited; Germany increasingly becoming Europe's growth enginge.'
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Switzerland trade balance, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. consumer confidence, new home sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jun 2014 01:44GMT
USD/JPY - ... The greenback bounced briefly to 102.17 due to the release upbeat U.S. economic data, including consumer confidence and new home sales, however, renewed risk aversion due to the geopolitical tensions in Iraqi n Ukraine knocked price lower to 101.92 in late NY and then 101.87 in Asian morning.
Offers are now tipped at 102.00-10 whilst bids are located at 101.85, 101.75 and 101.65 with stops building up below 101.60.
WSJ reported that Syrian warplanes strike in western Iraq, killing at least 50 people. The strikes on Tuesday came as the Pentagon announced that the first 130 members of a potential 300 U.S. military advisers were in place in Baghdad to start assessing and improving the Iraqi army's ability to counter the gains of rebels led by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.
Bloomberg news reported that Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko called for immediate talks with leaders in Russia, Germany and France after pro-Russian rebels shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire.
Yesterday statements from Fed's Dudley said 'can get the unemployment rate considerably lower without an inflation problem; mid-2015 interest rate hike sounds like reasonable, but forecasts often "go astray"; Puerto Rico banking sector doing well given difficult operating environment.'
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Switzerland UBS consumption indicator, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence; U.K, CBI distributive trades, U.S. PCE, durable goods, GDP, and Markit service PMI (flash).